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  5. > Zambia Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

Zambia Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 53 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We project stable but limited growth for the Zambian agricultural sector over the next fiveyears, as the country will remain a prime supplier of corn and sugar to the South West Africa region.Continued kwacha weakness will translate into a higher cost of imported inputs, thereby reducing fertiliseruse across Zambian crops. On the consumption side, volatile corn output and limited entry from otherproducers on the sugar market will keep prices elevated for Zambian consumers.

Key BMI Forecasts

- Zambian corn production growth from 2015/16 to 2019/20: 1.6% to 2.8mn tonnes. We have reviseddown our corn production forecast due to our Country Risk team's expectation for the kwacha todepreciate heavily over the next five years. This will translate into a higher cost of imported inputs,thereby reducing fertiliser use across the Zambian crop.

- Zambian sugar production growth from 2015/16 to 2019/20: 3.1% to 524,200 tonnes. The expecteddepreciation of the kwacha will also affect Zambia's sugar sector, as producers will face increased inputcosts, which will weigh on growth.

- 2016 real GDP growth: 3.4% (up from 3.1% last year)

- 2016 consumer price inflation: 18.5% (up from 13.9% last year)

- BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD1.3bn in 2015/16, a 2.8% increase on 2014/15.

Table Of Contents

Zambia Agribusiness Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Industry Forecast 11
Grains Outlook 11
Table: Zambia - Grains Production and Consumption Outlook 11
Table: Risk To Outlook 12
Table: Zambia - Grains Production and Consumption (2012-2020) 13
Sugar Outlook 14
Table: Zambia - Sugar Production and Consumption Outlook 14
Table: Risks To Outlook 14
Table: Zambia Sugar Production and Consumption (2012-2020) 16
Commodity Price Analysis 17
Global Commodities Strategy 17
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 17
Upstream Analysis 19
Africa GM Outlook 19
Table: Farm Size By Region 23
Africa Machinery Outlook 25
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions 25
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012) 30
Africa Fertiliser Outlook 31
Downstream Analysis 38
Food 38
Latest Updates 38
Structural Trends 39
Table: Food Sales (Zambia 2013-2020) 39
Regional Overview 41
Middle East and Africa Regional Overview 41
Demographic Forecast 47
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Zambia 1990-2025) 48
Table: Key Population Ratios (Zambia 1990-2025) 48
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Zambia 1990-2025) 49
Table: Population By Age Group (Zambia 1990-2025) 49
Table: Population By Age Group % (Zambia 1990-2025) 50
Methodology 52
Industry Forecast Methodology 52
Sector-Specific Methodology 53

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