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  4. > The LED Revolution: Market Analysis and Insight On Reducing Manufacturing Costs

The High Brightness Light Emitting Diode (HB LED) market is exploding as unit shipments continue their upward growth. LEDs are creating a niche market for conventional suppliers of semiconductor processing tools. Markets for HB LEDs. backlight LEDs, and OLEDs are forecast.

Table Of Contents

The LED Revolution: Market Analysis and Insight On Reducing Manufacturing Costs
Chapter 1 Introduction 1-1

Chapter 2 Recent Progress in High Brightness LED Technology and Applications 2-1

2.1 LED: Theory of Operation 2-1
2.2 Intellectual Property Map 2-5
2.3 LED Manufacturing Technologies and Costs 2-7
2.4 LED Market General Illumination 2-13

Chapter 3 Processing Equipment 3-1

3.1 Introduction 3-1
3.2 MOCVD for SSL - Productivity Challenges and Solutions 3-3
3.3 Low temperature Remote Plasma Chemical Vapor Deposition (RPCVD) 3-13
3.3.1 RPCVD Process Advantages 3-13
3.4 Defect Inspection and Testing 3-15
3.5 Lithography 3-19
3.5.1 Steppers 3-19
3.5.2 Nanoimprint 3-20
3.5.3 Nanopatterning of LED Wafers 3-24

Chapter 4 Materials of Construction 4-1

4.1 Introduction 4-1
4.2 GaN-based LED for General Lighting 4-7
4.2.1 Methods to Improve White LED Efficiency 4-18
4.2.2 Time-to-Market for LED substrates 4-20
4.3 LED Phosphor Manufacturing Issues 4-21
4.3.1 Current LED Phosphor Manufacturing 4-21
4.3.2 LED Phosphor Cost 4-23

Chapter 5 Packaging and Assembly Issues for High Brightness LEDs 5-1

5.1 Packaging for HB LEDs 5-1
5.1.1 Bonding 5-5
5.1.2 Die/Ball Bonding 5-9
5.1.3 Scribing 5-12
5.2 Wafer Level Packaging HB LEDs 5-15
5.3 Thermal Issues 5-21
5.4 Test and Inspection 5-24

Chapter 6 National Programs As Innovation Drivers 6-1

6.1 DOE Solid-State Lighting Manufacturing Initiative 6-1
6.2 DOE Solid-State Lighting Program Mission and Goal 6-1
6.3 Major National Research Programs Pertaining to LEDs 6-4
6.4 Challenges Facing SSL Manufacturing 6-9
6.4.1 Inconsistent Color 6-10
6.4.2 Low Light Output 6-11
6.4.3 Challenges Facing Market Introduction 6-12

Chapter 7 OLED Lighting 7-1

7.1 Opportunities for Luminaire Manufacturers 7-1
7.2 Critical Issues for Continued OLED Market Growth 7-5
7.3 Manufacturing Options and Equipment Needs 7-9
7.4 Availability of Critical Materials 7-12
7.5 OLED Lighting Costs 7-13


Chapter 8 OLED Manufacturing 8-1

8.1 Deposition Equipment and Processes for OLED Lighting 8-1
8.2 General OLED Manufacturing Cost Considerations 8-10
8.3 Roll-to-Roll OLEDs 8-12
8.4 Lithography 8-22
8.5 Substrates and Encapsulation 8-23
8.5.1 Substrate and Encapsulation Material Selection 8-24
8.5.2 Substrate Coatings 8-25
8.5.3 Transparent Electrodes 8-26
8.5.4 Encapsulation 8-28
8.6 Inspection and Quality Control 8-30

Chapter 9 Outlook for the Worldwide OLED Market 9-1

9.1 Introduction 9-1
9.2 Passive Matrix Capacity and Demand 9-6
9.3 Active Matrix Capacity and Demand 9-9
9.4 Cost Challenges for OLED Lighting 9-11

Chapter 10 Outlook for the Worldwide High-Brightness LED Market 10-1

10.1 HB LED Technology 10-1
10.2 HB LED Market Overview and trends 10-4
10.2.1 Market Drivers for SSL 10-7
10.2.2 LED Backlights for Notebook PCs 10-8
10.2.3 LED Backlights for LCD TVs 10-10
10.2.4 LED Backlights for Other Applications 10-12
10.2.5 LED Lighting Market 10-14
10.2.6 LED Active Outdoor Display Market 10-16
10.2.7 LED Signal Market 10-18
10.2.8 LED Automotive Market 10-20
10.2.9 LED Mobile Market 10-22

List of Tables

2.1 Color, Wavelength Material Of LED 2-3
2.2 Light Source Comparison 2-17
2.3 Comparison of LED, HB-LED, UHB-LED Characteristics 2-19
3.1 Epitaxy Metrics from Initial Solid-State Lighting Manufacturing RandD Roadmap 3-5
3.2 Process Control Metrics 3-16
4.1 Production Method for Various LEDs 4-3
4.2 LED Cost Model: Impact of Substrate Choice 4-14
4.3 Comparison of $/klm for LED Made on Various 2" Substrates 4-15
5.1 Properties Of Die Bonding Processes 5-6
7.1 Comparison Of Lighting Technologies 7-2
7.2 OLED Displays vs OLED lighting 7-3
8.1 Manufacturing Roadmap for Sheet Processing of OLED Lighting Panels 8-16
8.2 Manufacturing Roadmap for Web Processing of OLED Lighting Panels 8-17
8.3 Projected Costs of OLED Lighting Panels (Sheet Processed) Stage 8-19
8.4 Projected Costs of OLED Lighting Panels (Web Processed) Stage 8-20
10.1 Forecast Of LED Backlights For Notebook PCs 10-9
10.2 Forecast Of LED Backlights For LCD TVs 10-11
10.3 Forecast Of LED Backlights For Other Application 10-13
10.4 Forecast Of LED Lighting Market 10-15
10.5 Forecast Of LED Active Outdoor Display Market 10-17
10.6 Forecast Of LED Signal Market 10-19
10.7 Forecast Of LED Automotive Market 10-21
10.8 Forecast Of LED Mobile Market 10-23
10.9 Top 10 LED Vendors 10-26

List of Figures

2.1 Operation of LED 2-2
2.2 Key Intellectual Property Relationships 2-6
2.3 DOE Roadmap 2-8
2.4 Relative Manufacturing Costs 2-10
2.5 Pareto Analysis Of SSL Manufacturing Costs 2-12
2.6 Market drivers for LED Biz and Applications 2-14
2.7 SSL vs. Classical Technologies 2-15
2.8 LED Performance vs. Traditional Light Sources 2-16
2.9 Energy Production and Use Comparison 2-18
2.10 White-LEDs for General Lighting Market estimates in $B to 2020 2-20
2.11 Wafer Needs for General Lighting (2” wafer equivalents, million units to 2020) 2-21
3.1 SSL - LED manufacturing with MOCVD: productivity and Cost Analysis 3-6
3.2 Larger Wafer Size: GaN LEDs 3-7
3.3 Global Shipments Of MOCVD Tools By Vendor 3-10
3.4 Global Shipments Of MOCVD Tools By Region 3-11
3.5 Diagram of RPCVD Reactor 3-13
3.6 Comparison between MOCVD and RPCVD 3-14
3.7 Nanoimprint Lithography System 3-21
3.8 The Phlatlight Chip 3-25
4.1 Regular LED (white) Front-End Steps 4-5
4.2 Current Blocking Layer 4-6
4.3 Regular LED (white) Production Costs for 100k wafers/year 4-12
4.4 HB LED (white) Production Costs for 100k wafers/year 4-13
4.5 Main Manufacturing Steps for GaN-based LED 4-16
4.6 Regular LED (white) Back-End 4-17
4.7 Methods to Improve White LED Efficiency 4-19
4.8 Phosphor Coating - Four Approaches 4-24
5.1 Hybrid Integration Approach to HD-LED Package 5-3
5.2 Chain Wire Bond 5-11
5.3 HB-LED with Silicon Carrier Submount 5-17
5.4 Silicon interposer for MEMS / LED Applications 5-18
5.5 High Brightness LED 5-19
5.6 SMD Package Cost Structure 5-20
5.7 Packaging Changes Result in Optical Improvements 5-22
5.8 Substrate Solutions for HB/HP LEDs 5-23
6.1 DOE Solid-State Lighting Program Strategy 6-2
6.2 DOE Efficacy Targets 6-3
6.3 Congressional Appropriations 6-6
6.4 SSL RandD Project Funding 6-7
6.5 Price Targets 6-8
7.1 Status of Technology Towards Lighting Targets 7-7
7.2 Maximizing Internal Quantum Efficiency 7-8
7.3 Manufacturing Options 7-10
7.4 Kodak VIST Deposition Source 7-11
7.5 OLED Lighting Costs - VTE process 7-14
7.6 OLED Lighting Costs: Glass Substrate 7-15
8.1 Steps of OLED Production 8-3
8.2 Industrial Coater Design Approaches 8-4
8.3 Comparison Cluster vs. In-Line - Gen 2 8-5
8.4 Comparison Cluster vs. In-Line - Gen 4/5 8-6
8.5 Process Flow for OLED stack 8-8
8.6 Comparison of Deposition Sources 8-9
8.7 Roll-to-Roll OLED Fabrication 8-15
9.1 Schematic of PMOLED 9-2
9.2 PMOLED Stack/Driving Architecture 9-3
9.3 Schematic of AMOLED 9-5
9.4 Passive Matrix OLED Capacity and Demand 9-8
9.5 Active Matrix OLED Capacity and Demand 9-10
10.1 LED Market by Sector 10-24
10.2 Worldwide LED Market Forecast 10-25

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