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Congo-Brazzaville, Congo, Dem. Rep. and Burundi Telecommunications Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 102 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

The Democratic Republic of the Congo's mobile market continues to show excellent growth prospects andwe expect this trend to be ongoing throughout our forecast period. Strong mobile subscriber uptake is partlydue to an increase in competition, which has led to aggressive network development and service pricingstrategies. BMI believes that the recent contraction in the size of the Congolese mobile customer base waslargely due to inactive subscription discounting as the losses primarily came from the prepaid segment.However, we believe that limited subscriber uptake in rural areas means that subscriptions growth is likelyto remain strong for the duration of our forecast period to 2020. Burundi's mobile market is viewed as oneof the most competitive in the region, with four active mobile operators serving a population of around10mn. Despite this, low income levels, low urbanisation rates and limited funds for network expansion intounderserved areas are among the major factors for the slow growth of the country's mobile sector.

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

- We estimate that the Republic of the Congo's mobile market had 4.489mn customers by the end of 2015.This was equivalent to a penetration rate of 97.16%, down from 102% at the end of 2014. We nowpredict that the number of mobile subscriptions will reach 4.6mn at the end of 2020, a penetration rate of87.5%. We expect the number of 3G subscriptions in Congo-Brazzaville to reach 1.84mn in 2020,equivalent to 39.9% of the total mobile subscriber base.

- The DRC's mobile penetration rate moved past the 61% mark at the end of 2015, based on a total of47.2mn mobile subscribers. We now expect it to reach 80.7% in 2020, based on a subscriber base of72.8mn mobile customers. We estimate there were around 3.47mn 3G subscriptions by the end of 2015.Our forecast anticipates this number to rise to 18.2mn by 2020, equivalent to 25% of the mobilesubscriber base.

- We now estimate that Burundi's mobile market grew by just over 80% y-o-y in 2015 to reach5.575mn subscriptions. As a result of the stronger growth trend witnessed in 9M15 we have once againrevised our mobile subscriber forecast for Burundi, now predicting that subscriptions will reach10.58mn in 2020.

Table Of Contents

Congo-Brazzaville, Congo, Dem. Rep. and Burundi Telecommunications Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Latest Updates and Industry Developments 7
SWOT 9
Congo-Brazzaville Telecoms SWOT 9
DRC Telecoms SWOT 11
Burundi Telecoms SWOT 13
Industry Forecast 15
Congo-Brazzaville Industry Forecast 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2020) 19
DRC Industry Forecast 20
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (DRC 2013-2020) 20
Latest Updates 20
Structural Trends 21
Burundi Industry Forecast 24
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Burundi 2013-2020) 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 28
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index 28
Table: Regional RRI Comparison, Q216 29
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index, Q2 2016 30
Congo-Brazzaville Industry Risk Reward Index 32
DRC Industry Risk Reward Index 33
Burundi Industry Risk Reward Index 34
Market Overview 36
Congo-Brazzaville Market Overview 36
Market Drivers And Trends 36
Mobile 37
Wireline Voice And Broadband 41
DRC Market Overview 42
Market Drivers And Trends 42
Mobile 43
Wireline Voice And Broadband 47
Burundi Market Overview 48
Market Drivers And Trends 48
Mobile 48
Wireline Voice And Broadband 52
Pay-TV/Convergence 54
Regulatory Development 55
Table: Regulatory Environment 55
Competitive Landscape 58
Table: Key Players 58
Table: Congo-Brazzaville Mobile Market Overview 2013-2015 59
Table: Airtel Congo 59
Table: MTN Congo 60
Table: Azur Congo 61
Table: DRC Mobile Market Overview 2013-2015 61
Table: Vodacom DRC 62
Table: Airtel Congo 63
Table: Orange DRC 63
Table: Tigo DRC 64
Table: Burundi Mobile Market Overview 2013-2015 65
Company Profile 66
MTN 66
Table: MTN Indicators, 2013-2015 69
Airtel Africa 71
Orange 76
Table: Orange's Proportional Subscriptions 79
Demographic Forecast 81
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Congo-Brazzaville 1990-2025) 82
Table: Key Population Ratios (Congo-Brazzaville 1990-2025) 82
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Congo-Brazzaville 1990-2025) 83
Table: Population By Age Group (Congo-Brazzaville 1990-2025) 83
Table: Population By Age Group % (Congo-Brazzaville 1990-2025) 84
Demographic Forecast 86
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Congo (DRC) 1990-2025) 88
Table: Key Population Ratios (Congo (DRC) 1990-2025) 88
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Congo (DRC) 1990-2025) 89
Table: Population By Age Group (Congo (DRC) 1990-2025) 89
Table: Population By Age Group % (Congo (DRC) 1990-2025) 90
Demographic Forecast 91
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Burundi 1990-2025) 92
Table: Key Population Ratios (Burundi 1990-2025) 92
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Burundi 1990-2025) 93
Table: Population By Age Group (Burundi 1990-2025) 93
Table: Population By Age Group % (Burundi 1990-2025) 94
Glossary 96
Table: Glossary Of Terms 96
Methodology 98
Industry Forecast Methodology 98
Sources 100
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 100
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators 101
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 102

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