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Aluminium Metals Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 64 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI view: We will maintain our aluminium price forecast for 2016 at USD1,575/tonne. Although priceswill bottom in H116, production will outstrip consumption until 2018 and anchor prices. In particular,cheap Chinese exports will keep the market well supplied.

Latest Developments And Structural TrendsPrice Forecast

- We expect prices to average USD1,575/tonne in 2016 and USD1,600/tonne in 2017, climbing to onlyUSD1,750/tonne by the end of our forecast period in 2020. As of February, consensus has moved lower,more or less aligned with ours over the next few years.Production

- Global aluminium production growth will slow due to persistently low prices. We forecast global outputto grow by 3.9% in 2016 compared to 8.5% in 2015.

- China will remain the driving force behind global aluminium production, with output growth continuingto outstrip growth in the rest of the world. China's output growth will slow from 16.0% to 8.0% in 2016due to gradual scaling back of capacity.

- Production in Europe and the US will be global weak spots as producers continue to make capacity cutsin response to low prices. Weak smelter margins have been exacerbated by the collapse in LMEpremiums over 2015 and we expect premiums to remain depressed.

- Due to weak margins in primary aluminium smelting, more firms could follow Alcoa's lead and pivottowards higher-value products such as for the autos and aerospace industries.

Table Of Contents

Aluminium Metals Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
BMI View 7
Table: Global - Aluminium Supply, Demand and Price Forecasts 7
Price Forecast 9
Global - Aluminium: Slow Recovery To Balanced Market 9
Table: BMI Aluminium Forecasts 9
Table: Global - Aluminium Supply, Demand and Price Forecasts 14
Global Trends In Supply, Demand And Trade 15
Global - Aluminium: China-Driven Oversupply To Persist 15
Table: Global - Aluminium Supply, Demand and Price Forecasts 16
Supply: China Oversupply To Force More Cuts Abroad 17
Table: Primary Aluminium Production Forecasts 20
Demand: China Demand Growth Will Slow Significantly 21
Trade: China Exports To Rise Further 22
Table: Primary Aluminium Consumption Forecasts 24
Mine Supply: Bauxite 25
Bauxite: New Projects To Propel Growth 25
Table: Select Countries - Bauxite Production Forecasts 28
Competitive Landscape 30
Table: Largest Listed Aluminium Producers by Market Capitalisation, 2014 34
Company Profile 36
Global Company Strategy - Alcoa - Q2 2016 36
Company Overview 38
Company Strategy 38
Latest Results 40
Table: Alcoa - Key Financial Data 41
Company Details 42
Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) - Q2 2016 43
Company Overview 44
Latest Financial Results 46
Table: Chalco - Key Financial Data 47
Global Company Strategy - RUSAL - Q2 2016 47
Latest Results 50
Table: UC RUSAL - Key Financial Data 52
National Aluminium Company (NALCO) 53
Table: NALCO - Top Suppliers 56
Table: NALCO - Key Financial Data 57
Emirates Global Aluminium 58
Data Appendix 62
Appendix 62
Table: Global - Aluminium Supply, Demand and Price Forecasts 62
Table: Primary Aluminium Production Forecasts 63
Table: Primary Aluminium Consumption Forecasts 64

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Related Market Segments :

Aluminium
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ref:plp2016

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