Keywords : wind energy, Renewable energy, wind power, aerogenerator, renewable source, windpower
Wind energy has become the most widely adopted source of renewable energy around the world, with approximately 300,000 wind turbines installed globally, representing an aggregate generation capacity nearing 200 gigawatts. In 2009, wind energy accounted for approximately 2.1% of the total electricity generated worldwide and 55% of electricity generated from renewable sources. Despite its considerable lead on other renewable energy technolog...
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Wind energy has become the most widely adopted source of renewable energy around the world, with approximately 300,000 wind turbines installed globally, representing an aggregate generation capacity nearing 200 gigawatts. In 2009, wind energy accounted for approximately 2.1% of the total electricity generated worldwide and 55% of electricity generated from renewable sources.
Despite its considerable lead on other renewable energy technologies, the wind industry is far from mature. We estimate that the market for wind turbines will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 19% to reach a market size of over $185 billion by 2015. This growth is expected to be driven by an aggressive expansion of China’s wind industry, the emergence and adoption of offshore wind farms and an increase in project finance availability as credit markets recover from the economic downturn.
Industry growth does not, however, affect all wind businesses equally. Today’s wind energy industry is a complex landscape of companies, working across heterogeneous geopolitical climates via a diverse range of business models and operational strategies. This report aims to help potential investors understand the size and growth characteristics of the various product, value chain, geographic and customer segments of the wind energy market. We provide a number of quantitative and qualitative analyses of regulatory, strategic and financial issues to assist investors in navigating the complex and constantly evolving sphere of supply chain dynamics, competitive forces, regulatory incentives, regional trends and other external factors that may influence investments in wind energy companies.
Investors spanning a spectrum of asset classes invested an estimated $67 billion in new capital in the wind industry in 2009—an amount greater than all other segments of renewable energy combined. The highly concentrated wind turbine assembly and manufacturing segment is likely to be of interest to public equities investors, while the significantly more fragmented components manufacturing and wind farm development segments may pique the interest of private equity firms. Meanwhile, lenders and asset-focused investors are likely to be drawn to the downstream end of the wind value chain by investing in wind farm operations. Regardless of one’s asset class of interest, the availability of diverse business models in the wind industry, in combination with strong overall end-market growth and favorable macro trends render it an attractive sector for a broad range of investors.
While plenty of attractive opportunities exist in wind, investors new to the industry would benefit greatly from the analysis provided by this report of the key trends, drivers and risk factors associated with investing in the wind energy industry.
Global Renewable Energy Industry
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION
- INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
- BRIEF HISTORY OF THE INDUSTRY
- BASICS OF WIND ENERGY
- WIND TURBINE CHARACTERISTICS
- COMPONENTS OF A WIND TURBINE
INDUSTRY COMPOSITION
- WIND INDUSTRY SUBSECTORS
- INDUSTRY VALUE CHAIN
- INDUSTRY FRAGMENTATION
INDUSTRY SIZE
- SIZING METHODOLOGY
- ESTIMATED INDUSTRY SIZE
- INDUSTRY BREAKDOWN BY SUBSECTOR AND VALUE CHAIN
- INDUSTRY BREAKDOWN BY GEOGRAPHY
INDUSTRY GROWTH
- HISTORICAL GROWTH
- FORECAST AND DRIVERS
INDUSTRY TRENDS AND THEMES
- GROWTH OF OVERALL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET
- REGULATORY OBSTACLES AND INFLUENCE
- EFFECTS OF THE GLOBAL CREDIT CRISIS
- UNDERSTANDING GRID PARITY
- COMPETITION WITH OTHER ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCES
- UNDERSTANDING SITE SELECTION
- OFFSHORE WIND
- CHINA’S EMERGENCE IN THE GLOBAL WIND ENERGY MARKETPLACE
STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
- FIVE FORCES ANALYSIS
- SWOT ANALYSIS
- CUSTOMER SEGMENTS
REGULATORY MATTERS
- OVERVIEW OF REGULATORY STRUCTURES
- GLOBAL REGULATORY LANDSCAPE
- U.S. REGULATORY LANDSCAPE
- REGULATORY TRENDS TO WATCH
INVESTMENT RISKS AND MITIGANTS
- DISCUSSION OF INDUSTRY RISK FACTORS
- DILIGENCE QUESTIONS FOR POTENTIAL INVESTMENTS
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
- REVENUE GROWTH OF PUBLICLY TRADED COMPANIES
- PROFITABILITY OF PUBLICLY TRADED COMPANIES
- OPERATING METRICS OF PUBLICLY TRADED COMPANIES
- CAPITALIZATION METRICS OF PUBLICLY TRADED COMPANIES
- PUBLIC COMPARABLES VALUATION
- HISTORICAL VALUATION TRENDS
- WIND INDUSTRY TRANSACTIONS
KEY PLAYERS
- PUBLIC COMPANY PROFILES
- INVESTMENT FIRMS ACTIVE IN THE WIND INDUSTRY
USEFUL RESOURCES FOR FURTHER RESEARCH
Exhibit 1 – U.S. Generation Capacity by Energy Type, 2009
Exhibit 2 – Photographs of Early Wind Energy Technologies
Exhibit 3 – Wind Power Classification Ratings
Exhibit 4 – Wind Resource Map of the World
Exhibit 5 – Wind Turbine Axis Orientation
Exhibit 6 – Artist’s Rendering of the Aerogenerator X Vertical Axis Turbine
Exhibit 7 – Turbine Size Specifications
Exhibit 8 – Fixed Foundations for Offshore Turbines
Exhibit 9 – Floating Foundations for Offshore Turbines
Exhibit 10 – Diagram of Wind Turbine Component Groups
Exhibit 11 – Illustration of Nacelle Components
Exhibit 12 – Wind Energy Industry Sub-segment Map
Exhibit 13 – Wind Energy Industry Value Chain
Exhibit 14 – Global and U.S. Market Share by Company (in MW Installed), 2009
Exhibit 15 – Historical Market Share in the U.S., 2005-2009
Exhibit 16 – Fragmentation and Market Share of Small Wind Companies, 2009
Exhibit 17 – Methods of Calculating Wind Industry Size
Exhibit 18 – Wind Industry Size by Sub-Sector ($ in Millions), 2009
Exhibit 19 – Composition of the Global and U.S Wind Energy Markets by Sub-Segment, 2009
Exhibit 20 – Global and U.S. Wind Industry Size Estimates by Sub-Sector and Value Chain, 2009
Exhibit 21 – Wind Turbine Market Shares by Country, June 2010
Exhibit 22 – Market Share of Top 5 Countries by Installed Capacity (GW), 2005-June 2010
Exhibit 23 – Top 10 Countries by Capacity Installed from 2005 to 2Q 2010 (GW)
Exhibit 24 – Growth Rates of Top 10 Fastest Growing Markets Under 1 GW, 2008-2009
Exhibit 25 – Top 10 States by Installed Capacity
Exhibit 26 – Top Ten Largest Wind Farms in the United States
Exhibit 27 – Map of Installed Capacity in the United States
Exhibit 28 – Historical Growth of the Global Wind Market (1990-2009)
Exhibit 29 – Historical Growth of the Global Offshore Wind Market (1991-2009)
Exhibit 30 – Historical Growth of the U.S. Small Wind Market (2004-2009)
Exhibit 31 – Global Wind Turbine Installations Market Forecast, 2009-2015 ($ billions)
Exhibit 32 – Wind Energy Industry Forecast for Large-Scale Onshore Turbines, 2009-2015 (MW)
Exhibit 33 – Wind Energy Industry Forecast for Offshore Turbines, 2009-2015 (MW)
Exhibit 34 – Wind Energy Industry Forecast for Small Wind Turbines, 2009-2015 (MW)
Exhibit 35 – Wind Energy Industry Forecast for China, 2009-2015 (MW)
Exhibit 36 – Forecast Market Share of Cumulative Installed Capacity by Region (MW), 2009-2015
Exhibit 37 – U.S. Wind Energy Project Asset Financing Deals ($ millions), 2001-2009
Exhibit 38 – Factors Influencing Grid Parity
Exhibit 39 – Competing Sources of Energy
Exhibit 40 – Factors Influencing Long-Term Potential of Alternative Energy Sources
Exhibit 41 – Comparison of Competing Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy Sources
Exhibit 42 – Map of Earth’s Exergy Flows
Exhibit 43 – Annual Wind Resource Map of the United States
Exhibit 44 – List of Offshore Wind Projects Installed as of Q2 2010
Exhibit 45 – Installation Growth in China (MW), 2000-2009
Exhibit 46 – Wind Energy Industry Five Forces Analysis, Components Manufacturers
Exhibit 47 – Wind Energy Industry Five Forces Analysis, Turbine Manufacturers
Exhibit 48 – Wind Energy Industry Five Forces Analysis, Wind Farm Developers & Installers
Exhibit 49 – 2009 Global Small Wind Sales by On-Grid vs. Off-Grid (Units and kW)
Exhibit 50 – U.S. Wind Energy Capacity by End-Market Customer Type, 2009
Exhibit 51 – Overview of the Types of Incentives and Regulations
Exhibit 52 – Four Types of Government Influence on the Wind Industry
Exhibit 53 – Summary of Subsidies, Incentives, Regulations and Other Drivers in Top 10 Countries
Exhibit 54 – Map of State Wind Energy Policies in the U.S.
Exhibit 55 – Denmark Case Study: Reaction to Regulatory Incentive Cuts
Exhibit 56 – Current Installed Capacity Versus Expected 2009-2030 Growth, by Region
Exhibit 57 – Relationship between Wind Stocks and Crude Oil Prices, 2009-2010
Exhibit 58 – Sample Due Diligence Questions for Wind Energy Companies
Exhibit 59 – Average Revenue Growth by Value Chain, 2006-2010E
Exhibit 60 – Average Gross Margin by Value Chain, 2006-2010E
Exhibit 61 – Average EBITDA Margin by Value Chain, 2006-2010E
Exhibit 62 – Average A/R Days by Value Chain, 2006-2010E
Exhibit 63 – Average A/P Days by Value Chain, 2006-2010E
Exhibit 64 – Average Inventory Days by Value Chain, 2006-2010E
Exhibit 65 – Avg. Net Working Capital as % of Revenue by Value Chain, 2006-2010E
Exhibit 66 – Current Ratio by Value Chain, 2006-2010E
Exhibit 67 – Total Debt / Capitalization by Value Chain, 2006-2010E
Exhibit 68 – Net Debt / EBITDA by Value Chain, 2006-2010E
Exhibit 69 – CapEx as % of Revenue by Value Chain, 2006-2010E
Exhibit 70 – Public Comparables Analysis by Value Chain
Exhibit 71 – Indexed Stock Price Performance by Wind Industry Value Chain, 2008-2010
Exhibit 72 – New Financial Investment & Acquisitions by Renewables Sector, 2009
Exhibit 73 – Transactions by Renewable Technology and Type, 2009 ($ billions)
Exhibit 74 – Selected Wind Industry Transactions, 2009-2010
Exhibit 75 – Wind Industry Resources: Industry Associations
Exhibit 76 – Wind Industry Resources: Relevant Websites
Exhibit 77 – Wind Industry Resources: Conferences & Events
Exhibit 78 – Wind Industry Resources: Informative Research Reports
Exhibit 79 – Wind Industry Resources: Ongoing Publications
Exhibit 80 – Wind Industry Resources: Books
Companies Mentioned
ABB
Acciona SA
Akebono Brake Industry Co.
Alstom SA
American Superconductor Corporation
A-Power Energy Generation Systems
Areva SA
Baoding Tianwei Baobian Electric Co.
Boralex Inc.
Broadwind Energy, Inc.
Carraro SpA
China Energine International Holdings Limited
China High Speed Transmission Equipment Group Co.
China Longyuan Power Group Corporation Limited
China Wind Systems, Inc.
China Windpower Group Limited
Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co.
Doosan Corp.
EDF Energies Nouvelles
EDP Renováveis
Elecon Engineering Co.
Energiekontor AG
Energy Composites Corporation
Fag Bearings India
Gamesa Corporación Tecnológica
General Electric Co.
Greentech Energy Systems A/S
Hansen Transmissions International nv
Harbin Jiuzhou Electric Co.
Hexagon AB
Hitachi
Huayi Electric Co Ltd
Hyosung Corp.
Hyundai Heavy Industries Co.
Iberdrola Renovables SA
Innergex Renewable Energy Inc.
Japan Wind Development Co.Ltd.
Jiangsu Jianghuai Engine Co.
Martifer SGPS
Mersen SA
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries
Morphic Technologies AB
NextEra Energy, Inc.
Ningbo Donly Transmission Equipment Co., LTD
Nordex SE
Otter Tail Corporation
Parker Hannifin Corporation
PNE Wind AG
Power-One Inc.
PYEONGSANCo.,Ltd.
RBC Bearings Inc.
REPower Systems AG
Samsung Heavy Industries
Schaffner Holding AG
Shanghai Electric Group Co.
Siemens AG
Suzlon Energy Limited
TECO Electric & Machinery Co.
Theolia
Thomas & Betts Corp.
Trinity Industries Inc.
Vacon plc
Vestas Wind Systems A/S
WESCO International Inc.
Windflow Technology
Xiangtan Electric Manufacturing Co.
Xinjiang GoldWind Science & Technology Co.
Zhejiang Tianma Bearing Co.
