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  4. > South Africa Shipping Report Q1 2016

South Africa Shipping Report Q1 2016

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 89 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We expect positive growth across South Africa's ports in 2016. Many South African facilitieshad a poor 2014 in which volumes declined, but we estimate a return to growth in 2015 and expect that thiswill be cemented this year. That said, there are significant challenges to this outlook, stemming from theuncertain macroeconomic environment. The South African economy is being buffeted by external headwindsfrom the China slowdown and lower commodity prices, which is being exacerbated by domestic labourdisputes. Fundamentally, many of the ports require investment, and the port of Durban - the largestcontainer port in the country - has been silting up.

Headline Industry Data

- Richards Bay Port tonnage throughput in 2015 is forecast to expand by 2.2% in 2016. Growth will be2.3% in 2017. Over the medium term to 2019 we project a 2.2% average annual increase.
- Port of Durban container throughput is forecast to grow by 2.8% in 2016 and 3.4% in 2017. Growth willaverage 3.3% per annum in the medium-term forecast period to 2019.
- 2016 total trade growth is forecast at 4.3% and in 2016, and will average 4.1% per annum to 2019.

Table Of Contents

South Africa Shipping Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Shipping 9
Political 10
Economic 11
Operational Risk 12
Industry Forecast 14
Port Of Durban Throughput 14
Port Of Richards Bay Throughput 18
Table: Major Ports Data (South Africa 2012-2019) 21
Table: Trade Overview (South Africa 2012-2019) 23
Table: Key Trade Indicators (South Africa 2012-2019) 23
Table: South Africa's Main Import Partners, 2006-2013 24
Table: South Africa's Main Export Partners, 2006-2013 25
Market Overview 26
South Africa Container Shipping Market Overview 26
South Africa Company Profile 34
Deutsche Afrika-Linien (DAL) 34
Safmarine 36
Shipping - Global Industry View 40
Bright Spot For Shipping: Low Bunker Prices 40
Table: BMI Bunker Fuel (IFO180 and MGO) Price Forecast 40
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months) 40
Long-Term Outlook 43
Risks To Outlook 46
Global Company Strategy 47
Maersk Line 47
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) 56
CMA CGM 62
Evergreen Line 71
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON) 77
Macroeconomic Forecasts 83
Economic Analysis 83
Table: Economic Activity (South Africa 2010-2019) 85
Demographic Forecast 86
Demographic Outlook 86
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025) 87
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025) 87
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025) 88
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025) 88
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025) 89

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