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Sweet Baked Goods: U.S. Market Trends

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Packaged Facts
  • -
  • 173 pages

Sweet Baked Goods: U.S. Market Trends discusses how consumers generally eat sweet baked goods to indulge in a treat, with younger people in particular continually seeking out new exciting tastes and indulgent experiences. Increasingly however others are looking for healthier more nutritious indulgences, or better for you� treats that taste good. Convenience continues to be a significant trend as busy consumers seek out minis�, single packs and other products packaged for on-the-go snacking. Smaller-size products like these also address the needs of the growing single or dual household segment, older people, and consumers watching their weight or overall health.

Packaged Facts projects the packaged sweet baked goods market will continue to be challenged in the near future with retail dollar sales projected to grow by a CAGR of 2.8% to reach $23 billion in 2019. Overall volume will likely remain flat as consumers stay concerned about health and diet, and increasingly seek out healthier snacks, or when they want to indulge, fresher baked goods from in-store and independent bakeries. Lower-priced private label products will put pressure on national brand marketers that as the report notes will have to continue innovating with product, marketing and retail strategies.

Scope of Report

Sweet Baked Goods: U.S. Market Trends presents a detailed analysis of the U.S. consumer market for packaged sweet baked goods sold in retail outlets, excluding independent and in-store bakeries. It outlines key issues and trends affecting the overall market and analyzes all product categories including shelf-stable, refrigerated, and frozen products as well as segments that include cookies, cakes, pies, bakery snacks, doughnuts, muffins, pastry/Danish/coffee cake, cheesecakes and toaster pastries/tarts. Sweet Baked Goods: U.S. Market Trends combines Packaged Facts' report Packaged Sweet Baked Snacks and Desserts: U.S. Market Trends published in December 2013 with sweet goods (doughnuts, muffins, pastry/Danish/coffee cake, and toaster pastries/tarts) previously covered in our report Packaged Breakfast Baked Goods: U.S. Market Trends also published in December 2013.

Methodology

The information in this report was obtained from both primary and secondary research. Primary research included proprietary Packaged Facts online consumer surveys as well as consultation with industry sources and on-site examinations of the retail sector. Secondary research entailed gathering data from relevant trade, business and government sources, as well as company promotional literature and annual reports.

Our estimates of market size and company performance are based on various sources including reported revenues of product manufacturers and retailers, publications and other market research sources. Our analysis of consumer trends relies on data from various sources including national online consumer usage surveys conducted in November 2015 by Packaged Facts, and Simmons National Consumer Surveys for Spring 2005 through Spring 2015 from Experian Marketing Services. The Packaged Facts national online consumer surveys reflect a panel of 2,000 U.S. adults (age 18+) that is balanced to the national population on the primary demographic measures of gender, age bracket, race/ethnicity, geographic region, marital status, presence or absence of children in the household, and household income. On an ongoing basis, Experian Marketing Services conducts booklet-based surveys of a large and random sample of consumers (approximately 25,000 for each 12-month survey compilation) who in aggregate represent a statistically accurate cross-section of the U.S. population.

Table Of Contents

Sweet Baked Goods: U.S. Market Trends
Chapter 1: Executive Summary
Introduction
Scope of Report
Methodology
Product Category and Segment Definitions
Packaged sweet baked goods categories and segments using IRI breakouts include:
Areas Outside Scope
The Market
Packaged Sweet Baked Goods Market Sales at $20 Billion in 2014
Figure 1-1 Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Sweet Baked Goods,2010“2014 (in millions)
Category Sales: Shelf-stable Products Dominate
Product Segment Sales
Shelf-stable
Sales by Retail Channel
Figure 1-2 Dollar Sales Share by Retail Channel for Packaged Sweet Baked Goods, 2015 (percent)
Market Forecast
Figure 1-3 Projected Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Sweet Baked Goods, 2014“2019 (in millions)
The Marketers
Mondel Leads the Market
Figure 1-4 Retail Dollar Share for Leading Marketers of Packaged Shelf-Stable Sweet Baked Goods, 2015 (percent)
Private Label a Significant Factor
Marketing, New Product, and Retailing Trends
Marketing Trends
360-Degree Marketing
Co-creating Promotions with Consumers
Product Trends
Clean Label
No Funky Stuff
Illustration 1-1: Spunkmeyer No Funky Stuff� Cookies
New Tastes and Experiences
Combination Products Blend Tastes and Textures of Favorite Products
Retail Trends
Increased Focus on Convenience Stores
Buy Now� on E-Commerce
Illustration 1-2: Mondel E-Commerce Initiative
The Consumer
Americans Love to Snack
Americans Eat Healthier, but Also Indulge
Table 1-1 Healthy vs. Indulgent Attitudes About Food, 2005-2015 (percent)
The Percentage of Households Eating Cookies Declines, but Most Americans Still Love Them
Bar Consumption Has Gone Up as Snack Cake Eating Has Gone Down
Perceptions and Purchase Habits in Shelf Stable Aisle Compared to In-
Store and Independent Bakeries
Figure 1-5 Where Consumers Purchased Selected Sweet Baked Goods in the Last 30 Days, 2015 (percent)
Chapter 2: The Market
Introduction
Scope of Report
Methodology
Product Category and Segment Definitions
Packaged sweet baked goods categories and segments using IRI breakouts include:
Areas Outside Scope
Market Size and Growth
Packaged Sweet Baked Goods Market Sales at $20 Billion in 2014
Figure 2-1 Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Sweet Baked Goods,2010“2014 (in millions)
Dollar Sales Growth Slows Down in Last Two Years
Table 2-1 Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Sweet Baked Goods,2010“2014 (in millions)
Factors Affecting Market Growth
Lagging Economy Impacts Consumer Spending
Figure 2-2 Change in Real GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures, 2007“2014 (percent change)
Median Incomes Down from 2007 High
Figure 2-3 Real Median Household Income, 2003-2013 (dollars)
Sluggish Growth of Household Formations
Figure 2-4 Number of U.S. Households, 2004-2014 (millions)
Category Sales: Shelf-stable Products Dominate
Figure 2-5 Retail Dollar Share for Packaged Sweet Baked Goods Categories, 2014 (percent)
Table 2-2 Retail Category Dollar Sales of Packaged Sweet Baked Goods, 2010“2014 (in millions)
Product Segment Sales
Shelf-stable
Figure 2-6 Share of Dollar Sales by Shelf-Stable Product
Segment for Packaged Sweet Baked Goods, 2014 (percent)
Table 2-3 IRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Shelf-Stable Sweet
Baked Goods Product Segments, 2014-2015 (dollar, unit and volume sales in millions)
Refrigerated and Frozen
Table 2-4 IRI-Tracked Sales of Refrigerated and Frozen Sweet Baked Goods Product Segments, 2014-2015 (dollar, unit and volume sales in millions)
Sales by Retail Channel
Figure 2-7 Share of Dollar Sales by Retail Channel for Packaged Sweet Baked Goods, 2015 (percent)
Table 2-5 Retail Dollar Sales of Sweet Baked Goods by Retail Channel, 2015 (millions)
Market Forecast
Shelf-stable cakes
Figure 2-8 Projected Retail Dollar Sales of Packaged Swee Baked Goods, 2014“2019 (in millions)
Chapter 3: The Marketers
Overview
Private Label a Significant Factor in Market
Table 3-1 Selected Private-Label Food Brands with Sweet Baked Goods, 2015
Private Label Accounts for Quarter of Shelf-Stable Sweet Baked Goods Sales
Table 3-2 Private Label Dollar and Volume Sales as a Percentage of Total Shelf-Stable Sweet Baked Goods, 2014-2015
Leading Marketers of Shelf-Stable Packaged Sweet Baked Goods
Figure 3-1 Retail Dollar Share for Leading Marketers of Packaged Shelf-Stable Sweet Baked Goods, 2015 (percent)
Figure 3-2 Retail Dollar Share for Leading Marketers of Packaged Shelf-Stable Sweet Baked Goods, 2014 (percent)
Table 3-3 IRI-Tracked Sales of Packaged Sweet Baked Goods Marketers, 2014-2015 (millions of dollars, percent)
Shelf-Stable Cookies
Table 3-4 IRI-Tracked Sales of Leading Packaged Shelf-Stable Cookie Marketers, 2014-2015 (millions of dollars, percent)
Shelf-Stable Bakery Snacks (includes cupcakes, brownies)
Table 3-5 IRI-Tracked Sales of Leading Packaged Shelf-Stable Bakery Snack Marketers, 2014-2015 (millions of dollars, percent)
Shelf-Stable Cakes
Table 3-6 IRI-Tracked Sales of Leading Packaged Shelf-Stable Cake Marketers, 2014-2015 (millions of dollars, percent)
Shelf-Stable Doughnuts
Table 3-7 IRI-Tracked Sales of Leading Packaged Shelf-Stable Doughnut Marketers, 2014-2015 (millions of dollars, percent)
Shelf-Stable Pastry/Danish/Coffee Cakes
Table 3-8 IRI-Tracked Sales of Leading Packaged Shelf-Stable Pastry/Danish/ Coffee Cake Marketers, 2014-2015 (millions of dollars, percent)
Shelf-Stable and Frozen Toaster Pastries/Tarts
Table 3-9 IRI-Tracked Sales of Leading Packaged Shelf-Stable Toaster Pastries/ Tarts Marketers, 2014-2015 (millions of dollars, percent)
Shelf-Stable Muffins
Table 3-10 IRI-Tracked Sales of Leading Packaged Shelf-Stable Muffin Marketers, 2014-2015 (millions of dollars, percent)
Shelf-Stable Pies
Table 3-11 IRI-Tracked Sales of Leading Packaged Shelf-Stable Pie Marketers, 2014-2015 (millions of dollars, percent)
Refrigerated and Frozen Sweet Baked Goods
Table 3-12 IRI-Tracked Sales of Refrigerated and Frozen Product Segments, 2014-2015 (millions of dollars, percent)
Mergers, Acquisitions, Divestitures
Competitive Profiles
Mondel International
Table 3-13 Mondel International Global Sales by Product Category, 2014 (percent)
Table 3-14 Mondel International Packaged Sweet Baked Goods
McKee Foods Corporation
Table 3-15 McKee Foods Packaged Sweet Baked Goods
Kellogg Company
Table 3-16 Kellogg Company Packaged Sweet Baked Goods
Bimbo Bakeries USA
Table 3-17 Bimbo Bakeries Packaged Sweet Baked Goods
Hostess Brands
Table 3-18 Hostess Brands Packaged Sweet Baked Goods
Campbell Soup Company (Pepperidge Farm)
Table 3-19 Pepperidge Farm Packaged Sweet Baked Goods
Flowers Foods
Table 3-20 Flowers Foods Packaged Sweet Baked Goods
General Mills
Table 3-21 General Mills Packaged Sweet Baked Goods
ConAgra
Table 3-22 ConAgra Packaged Sweet Baked Goods
Krispy Kreme Doughnut Corporation
Table 3-23 Krispy Kreme Packaged Sweet Baked Goods
Snyder's-Lance, Inc.
Table 3-24 Snyder's-Lance Packaged Sweet Baked Goods
Chapter 4: Marketing, New Product, and Retail Trends
Marketing Trends
360-Degree Marketing
Illustration 4-1: Oreo Thins 360-Degree Marketing Campaign
Connecting with Consumers In-Store and Online
Illustration 4-2: Weight Watchers Tasting Is Believing Challenge
Use of Tie-Ins Continue to Extend Awareness
Mondel Continues Sports Sponsorships
Illustration 4-3: Mondel Sponsorships
Movie Tie-Ins Reach Kids
Illustration 4-4 Movie Tie-Ins
Co-creating Promotions with Consumers
Illustration 4-5: Pop-Tarts New PBandJ Flavor Event
Illustration 4-44: Oreo Colorfilled
From Foodservice to Retail
Illustration 4-6: Foodservice to Retail Brands
Acquiring Makers of Better for You Products
Product Trends
Better for You a Key Driver
Clean Label
Mondel's Mindful Snacking
Trans Fats
Gluten Free Continues On Uptrend
Illustration 4-7: Gluten-Free Products
Allergen Free
Illustration 4-8: Allergen Free Products
Non GMO Part of Free-From� Trend
Illustration 4-9: Tasty Brand Non-GMO Verified Sandwich Creme Cookies
Simply Simple Brand Names
Illustration 4-10: Simply Made and Simply Eight Cookies
No Funky Stuff
Illustration 4-11: Spunkmeyer No Funky Stuff� Cookies
Touting Real, Fresh Ingredients
Illustration 4-12: Christie Cookie
Popularity of Grains Expands
Illustration 4-13: Whole and Multi-Grain Products
Illustration 4-14: Essential Eating Sprouted Foods Sprouted Cookies
Illustration 4-15: Jovial Einkorn Cookies
Fiber One Surges
Illustration 4-16: Fiber One Sweet Baked Goods
Better For You Muffins
Illustration 4-17: Muffin Revolution Muffins
Thin Is In More Than Ever
Illustration 4-18: Thin Cookies
Minis for Portion Control
Illustration 4-19: Mini Products Promoting Portion Control
Breakfast Biscuits Expand
Illustration 4-20: Breakfast Cookies/Biscuits
Fortified, Functional Cookies
Illustration 4-21: Fully Functional Cookies
High-Protein Cookies
Illustration 4-22: Complete Cookie
New Tastes and Experiences
Salt and Sweet Is Fully Mainstream
Illustration 4-23: Salty and Sweet Baked Goods
Beyond Salt and Sweet
Illustration 4-24: Sweet and Spicy Combinations
Savory Snacks Get Sweet
Illustration 4-25: Sweet Savory Snacks
Combination Products Blend Tastes and Textures of Favorite Products
Illustration 4-26: Hybrid Products
Tapping into Ethnic Traditions
Illustration 4-27: Ethnic-Inspired Treats
Combining Well-Known Cookies and Candies
Illustration 4-28: Cookies and Candies
Limited Edition Continues to Flourish
Illustration 4-29: Limited Edition Products
Decadence from Gourmet to Mass
Illustration 4-30: Red Velvet Packaged Sweet Baked Goods
Illustration 4-31: Trader Joe's Cookie Butter Products
Convenience
Minis for On-The-Go Convenience
Illustration 4-32: Minis Positioned For On-The-Go Convenience
Single-Serve
Illustration 4-33: Edwards Single Serve Repackage
Illustration 4-34: CakeLove in a Jar
Retailing Trends
Starbucks Selling French Baker's Cookies in New York Stores
Illustration 4-35: Michel and Augustin Products Packaged for
Starbucks
In-Store Bakeries Continue to Challenge Center Store
Illustration 4-36: In-Store Bakeries
Micro Markets a New Retail Trend
Illustration 4-37: Micro Markets
ALDI Reformulates Exclusive Brand Food Products
Illustration 4-38: ALDI Better For You Initiatives
Increased Focus on Convenience Stores
Illustration 4-39: C-store Products
Illustration 4-40: General Mills C-Store Consumers
Mondel Looks for Retail Innovation
Shopper Futures
Illustration 4-41: Mondel Shopper Futures
Buy Now� on E-Commerce
Illustration 4-43: Mondel E-Commerce Initiative
Facebook Partnership
Illustration 4-44: Mondel Facebook Partnership
Subscription Snack Boxes
Illustration 4-45: Subscription Snack Boxes
Chapter 5: The Consumer
Sources
Americans Love to Snack
Table 5-1 Consumer Attitudes about Snacking: Agree a Lot/Little, 2005-2015 (percent)
More Than Half of American Adults Watch Diet
Buy Foods with Less Fat, Calories, Sugar, Salt, More Fiber Natural/Organic
Table 5-2 Adults Watching Diet, Reasons and Foods Eaten To Watch Diet, 2005-2015 (percent)
A Third of American Households Eat Low Fat/Fat Free Foods
Table 5-3 Type of Low Fat/Fat Free Foods Eaten Most Often by Households, 2005-2015 (percent)
Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Low Fat/Fat Free Foods, Cookies and Chips
Table 5-4 Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Low Fat/Fat Free Foods, Cookies and Chips, 2015 (index)
Americans Eat Healthier, but Also Indulge
Table 5-5 Healthy vs. Indulgent Attitudes About Food, 2005-2015(percent)
Demographic Characteristics of Healthy and Indulgent Eaters
Table 5-6 Demographic Characteristics of Healthy� and
Unhealthy� Eaters, 2015 (index)
Over 50% of Adults Tending to Cut Back on Sweet Baked Goods
Figure 5-1 Adults Cutting Back on Sweet Baked Goods and Salty Snacks, 2015 (percent)
Less Than 20% of Adults Say They Switched to Healthier Versions of
Sweet Baked Goods
Figure 5-2 Adults Who Switched to Healthier Versions of Selected Products in Last 12 Months, 2015 (percent)
The Percentage of Households Eating Cookies Declines, but Most Americans Still Love Them
Table 5-7 Households That Eat Ready-To-Eat Cookies and Kind/Type Eaten Most Often, 2005-2015 (percent)
Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Bite-Size Cookies Compared to Eaters of Any Cookies
Table 5-8 Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Bite-Size Cookies Compared to Eaters of Any Cookies, 2015 (index)
Nabisco is Favorite Cookie Master Brand
Table 5-9 Brand of Cookies Eaten Most Often by Households, 2005-2015 (percent)
Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Nabisco Cookies Compared to Store Brand Cookie Eaters
Table 5-10 Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Nabisco Cookies Compared to Eaters of Store Brand Cookies, 2015 (index)
Snack Cake Consumption Down Over Last 10 Years
Table 5-11 Households That Eat Ready-To-Eat Snack Cakes and Type Eaten Most Often, 2005-2015 (percent)
Bar Consumption Has Gone Up as Snack Cake Eating Has Gone Down
Figure 5-3 Households That Eat Breakfast/Cereal/Granola Bars and Snack Cakes Most Often, 2005-2015 (percent)
Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat
Breakfast/Cereal/Granola Bars and Snack Cakes
Table 5-12 Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Breakfast/Cereal/ Granola Bars and Snack Cakes, 2015(index)
Little Debbie and Hostess Fight it Out as Most Popular Snack Cake Brands
Table 5-13 Brand of Ready-To-Eat Snack Cakes Eaten Most Often by Households, 2005-2015 (percent)
Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Little Debbie and Hostess Ready-To-Eat Snack Cakes
Table 5-14 Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Little Debbie and Hostess Ready-To-Eat Snack Cakes, 2015(index)
Doughnut Consumption Declines but 60% of Americans Eat Them
Table 5-15 Households That Eat Doughnuts and Brand Eaten Most Often, 2005-2015 (percent)
Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Dunkin' Donuts, Krispy Kreme and Hostess Doughnuts
Table 5-16 Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Selected Brands of Doughnuts, 2015 (index)
40% of American Households Eat Breakfast Pastries
Table 5-17 Households That Eat Breakfast Pastries and Type Eaten Most Often, 2005-2015 (percent)
Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Selected Types of Breakfast Pastries
Table 5-18 Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Selected Types of Breakfast Pastries, 2015 (index)
Little Debbie, Hostess and Entenmann's Most Popular Breakfast Pastries
Table 5-19 Brand of Breakfast Pastries Eaten Most Often by Households, 2005-2015 (percent)
Nearly 30% of Households Eat Packaged Muffins
Table 5-20 Brand of Packaged Muffins Eaten Most Often by Households, 2005-2015 (percent)
More Than a Third of Households Eat Toaster Pastries
Table 5-21 Brand of Toaster Pastries Eaten Most Often by Households, 2005-2015 (percent)
Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Kellogg's Pop Tarts and Pillsbury Toaster Strudel
Table 5-22 Demographic Characteristics of Adults Who Eat Leading Toaster Pastry Brands, 2015 (index)
Consumers Believe In-Store and Independent Bakeries Sell Fresher, Higher-Quality Products
Table 5-23 Selected Consumer Quotes about Preference for Purchasing Sweet Baked Goods from In-Store or Independent Bakeries, 2015
Consumers Prefer Buying Specific Products in Different Retail Settings
Figure 5-4 Where Consumers Purchased Selected Sweet Baked Goods in the Last 30 Days, 2015 (percent)

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