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Haiti Country Risk Report 20 2016

  • February 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 35 pages

Core Views

Haiti will struggle with subdued growth, significant political unrestand sustained budget deficits over our 10-year forecast period. Whilethere is concerted international effort to assist Haiti’s reconstructionfollowing the 2010 earthquake, it will take decades for the countryto raise living standards to those of regional peers.Suppressed global oil prices will damage Haitian long-term growthprospects. Haiti relies on discounted oil from Venezuela as its primaryfuel cost. With low global oil prices set to hit the Venezuelaneconomy hard, the government in Caracas is likely to scale back its‘Petrocaribe’ discounted oil programme, to the detriment of long-termHaitian economic activity.

We expect economic growth in Haiti to tick up marginally in 2016on the back of robust exports to the US. We forecast the Haitianeconomy to grow by 1.9% in 2016 compared to 1.7% in 2015. Tradeagreements with the US together with stronger growth in the USeconomy will drive Haiti’s apparel exports over the year ahead.Persistent fiscal deficits and waning Petrocaribe flows, in the wakeof lower oil prices, will create a financing gap over 2016 and 2017.We forecast the fiscal balance to remain in deficit over the next twoyears and will average 5.2% of GDP.

The weak exchange rate will be the main driver of inflation over theyear ahead due to a high exchange rate pass-through to inflation.Furthermore, the drought experienced in 2015 will keep food priceselevated due to reduced domestic agricultural output.The indefinite postponement of Haiti’s second-round presidentialelection will increase political risk in the country, as it approachesthe end of President Michel Martelly’s term. Continued public unrestwill complicate negotiations for an interim government and increasethe risk a constitutional crisis.

Table Of Contents

Haiti Country Risk Report 20 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Exports To Outperform Amid Slow Growth8
Economic growth in Haiti will accelerate marginally in 2016 on the back of robust exports to the US Favourable trade agreements and
stronger growth in the US economy will drive demand for Haiti's apparel exports
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 8
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS9
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS10
Monetary Policy 10
Exchange Rate Depreciation Will Send Inflation Higher10
Inflation in Haiti will head higher in the next year, as depreciation stokes imported price growth and drought conditions push up food
prices The elevated inflation will undermine already weak consumer purchasing power and further exacerbate elevated popular
discontent
Monetary Policy Framework 11
Fiscal And Debt Outlook 12
End Of Petrocaribe Will Keep Financing Gap Substantial12
Haiti 's fiscal deficit will remain relatively wide through 2017 as financial inflows from Venezuela's Petrocaribe programme into the
country dissipate in the wake of low oil prices Haiti will finance its shortfalls through debt issuances, increasing its debt load as well as
raising the cost of financing new debt
Structural Fiscal Position 13
External Trade And Investment Outlook 14
Import Dependence To Drive Widening Deficit14
Haiti's current account deficit will widen in the next two years as demand for agricultural products and manufacturing inputs boosts
goods imports Remittance in flows will provide support to the current account, preventing a more significant widening of the shortfall
Outlook On External Position 15
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS IN16
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS IN16
TABLE: CAPITAL and FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE16
Long-Term Economic Outlook 17
Likely Withdrawal Of Petrocaribe Programme To Weigh On Outlook17
Haiti will struggle with subdued growth, significant political unrest and sustained budget deficits over our 10-year forecast period While
there is concerted international effort to assist Haiti's reconstruction following the 2010 earthquake, it will take decades for the country to
raise living standards to those of regional peers
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS 17
Chapter 2: Political Outlook 21
SWOT Analysis 21
BMI Political Risk Index 21
Domestic Politics 22
Election Postponement Signals Rising Political Risk22
The indefinite postponement of Haiti's second-round presidential election will increase political risk in the country, as it approaches the
expiration of President Michel Martelly's term Continued public unrest will complicate negotiations for an interim government and could
risk a crisis of legitimacy
Long-Term Political Outlook 23
Major Threats To Stability To Remain Prominent23
Haiti will remain one of the most politically unstable countries globally The country is still struggling to recover from the catastrophic
2010 earthquake, a situation made worse by rampant poverty, weak governance and endemic corruption
Chapter 3: Demographic Outlook 27
Demographic Outlook 2016 27
TABLE: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP28
TABLE: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP % 28
TABLE: POPULATION HEADLINE INDICATORS29
TABLE: KEY POPULATION RATIOS29
TABLE: URBAN/RURAL POPULATION and LIFE EXPECTANCY29
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook 31
Global Macro Outlook 31
Downside Risks Gather Momentum31
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS31
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %32
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, % 32
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %33
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS35

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