Table of Contents
Annual Global Power Generation Forecasts 2016 : The Fate of Fossil Fuels in the Emerging Age of Renewables
Frost & Sullivan's Annual Global Power Generation Forecasts provide a detailed assessment of the future development of the power generation fuel mix. These reflect Frost & Sullivan's current thinking on the expected development of electricity generation and capacity additions during the 2010–2030 period. A global overview looking at key global developments in coal, gas, nuclear, and renewable generating sources is followed by a detailed assessment of fuel mix developments in ten different world regions. The forecasts offer valuable insights not just for participants in the energy sector but also for participants from sectors such as engineering, chemicals, and information technology.
Executive Summary—CEO’s Perspective
Global power generation capacity is forecast to grow % from GW in 2015 to GW in 2030.
Electricity generation will rise by % from TWh to TWh during the same period.
Renewable energy will receive a major boost from the global climate talks in Paris in December 2015 (COP 21).
Coal will decelerate but remain the dominant fuel source, accounting for % of installed capacity in 2030.
Gas fired power will grow strongly and nearly reach the capacity of coal by 2030.
The Last Word—Three Big Predictions
Progress in the penetration of carbon-free power generation will accelerate substantially over the next few years, as the global share reaches % by 2020. Key contributors to this are: large-scale expansion of renewables in Asia (driven by China and India in particular), the expected recovery of nuclear generation in Japan and a slower expansion of coal-fired generation in China, with coal plant closures in Europe also gaining momentum.
The decade after 2020 will be marked by a continued expansion of renewable energy and—in the Eastern Hemisphere at least—nuclear power. Carbon-free electricity’s share is slated to reach % in 2030. The growth impetus in Asia will gradually shift from China to India, and carbon-free power will also start to penetrate the Middle East much more rapidly.
Europe will maintain its global leadership in deployment of renewables, as less than one-third of the EU’s power will come from fossil fuels in 2030.
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