2016 Outlook of the Global Medium-Heavy Duty Truck Industry : Global Sales to Increase by 60,000 Units Amidst the Industry Shifting Focus Towards Freight Efficiency
Frost and Sullivan research indicates that the global MD-HD Truck market is expected grow by 2.4% in 2016 backed by a strong performance in India and Europe. Markets such as China, Latam, and Russia are expected to experience downward pressure because slowing economic activity is likely to impact freight growth. Capacity utilisation challenges will be key, as OEMs re-align product and marketing strategies to tap into the rapidly expanding mid-market value trucks segment. As profits shrink during a period of challenging market conditions, centralised platform development will be crucial for industry participants. Other developments include autonomous trucks, safety, telematics, alternate powertrain, mobile freight brokerage, and others.
2015 Key Highlights
Global Medium Duty (MD)-Heavy Duty (HD) truck sales declined by % over 2014 on account of weak demand in China.
China Changed the Game, LatAm’s Rise Overshadowed by Brazil’s Weakness China and LatAm dealt a unit blow to overall global MD-HD truck sales. China’s declining sales figures were worrisome, as several local and foreign Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) and tier I suppliers were directly exposed to the Chinese truck market, and this was first time in over a decade that the market contracted. 2 Low Oil Prices Both a Boon and Bane Low and volatile oil prices had both a positive impact (driving sales in emerging markets such as India, enabling fleets in diverting opex towards capex, and improving margins in markets such as North America and Europe) and a negative impact (recessionary pressures in several economies such as Russia, Canada, and South America). This factor also provided resistance to proliferation of alternative powertrain technologies.
3 Daimler Extended Dominance; Asian OEMs on the Rise Daimler continues to dominate the global market through effective product and brand strategies across the world. Autonomous trucks, value trucks, multi-branding, and Fleet Management Services (FMS) packaging enabled Daimler to consolidate its global leadership. Asian manufacturers started to gain traction, as product focus slowly moved from low cost to value trucks in the global market.
4 Initiative Towards Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Reduction North American and European markets focused on GHG and fuel efficiency regulations, while India and China will move towards Euro VI regulations by 2020–2022. OEMs’ and engine suppliers’ activities for reaching fuel efficiency targets for Euro 7 and EPA 2018 are centered around technologies such as powertrain optimisation, driveline optimisation, light weighting, down speeding, downsizing, and aerodynamics.
5 Mobile and Online Freight Brokering Revolution Gained Traction In 2015, mobile-based freight brokering (aka Uber for Trucks) in markets such as North America and Brazil grew rapidly, while online freight aggregation gained traction in markets such as India and Europe. This revolution is poised to drive significant enhancements in freight efficiency and asset optimisation.
Table Of Contents
2016 Outlook of the Global Medium-Heavy Duty Truck IndustryÂ 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Executive Summary 1 2015 Key Highlights 2 2015-2016 CV Industry Senior Management Top-of-Mind Issues 3 2016 Top 6 Predictions
2 DEFINITIONS AND SEGMENTATION
Definitions and Segmentation 1 Vehicle SegmentsâMD-HD Trucks: Global 2 Research Background
3 FREIGHT AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Freight and Economic Outlook 1 Top CV Market Performanceâ2015 Versus 2014 2 2015-2016 Global Freight and Logistics Outlook 3 Transformation in the Freight Industry Ecosystemâ2016 4 2016 Global GDP and Commercial Truck Market Growth Outlook
4 GLOBAL MD-HD TRUCK MARKET OUTLOOKâ2016
Global MD-HD Truck Market Outlookâ2016 1 Global Medium and Heavy Truck Market Forecast 2016 2 Global Medium and Heavy Commercial Truck Market Forecast 2016 3 Key 2016 Regional Outlook 4 Attractive MD-HD Truck Segments by Region 5 MD-HD Truck OEM Sales Performance 2015 6 Key 2016 Market IntroductionsâTruck Platforms, Powertrain Launches
5 GLOBAL POWERTRAIN OUTLOOKâ2016
Global Powertrain Outlookâ2016 1 Global Powertrain Outlookâ2016 2 Global MD-HD Truck Powertrain Technology Forecast 3 Global OEMs' Engine Displacement Comparative Analysis 4 Engine Platform Design Harmonisation 2016-2022 5 Comparative Benchmarking of OEMs' Global Truck and Engine Platforms and Engines 6 Comparative Benchmarking of OEMs' Global Truck and Engine Platforms and Engines (continued) 7 Alternate Fuel Truck MarketâRegional Market Share Analysis 8 Global Transmissions Market Outlook 9 MD-HD Turbocharger Global Outlook
6 GLOBAL MD-HD TRUCK PRODUCT POSITIONING OUTLOOKâ2016
Global MD-HD Truck Product Positioning Outlookâ2016 1 Product Segment Overview 2 Product Segments Outlookâ2016 3 Global OEMs' Brand Positioning Strategies 2016 4 Product Planning Focal Points of OEMs 5 Value Truck Models in Selected Marketsâ2016 6 Low-cost Truck MarketâPrice Range of MD-HD Trucks by Region 7 Expected Low-cost Truck Platforms
7 GLOBAL SOFT TECHNOLOGIES OUTLOOKâ2016
Global Soft Technologies Outlookâ2016 1 2016 Telematics Installed BaseâNext Generation Markets 2 Global Connected LCV and M/HCV Contributionâ2015, 2016, and 2022 3 Global HD Truck Safety Systems Adoption Hot Spots 4 Automated DrivingâSafety Technologies Roadmap
8 SPECIAL FOCUS AâEMERGING MARKETS-2016: INDIA, SOUTH AMERICA, AND IRAN
Special Focus AâEmerging Markets-2016: India, South America, and Iran 1 India MD-HD Truck Market Snapshot 2 South America MD-HD Truck Market Snapshot 3 Iran MD-HD Truck Market Snapshot
9 SPECIAL FOCUS BâEMERGING MARKET OEMS' GLOBAL GROWTH STRATEGIES IN 2016
Special Focus BâEmerging Market OEMs' Global Growth Strategies in 2016 1 Chinese OEMâCNHTC Global Sales Outlook 2 CNHTCâProduct Portfolio 3 Outlook of Indian CV OEMs' Export Business 4 Development of Strong Global Supplier Partnerships 5 Sales Outlook for Hyundai's Global CV Business 6 HMG Commercial Vehicle Product Portfolio
10 SPECIAL FOCUS CâAUTONOMOUS TRUCK TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENTS IN 2016
Special Focus CâAutonomous Truck Technology Developments in 2016 1 Autonomous Commercial Vehicle Incremental Cost Analysis 2 Automated Driving Benchmark 3 Business Models for Truck Platooning 4 V2X Technology Evolution for Piloting Autonomous Trucks 5 Validation and Testing of Automated Vehicles in 2016 6 Autonomous Driving Technologies Benchmark of Global HD OEMs
11 SPECIAL FOCUS DâRISE OF NORTH AMERICAN MOBILE-BASED FREIGHT BROKERING MARKET IN 2016
Special Focus DâRise of North American Mobile-based Freight Brokering Market in 2016 1 Future of Connectivity in Urban Logistics 2 Currently Evaluated Pricing Modelâ2016 3 Future of Connectivity in Urban Logistics 2016-2025 4 What is Mobile Based Freight Brokering? 5 North American Mobile-based Freight Brokering Market Revenue Forecast 6 Freight Aggregator/Business Model Analysis 7 Business Model Analysis 2016-2025
12 CONCLUSIONS AND OUTLOOK
Conclusions and Outlook 1 Key Conclusions and 2016 Outlook 2 Legal Disclaimer
Appendix 1 Table of Acronyms Used 2 2016 Topics Focal Points of Global Commercial Vehicle Program 3 Methodology