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EpiCast Report: Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection - Epidemiology Forecast to 2024

Summary

RSV is a common cause of pediatric respiratory infections, and virtually all children will have been infected by the virus by the age of two years. Also, RSV is recognized as an important cause of respiratory illness in adults. The majority of RSV infections present as mild upper respiratory illnesses that often self-resolve within two weeks, although about 1% of cases develop serious lower respiratory complications requiring hospitalization. In older adults, RSV can result in significant morbidity and mortality, and is easily transmissible in living facilities, such as nursing homes. Children under the age of two years and adults over 64 years of age, with certain health conditions, are most at risk for severe RSV infections, and it is therefore recommended that they receive prophylactic treatment.

In each of the 7MM, GlobalData epidemiologists determined that the prophylactic RSV population in 2014, which includes the preterm infant (less than 37 weeks gestational age) population that survived to 2 years of age, the population of infants with neonatal chronic lung disease (CLD), the population of children with congenital respiratory or neuromuscular diseases that compromise respiratory function, the population of children with hemodynamically significant congenital heart disease, and the population of third-trimester pregnant women, was highest for the US, followed by the 5EU (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and UK) and Japan. This trend was also seen in the hospitalized RSV population, where the US had the highest number of confirmed and estimated RSV hospitalized cases in 2014, followed by the 5EU and Japan.

GlobalData epidemiologists provide a well-rounded, evidence-based historical trend analysis and population forecast for the RSV prophylactic and hospitalized populations. This analysis covered all at-risk groups that are recommended for RSV prophylactic treatment. Each population, including the hospitalized population, was also segmented by ages (0 years, 1 year, and 2 years) and by sex, thereby providing a granular visualization of the RSV prophylactic and hospitalized market in the 7MM. Furthermore, the forecast is based on an in-depth analysis of a comprehensive set of factors that may impact the RSV prophylactic and hospitalized populations. These factors include trends in population changes, births, preterm births, infant mortality, and the disease incidence, prevalence, and mortality.

Scope

- The Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Infection EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and global trends for RSV infection in the seven major markets (7MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast of the for the pediatric population hospitalized due to RSV infection (hospitalized population), in addition to the pediatric and adult populations that are most at risk for severe RSV infection and are therefore eligible to receive prophylactic treatment (prophylactic population) in these markets.
- The RSV epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
- The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 10MM.

Reasons to buy

The RSV EpiCast report will allow you to -
- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global RSV market.
- Quantify patient populations in the global RSV market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
- Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the sex and age groups that present the best opportunities for RSV prophylactics and therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

Table Of Contents

EpiCast Report: Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection - Epidemiology Forecast to 2024
1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 4
1.1 List of Tables 6
1.2 List of Figures 7
2 Introduction 8
2.1 Catalyst 8
2.2 Upcoming Reports 8
3 Epidemiology 9
3.1 Disease Background 9
3.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 10
3.3 Global Trends 12
3.3.1 Preterm Infants and Children Born Preterm and Survived to Two Years of Age 13
3.3.2 Infants with Neonatal CLD 13
3.3.3 Children with Hemodynamically Significant Congenital Heart Disease 14
3.3.4 Children with Congenital Respiratory or Neuromuscular Diseases That Compromise Respiratory Function 15
3.3.5 Third-Trimester Pregnant Women 15
3.3.6 Hospitalizations for RSV Infection 16
3.4 Forecast Methodology 17
3.4.1 Sources Used 23
3.4.2 Sources Not Used 31
3.4.3 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 32
3.5 Epidemiological Forecast for RSV Infection (2014-2024) 41
3.5.1 Risk Groups for Severe RSV Infection in Children Less than Two Years 41
3.5.2 Preterm Births 47
3.5.3 Neonatal CLD 48
3.5.4 Third-Trimester Pregnant Women 49
3.5.5 RSV Hospitalizations in Children 50
3.6 Discussion 52
3.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 52
3.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis 54
3.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis 54
4 Appendix 56
4.1 Bibliography 56
4.2 About the Authors 64
4.2.1 Epidemiologists 64
4.2.2 Reviewers 64
4.2.3 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology 66
4.2.4 Global Head of Healthcare 66
4.3 About GlobalData 67
4.4 About EpiCast 67
4.5 Disclaimer 68

1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Severe RSV Infection 11
Table 2: 7MM, Sources Used to Determine the Preterm Infant Population, 2014 18
Table 3: 7MM, Sources Used to Determine the Incidence of Neonatal CLD, 2014 19
Table 4: 7MM, Sources Used to Determine the Incidence of Hemodynamically Significant Heart Disease in Children, 2014 20
Table 5: 7MM, Sources Used to Determine the Diagnosed Prevalence of Congenital Respiratory and Neuromuscular Diseases That Compromise Respiratory Function in Children, 2014 21
Table 6: 7MM, Sources Used to Determine the Third-Trimester Pregnant Women Population, 2014 22
Table 7: NICHD Neonatal CLD Severity Categorization 25
Table 8: 7MM, Children at Risk for Severe RSV Infection, Boys and Girls, Ages ?2 Years, N, 2014 43
Table 9: 7MM, Children at Risk for Severe RSV Infection, Boys and Girls, Ages ?2 Years, N, 2024 44
Table 10: 7MM, Preterm Births, Boys and Girls, Table 11: 7MM, Incident Cases of Neonatal CLD by Severity, Boys and Girls, Table 12: 7MM, Third-Trimester Pregnant Women, N, 2014 and 2024 50
Table 13: 7MM, Confirmed RSV Hospitalizations in Children, Ages 0-2 Years, N, 2014 51
Table 14: 7MM, Estimated RSV Hospitalizations in Children, Ages 0-2 Years, N, 2014 51

1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: Case Flow Map for RSV Prophylactic and Therapeutic Populations 23
Figure 2: Population Estimates and Births Forecast for the US, Boys and Girls, 1997-2024 33
Figure 3: 7MM, Children Born Preterm (Figure 4: 7MM, Children at Risk for Severe RSV Infection, Boys and Girls, Ages ?2 Years, N, 2014 46
Figure 5: 7MM, Children at Risk for Severe RSV Infection, Boys and Girls, Ages ?2 Years, N, 2024 47

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