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Rwanda Telecommunications Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 59 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Rwanda has a competitive mobile telephony market with three network operators, MTN, Tigoand Airtel helping to drive subscriber growth. In addition, growing demand for data services and theavailability of new low-cost internet-enabled devices should positively impact on 3G and 4G subscriberuptake, as well as the growth of data revenues. We expect Rwanda's internet sector to benefit from operatorinvestments in wireless data networks and new investment in FTTH infrastructure. Over our forecast periodwe expect Rwanda's internet sector to benefit from government investment in terrestrial fibre-optic and LTEnetworks.

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

- In the first nine months of 2015 the Rwandan mobile market saw a net increase of 763,000 subscribers.This is based on data reported by MTN and Tigo, as well as the regulator RURA. We estimate that thetotal number of mobile subscriptions reached 8.79mn by the end of 2015, equivalent to a penetrationrate of 75.7%. We expect the Rwandan mobile market to maintain positive growth throughout ourforecast period, through to 2020, due to strong competition between MTN, Tigo and Airtel, as well asan expanding economy.

- By the end of 2020 we expect the number of mobile subscriptions to rise to 11.26mn. Growth acrossthe market as a whole will be driven by competition between the three network operators and by theincreased availability of new data services and internet-connected devices. Although mobile averagerevenues per user (ARPUs) are currently falling, we expect the decline to level off and trend towardspositive growth on the back of the growing uptake of mobile data services.

- We maintain a positive growth outlook for Rwanda's broadband sector, based on governmentinvestment in terrestrial fibre-optic infrastructure and operator investment in LTE networks. Thegovernment's sponsorship of a national network will reduce deployment costs for individual operators,thus enabling them to offer services at more affordable prices. By 2020 we predict there will be 775,000broadband accesses, up from 366,000 at the end of 2015.

Table Of Contents

Rwanda Telecommunications Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Latest Updates and Industry Developments 7
SWOT 9
Telecoms 9
Industry Forecast 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Rwanda 2013-2020) 15
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 16
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index 16
Table: Regional RRI Comparison, Q216 17
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index, Q2 2016 18
Rwanda Risk/Reward Index 20
Market Overview 22
Market Drivers And Trends 22
Mobile 23
Wireline Voice and Broadband 30
Pay-TV/Convergence 33
Regulatory Development 34
Competitive Landscape 35
Table: Key Players 35
Table: Tigo Rwanda 35
Table: Airtel Rwanda 36
Table: MTN Rwanda 36
Company Profile 38
MTN 38
Table: MTN Indicators, 2013-2014 41
Airtel Africa 43
Demographic Forecast 48
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Rwanda 1990-2025) 49
Table: Key Population Ratios (Rwanda 1990-2025) 49
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Rwanda 1990-2025) 50
Table: Population By Age Group (Rwanda 1990-2025) 50
Table: Population By Age Group % (Rwanda 1990-2025) 51
Glossary 53
Table: Glossary Of Terms 53
Methodology 55
Industry Forecast Methodology 55
Sources 57
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 57
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators 58
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 59

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