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Gabon and Rep. Congo Country Risk Report Q2 2016

  • February 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 39 pages

Core Views

Real GDP growth will remain robust in Congo-Brazzaville over thenext two years, thanks to strong production growth in the oil sectoroffsetting much of the impact from sustained low prices. Both thebudget and current account deficits will see significant improvementsover this period on the back of increasing oil production.The decision to bring forward the date of the Republic of Congo'spresidential election makes a victory for incumbent president, DenisSassou Nguesso, all but certain.

Core Views

The selection of Jean Ping as leader of Gabon's opposition in theforthcoming presidential elections will not result in a victory overthe country's long-standing incumbent government. Although animportant step towards improving the democratic credibility of thevote, significant challenges lie in the way of a win for Ping.Gabon's economic growth will remain stunted in 2016, followingfurther weakness in the country's oil sector. A stable currency,while beneficial for inflation and private consumption, will weighon local currency government revenues, with capital expendituresuffering as a result.

Table Of Contents

Gabon and Rep. Congo Country Risk Report Q2 2016
BMI Index 6
BMI Risk Index - Congo-Brazzaville6
BMI Risk Index - Gabon7
BMI Index League Tables8
Executive Summary - Congo-Brazzaville 11
Core Views11
Chapter 11: Economic Outlook - Congo-Brazzaville 13
SWOT Analysis 13
Economic Growth Outlook 14
Economy To Ride The Coat-Tails Of Oil Boom14
Real GDP growth will remain robust in Congo-Brazzaville over the next two years, thanks to strong production growth in the oil sector
offsetting much of the impact from sustained low prices
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 15
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS15
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS15
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS16
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS16
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS16
Chapter 12: 10-Year Forecast - Congo-Brazzaville 17
The Congo-Brazzaville Economy To 2025 17
Structural Weaknesses To Continue Amid Oil Boom17
Economic growth will remain robust in Congo-Brazzaville over our long-term forecast period thanks to rapid production growth in the oil
sector offsetting the impact of the low price of crude in the near term
Chapter 13: Political Outlook - Congo-Brazzaville 19
SWOT Analysis 19
Domestic Politics 20
Shorter Schedule Signals Another Hurdle For Opposition20
The decision to bring forward the date of the Republic of Congo's presidential election makes a victory for incumbent president, Denis
Sassou Nguesso, all but certain
Chapter 14: Operational Risk - Congo-Brazzaville 21
SWOT Analysis 21
Executive Summary - Gabon 23
Core Views23
Chapter 21: Economic Outlook - Gabon 25
SWOT Analysis 25
Economic Growth Outlook 26
No Respite For Oil-Hit Economy26
Gabon's economic growth will remain stunted in 2016, following further weakness in the country's oil sector A stable currency, while
beneficial for inflation and private consumption, will weigh on local currency government revenues, with capital expenditure suffering
as a result
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 27
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS27
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS27
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS27
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS28
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS28
Chapter 22: 10-Year Forecast - Gabon 29
The Gabonese Economy To 2025 29
Diversification Drive Will Yield Long-Term Results29
The Gabonese government's early recognition of the limitations of an oil-dependent economic model will yield some positive results
over our long-term forecast period, with economic growth to accelerate to 2020 and remain robust thereafter Efforts at economic
diversification will help the country avoid some of the structural pitfalls of the region's other oil producers
Chapter 23: Political Outlook - Gabon 31
SWOT Analysis 31
Domestic Politics 32
Painted Cracks Will Not Bring Electoral Victory32
The selection of Jean Ping as leader of Gabon's opposition in the forthcoming presidential elections will not result in a victory over the
country's long-standing incumbent government Although an important step towards improving the democratic credibility of the vote,
significant challenges lie in the way of a win for Ping
Chapter 24: Operational Risk - Gabon 33
SWOT Analysis 33
Chapter 3: BMI Global Macro Outlook 35
Global Macro Outlook 35
Downside Risks Gather Momentum35
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS35
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %36
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, % 36
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %37
TABLE: CONGO-BRAZZAVILLE - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS39
TABLE: GABON - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS39

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