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Timor-Leste Country Risk Report 2015

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 23 pages

Core Views

There are numerous domestic issues in Timor-Leste that have yet tobe addressed, such as the high levels of poverty and unemployment,which could be a major source of social unrest. While Rui Maria deAraújo has replaced Xanana Gusmão as prime minister, we do notexpect this to have a major destabilising effect on domestic politics.Indeed, Gusmão remains in the government as minister of planningand strategic investment.Timor-Leste remains on course to record strong real GDP growthon the back of its vast hydrocarbon reserves and low base effects.However, an over-reliance on the oil and gas sector will expose thecountry to sector-specific risk.Dwindling oil production at the Bayu Undan and Kitan fields, andcontinued weak oil prices, pose challenges to the oil-reliant Timoreseeconomy in the long term, increasing the need for economicdiversification. While the newly formed government has taken stepsto accelerate economic diversification, the country's still poor businessenvironment, such as the lack of a skilled labour force, weakinfrastructure and poor access to credit will remain a drag over themedium term.

Table Of Contents

Timor-Leste Country Risk Report 2015
Executive Summary 5
Core Views 5
Key Risks 5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Index 7
Long-Term Political Outlook 8
Relative Political Stability Ahead, But Domestic Challenges Remain8
Timor-Leste had enjoyed relative stability under the leadership of Xanana Gusmão, who served as prime minister from 2007-2015, but
there are numerous domestic issues that have yet to be addressed, such as the high levels of poverty and unemployment, which could
be a major source of social unrest
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW8
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Economic Risk Index 13
Economic Activity 14
Ongoing Economic Diversification A Positive, But Challenges Remain14
The dwindling oil production at the Bayu Undan field and continued weak oil prices pose challenges to the oil-reliant Timorese
economy, increasing the need for economic diversification While the newly formed government has taken steps to accelerate economic
diversification, the still poor business environment will remain a drag over the medium term
Long-Term Economic Outlook 15
Oil Reliance Poses A Threat To Structural Growth15
Timor-Leste remains on course to record strong real GDP growth over the coming years on the back of its vast hydrocarbon reserves
and low base effects However, an over-reliance on the oil and gas sector will expose the country to sector-specific risk Meanwhile,
the development of the non-oil sector will only progress slowly owing to the country's poor business environment, such as the lack of a
skilled workforce and weak infrastructure
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS15
Chapter 3: Demographic Outlook 17
Demographic Outlook 2015 17
TABLE: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP (TIMOR-LESTE 1990-2025)18
TABLE: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP % (TIMOR-LESTE 1990-2025)18
TABLE: POPULATION HEADLINE INDICATORS (TIMOR-LESTE 1990-2025)19
TABLE: KEY POPULATION RATIOS (TIMOR-LESTE 1990-2025)19
TABLE: URBAN/RURAL POPULATION and LIFE EXPECTANCY (TIMOR-LESTE 1990-2025) 19
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook 21
Global Macro Outlook 21
Unfinished Business In 201621
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS21
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %22
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, % 22
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %23

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