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United Kingdom Country Risk Report Q2 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 43 pages

Core Views

The UK economy outperformed most major developed states in2015, and will continue to surpass the eurozone in 2016 and 2017.In light of positive structural economic reforms undertaken by thegovernment, coupled with flexible monetary and exchange ratepolicies, we remain bullish on the long-term economic prospectsfor the UK relative to the eurozone over the longer term.Major Forecast ChangesWe have revised up our 2015 estimate for the UK's current accountdeficit to 4.4% of GDP, from 5.0% previously, on the back ofstronger-than-expected growth in services exports and a narrowingin the primary account deficit.

Table Of Contents

United Kingdom Country Risk Report Q2 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Major Forecast Changes5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Economy Healthcheck: Underwhelming ECB Action Clears Path For Rate Hikes8
TABLE: ECONOMIC DASHBOARD9
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 10
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS11
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS11
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS11
External Trade And Investment Outlook 11
Gradual Improvement In External Accounts Lies Ahead11
We have revised up our 2015 estimate for the UK's current account deficit to 44% of GDP, from 50% previously, on the back of
stronger than-expected-growth in services exports and a narrowing in the primary account deficit Although the current account deficit
will remain large, a gradual narrowing is expected over the coming quarters
Outlook On External Position 12
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT12
TABLE: CAPITAL and FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE13
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS 14
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS 14
Monetary Policy 15
BoE To Hold Fire Until Q21615
With the first US rate hike now behind us, the Bank of England will follow suit However, the surprise cooling in UK wage growth in Q415
will prompt the MPC to hold fire until Q216
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY 16
Monetary Policy Framework 16
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook 16
Autumn Statement: Not The End Of Austerity16
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY17
Structural Fiscal Position 17
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast 19
The UK Economy To 2025 19
UK Will Outperform Eurozone Over The Long Term19
We hold to an upbeat assessment over the longer term and expect growth to outperform the eurozone Supportive of this view is the
relatively competitive nature of the UK economy, independent monetary and exchange rate policies as well as a major fiscal reforms
However, we warn that a number of challenges remain, such as an ageing workforce as well as low educational and training attainment
in the poorest areas
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS19
Chapter 3: Political Outlook 21
SWOT Analysis 21
BMI Political Risk Index 21
Domestic Politics 22
Brexit: Cameron Lays His Cards On The Table22
The demands laid out in British Prime Minister David Cameron's letter to the European Council President are likely to gain enough
concessions to enable his government to campaign for the UK to remain in the EU However, the demands are nowhere near
substantive enough to convince eurosceptic Conservative MPs to stand behind their leader and support the 'remain' campaign, and the
lack of concrete action on tackling immigration will ensure continued support for the 'leave' campaign
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW22
Long-Term Political Outlook 24
Eight Factors That Could Cloud The 2020 General Election24
The election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the UK's main opposition Labour party increases the chances of the governing Conservative
party winning the next general election in 2020 However, the UK faces a very eventful period over the next five years, and there is no
shortage of 'shocks' that could make the next election more unpredictable than currently envisaged
Chapter 4: Operational Risk 27
SWOT Analysis 27
Operational Risk Index 27
Operational Risk 28
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - LABOUR MARKET RISK28
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - LOGISTICS RISK32
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - CRIME AND SECURITY RISK 34
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK37
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook 39
Global Macro Outlook 39
Unfinished Business In 201639
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS39
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % 40
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, % 40
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % 41
TABLE: UNITED KINGDOM - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS 43

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