1. Market Research
  2. > Materials
  3. > Mineral Market Trends
  4. > Zimbabwe Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Zimbabwe Country Risk Report Q2 2016

  • February 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 35 pages

Core Views

Growing signs of internal divisions in the ruling ZANU-PF adds toexisting uncertainty over the future of politics in Zimbabwe once91-year-old President Robert Mugabe retires or dies. Against thisbackdrop, a worsening economic climate will put added pressureon government stability.The deflationary conditions that Zimbabwe has been experiencingfor the past two years will persist through 2016 due to subdued domesticdemand, a weak South African rand and weak internationalcommodity prices.

Political and policy uncertainty will continue to deter much-neededinvestment into the moribund Zimbabwean economy, while a weakharvest, depreciating South African rand and lower commodity priceswill also weigh on short-term economic activity.We estimate the Zimbabwean economy slipped into recession in2015 driven by a crippling drought, weak demand for key mineralexports (ie gold and diamonds) and limited investment opportunities.We expect only a minor improvement over the coming quarters,with economic conditions set to remain highly challenging owing todomestic and external headwinds.Major Forecast ChangesNo major forecasts changes.

Table Of Contents

Zimbabwe Country Risk Report Q2 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Major Forecast Changes5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Economy Stuck In The Doldrums8
Economic growth in Zimbabwe will barely creep above zero in 2016 as the effects of drought, low commodity prices and weak levels of
foreign investment keep the economy in the doldrums
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 8
TABLE: 10-YEAR ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECASTS9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS9
TABLE: GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION FORECASTS9
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS9
Monetary Policy 10
Deflationary Conditions To Remain In 201610
The deflationary conditions that Zimbabwe has been experiencing for the past two years will persist through 2016 due to subdued
domestic demand, a weak South African rand and weak international commodity prices
Monetary Policy Framework 11
Fiscal And Debt Outlook 12
Little Near-Term Growth Triggers12
Zimbabwe's 2016 budget will offer little economic stimulus to reignite growth given near-term spending constraints, limited domestic
revenue generating capacity and a lack of access to international capital markets If a new round of promised Chinese investment
comes to fruition, the benefits will likely be felt in the longer term
Structural Fiscal Position 13
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE and EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES14
Currency Forecast 15
ZAR: 2016 Budget To Revive Early-Year Bullish Run15
In the short term, we expect the rand's early-year rally to be revived by a prudent 2016/17 Budget presentation, in the light of capital
expenditure cuts and a rise in taxes However, the rally will fizzle out as bearish fundamentals prevail
TABLE: BMI SOUTH AFRICA CURRENCY FORECAST15
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast 17
The Zimbabwean Economy To 2025 17
Policy Risks To Constrain Long-Term GDP Growth17
The performance of the Zimbabwean economy will remain inextricably linked to the policy and political climate over the coming years
Although the trajectory of this is difficult to predict, at this juncture we believe the economy will expand, but only at a very subdued rate
as much-needed foreign investment will remain at bay owing to nationalistic policies of the ZANU-PF dominated government
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS 17
Chapter 3: Political Outlook 19
SWOT Analysis 19
BMI Political Risk Index 19
Domestic Politics 20
Factionalism To Continue Dominating Political Discourse20
Zimbabwe's succession battle will reach fever pitch in the coming quarters ahead of the 2018 general elections, leading to elevated
levels of political instability
Long-Term Political Outlook 20
Succession Question Prompts Heightened Instability20
Political instability in Zimbabwe will increase in the next two years, ahead of the 2018 general election The ruling ZANU-PF party looks
set to retain dominance although succession questions will intensify as ailing president Robert Mugabe's rule approaches its end
Chapter 4: Operational Risk 23
SWOT Analysis 23
Operational Risk Index 23
Operational Risk 24
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK24
Trade Procedures And Governance 25
TABLE: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA - TRADE PROCEDURES AND GOVERNANCE 26
Vulnerability To Crime 27
TABLE: IMPORT AND EXPORT DOCUMENTS 27
TABLE: TRADE PROCEDURES BREAKDOWN 27
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook 31
Global Macro Outlook 31
Downside Risks Gather Momentum31
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS31
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %32
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, % 32
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %33
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS35

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Veronica

+1 718 514 2762

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Mica Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share, Growth, Trends, and Forecast 2016 - 2024

Mica Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share, Growth, Trends, and Forecast 2016 - 2024

  • $ 5795
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by Transparency Market Research

Mica is primarily used as insulator, pigment extender, and filler in electronics, paints & coatings, construction, cosmetics, and other (rubber, plastics, etc.) industries. It is light, relatively soft, ...

Activated Alumina Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share, Growth, Trends, and Forecast 2016 - 2024

Activated Alumina Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share, Growth, Trends, and Forecast 2016 - 2024

  • $ 5795
  • Industry report
  • August 2016
  • by Transparency Market Research

Activated alumina is primarily used as desiccant, adsorbent, catalyst, and catalyst carrier in water treatment, oil & gas, and pharmaceuticals, and the Claus process. It is a highly porous material with ...

Talc Market by Type of Deposit, Application and Region - Global Forecast to 2021

Talc Market by Type of Deposit, Application and Region - Global Forecast to 2021

  • $ 5650
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by MarketsandMarkets

“The global talc market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.9% from 2016 to 2021” The global talc market is projected to reach USD 3.29 billion by 2021, at a CAGR of 4.9% between 2016 and 2021. Increase ...


Download Unlimited Documents from Trusted Public Sources

Fertilizer Supply in Brazil

  • November 2016
    4 pages
  • Fertilizer  

  • Brazil  

    South America  

View report >

Global Potash Supply

  • November 2016
    41 pages
  • Inorganic Ferti...  

    Fertilizer  

    Potash  

  • World  

    United States  

    China  

View report >

Global Asbestos Industry

  • November 2016
    44 pages
  • Asbestos  

  • United States  

View report >

ref:plp2016

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.