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Barbados, Guyana and Jamaica Country Risk Report Q2 2016

  • February 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 55 pages

Core Views

We believe that the English-speaking Caribbean will continueto see a modest economic recovery in the coming quarters asUS growth continues. A strengthening US consumer will boosttourism to the region, driving growth in tourism-dependent economies.Financial services will continue to struggle due to tightening financialregulation in developed economies, while lower precious metalsprices will weaken the macroeconomic outlook for the region’s miners.That said, growth will remain stronger in the region’s mining-driveneconomies than in its predominantly tourism-driven countries.Caribbean economies will continue to face economic headwinds inthe coming years in light of rising debt burdens, fixed exchange rateregimes, and modest growth prospects.

These factors, combinedwith our view that financial services sectors will see a significantrecovery in the next few years, mean that we do not rule outadditional credit events or major balance of payments correctionsin some of the small island economies.With indications that the Venezuelan government is moving towardan alteration in the parameters of its Petrocaribe programme, whichprovides subsidised oil imports to many Caribbean economies, thiscould send import bills much higher and potentially cause somecountries to default on their outstanding oil loans.

Major Forecast ChangesGovernment austerity measures will remain a significant drag on theeconomy in Barbados, as the government seeks to reduce its fiscaldeficit and substantial debt burden. We have downwardly revisedour growth forecast for 2016 from 2.3% to 1.0%. In 2017, we expecta modest acceleration to 1.6% growth as the government austeritymeasures ease slightly.Increased extractive sector activity will bolster Guyana’s real GDPgrowth in 2016, with a number of new gold mines set to open andrising investment into the country’s nascent hydrocarbon sector. Weforecast that after an estimated 2.5% expansion in real GDP growthin 2015 (revised down from our earlier 3.5% estimate on the backof weak H115 data), Guyana will grow by 3.6% in 2016.

Table Of Contents

Barbados, Guyana and Jamaica Country Risk Report Q2 2016
Composite Score5
BMI Risk Index - Barbados6
BMI Risk Index - Guyana7
BMI Risk Index - Jamaica8
BMI Index League Tables9
Regional SWOTS 10
Regional Executive Summary 13
Core Views 13
Major Forecast Changes 13
Key Risks 13
Chapter 11: Economic Outlook - Barbados 15
Fiscal Policy 15
Austerity Will Yield Only Modest Results15
Barbados will struggle to reduce its substantial debt load in the coming years as fiscal austerity measures yield only modest primary
surpluses
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY15
Economic Activity 17
Tourism The Major Driver Of Growth17
Barbados will see only modest economic growth in the coming years, driven by an expanding tourism sector Government austerity
measures will remain a significant drag on the economy, as the government seeks to reduce its fiscal deficit and substantial debt
burden
Chapter 12: 10-Year Forecast - Barbados 19
The Barbadian Economy To 2025 19
A Decade Of Weak Growth Ahead19
Barbados will struggle with slow growth, a wide current account deficit and weak government fiscal dynamics over our 10-year forecast
period
TABLE : LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS19
Chapter 13: Political Outlook - Barbados 23
Domestic Politics 23
Austerity Agenda Will Exacerbate Social Tension23
Barbados' ruling Democratic Labour Party will continue to benefit from a deeply divided opposition, ensuring that it is able to maintain
fiscal consolidation policies in the coming quarters
Long-Term Political Outlook 24
Social Stability And Drug Trafficking Greatest Challenges To Political Stability24
Well-established democratic institutions, strong policy continuity and limited external threats will maintain broad political stability in
Barbados over the coming decade
Chapter 21: Economic Outlook - Guyana 27
Economic Activity 27
Extractive Sector Investment Will Boost Growth27
Increased extractive sector activity will bolster Guyana's real GDP growth in 2016, with a number of new gold mines set to open and
rising investment into the country's nascent hydrocarbon sector
TABLE : ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 27
Balance Of Payments 28
Rising Gold Output Will Bolster External Account Position28
Guyana's current account deficit will narrow in the years ahead on the back of increased gold production, rising tourist arrivals and
robust remittance inflows
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT 29
Chapter 22: 10-Year Forecast - Guyana 31
The Guyanese Economy To 2025 31
A More Difficult Decade For Growth31
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS31
Chapter 23: Political Outlook - Guyana 35
Domestic Politics 35
US Assistance Will Be Insufficient To Address Corruption35
Greater US financial and technical assistance will aid in Guyana's efforts to fight elevated levels of nacrotrafficking and stamp out
corruption
Long-Term Political Outlook 36
Social Challenges And Security Threats Weigh On Outlook36
Chapter 31: Economic Outlook - Jamaica 39
Economic Activity 39
Reform Agenda On Track39
Jamaica's longstanding cooperation with the IMF to put its economic house in order will continue to improve the country's economic
outlook and business environment
Mining Sector Outlook 40
Government Policies To Hurt Growth40
Jamaica's bauxite production growth will slow due to tax policy uncertainty, elevated local opposition to bauxite mining and low
aluminium prices over our forecast period to 2019
Chapter 32: 10-Year Forecast - Jamaica 43
The Jamaican Economy To 2025 43
Government Reforms To Support Stronger Growth43
Under the guidance of the IMF, the Jamaican economy will begin to consistently post positive growth figures over the coming decade
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS43
TABLE: SIMPLIFICATION A MAJOR THEME OF TAX OVERHAUL44
Chapter 33: Polical Outlook - Jamaica 47
Domestic Politics 47
Policy Continuity Will Prevail Following General Election47
Jamaica's recently announced general elections, to be held at the end of this month, will be closely contested and centred on issues
crime, particularly the rising homicide rate
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW 47
Long-Term Political Outlook 48
Social Challenges To Foment Most Pressing Political Risks48
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook 51
Global Macro Outlook 51
Downside Risks Gather Momentum51
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS51
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % 52
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, % 52
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %53
TABLE: BARBADOS - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS55
TABLE: GUYANA - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS55
TABLE: JAMAICA - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS55

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