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The telecoms market in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is transitioning from one dominated by mobile voice to one driven primarily by the growth of data services. In this report, we model eleven telecoms markets, which will account for about 70% of the SSA region's telecoms service revenue in 2020.

Table Of Contents

The Mobile services in Sub-Saharan Africa: trends and forecasts 2015-2020

Table of Contents


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5. Executive summary


6. Executive summary


7. Worldwide trends


8. Worldwide: Developing regions will have highest revenue growth, but NA will be largest retail revenue contributor by 2020


9. Worldwide: Mobile SIM penetration will increase to 108% by 2020, driven by service take-up in SSA, EMAP and DVAP


10. Worldwide: LTE's share of connections will be the highest in NA (92%) and DVAP (84%), while SSA will trail behind (5%)


11. Worldwide: OTT services and converged bundle services will have a downward pressure on ARPU


12. Regional trends


13. SSA: Total service revenue will reach USD53 billion in 2020, driven by growth opportunities in mobile handset data


14. Mobile penetration: Connections will increase in most countries, but growth will slow down


15. Mobile connections: 2G will remain the main technology in SSA,andnbsp;but LTE will account for only 5.2% of mobile connections in 2020


16. Geographical coverage: We model 11 telecoms markets, which will account for 70% of SSA's telecoms service revenue in 2020


17. Smartphones and LTE: South Africa will have the highest mobile LTE and smartphone penetration by 2020


18. Mobile ARPU: Spending on non-voice services will help to slow down ARPU decline in most of the countries



19. SSA-mobile: Penetration growth will be driven by demand for voice and Internet services


20. Country-level trends


21. Ghana: Increasing proliferation of smartphones and 3G availability from all six operators will help drive demand for data


22. Kenya: Strong demand for mobile services and success of mobile financial services will encourage continued growth


23. Nigeria: Demand for mobile handset data services is set to grow fast, offsetting declining voice and messaging revenue


24. South Africa: Competition and MTR cuts will impact revenue growth, while LTE take-up will benefit from new spectrum


25. Forecast methodology and assumptions


26. We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics


27. Our forecasts are informed by primary and secondary research for data collection, a rigorous methodology and our analysis of external drivers


28. A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our forecasts; this involves three main activities


29. About the authors and Analysys Mason


30. About the authors


31. About Analysys Mason


32. Research from Analysys Mason


33. Consulting from Analysys Mason


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List of figures:


Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2020


Figure 2: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2014-2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by region, worldwide


Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2010-2020


Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2014 and 2020


Figure 5: Mobile ARPU by region and worldwide, 2010-2020


Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2020


Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014-2020


Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014-2020


Figure 9: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2020


Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2020


Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation, by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2020


Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014 and 2020


Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2020


Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2020


Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2020


Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Sub-Saharan Africa


Figure 17: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Ghana, 2014-2020


Figure 18: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Kenya, 2014-2020


Figure 19: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Nigeria, 2014-2020


Figure 20: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, South Africa, 2014-2020


Figure 21: Data, research principles and external factors that inform our forecasting methodology

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