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Albania Country Risk Report Q2 2016

  • February 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 45 pages

Core Views

Albania will remain attached to a relatively low growth trajectory overthe coming years, amid subdued exports and government fiscalconsolidation efforts.More efforts need to be made to implement structural reforms aimedat tackling corruption and improving labour market flexibility, if Albaniais to have any hope of converging with historically more developedregional peers.Albania’s large and entrenched trade balance shortfall will ensurethat the country’s current account remains firmly in deficit over thecoming years.Uncertainty in neighbouring Greece after the country’s debt crisiswill increase the scope for regional instability. It will also weigh ondemand for Albanian exports to Greece and remittances inflowsfrom Albanian workers based in Greece.

Table Of Contents

Albania Country Risk Report Q2 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Steady, But Below Potential Growth8
Albania will have stable economic growth in the coming years, as the country benefits from a recovery in remittances and low oil prices
However, growth will remain below potential due to continued overdependence on the agricultural sector and a major
shadow economy
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS10
External Trade And Investment Outlook 11
Trade Deficit To Remain High11
Albania's current account will remain firmly in deficit over the coming years due to the country's large trade deficit However, a relatively
large stock of FDI and international reserves imply limited risks of a full-blown balance of payments crisis emerging in the
years ahead
Outlook On External Position 12
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2014 12
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2014 12
Monetary Policy 13
No Further Rate Cuts In 201613
Despite subdued inflation , the National Bank of Albania (BoA) will not lower interest rates further in 2016 , due to a moderate recovery
in lending However, the BoA's dovish stance will only partially deal with structural inefficiencies in Albania's economy
Monetary Policy Framework 14
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast 17
The Albanian Economy To 2025 17
Regional Outlook Weighs On Trend Growth17
Although we project real GDP to expand by 36% annually on average between 2015 and 2025, we caution that Albania is expected to
remain one of the least developed states in South East Europe While small-scale export-oriented manufacturing will begin to take on
a more prominent role over the next few years, remittance inflows from expatriate migrant workers will remain a key source of foreign
capital, underscoring the relatively nascent stage of economic development in the Western Balkan state
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS17
Chapter 3: Political Outlook 19
SWOT Analysis 19
BMI Political Risk Index 19
Domestic Politics 20
Fewer Albanians To Seek Asylum In EU20
The number of Albanians seeking asylum in Western Europe will decrease in 2016, as the potential for approval has become
negligible However, Albania's poor economic situation will continue to put pressure on authorities to deal with structural inefficiencies
that prevent the country from lowering unemployment and increasing wages
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW 20
Long-Term Political Outlook 22
Stumbling Towards The EU22
We expect Albania to continue progressing towards EU membership over the next decade, though caution that forward momentum will
be sluggish
Chapter 4: Operational Risk 25
SWOT Analysis 25
Operational Risk Index 25
Operational Risk 26
TABLE: SOUTH EAST EUROPE - LABOUR MARKET RISK 26
TABLE: SOUTH EAST EUROPE - LOGISTICS RISK 30
TABLE: SOUTH EAST EUROPE - CRIME AND SECURITY RISK 34
TABLE: SOUTH EAST EUROPE - TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK 36
TABLE: MAIN IMPORT PRODUCTS, 2014 38
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook 41
Global Macro Outlook 41
Downside Risks Gather Momentum41
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS 41
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % 42
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, % 42
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % 43
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS 45

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