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  4. > Namibia Power Report Q2 2016

Namibia Power Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 52 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Namibia will not be producing enough electricity to cover demand during our forecast periodas political and pricing issues cause delays to new thermal capacity coming online. The delays will result inthe renewable power sector experiencing an increase in activity, as is evidenced by new solar and windpower investments.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- Namibia has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with French firm, InnoSun, for a plannedconstruction of a wind farm near Lüderitz in the Tsau//Khaeb national park. The wind farm will havecapacity of at least 150MW up to 500MW.

- The 35MW tender for a solar power plant in Mariental has been scrapped by the Namibian High Courtafter it found irregularities in the tender process.

- We have revised our hydropower generation forecasts to 2.2TWh, down from 2.4TWh, to account forreduced rainfall as well as no new capacity forecast to come online within our forecast period

- Due to a lack of other forms of generation coming online, our forecasts have been adjusted, withhydropower expected to remain Namibia's primary source of power, with over 80% share of totalgeneration throughout our forecast period

- Construction of the Xaris Energy Gas-fired power plant in Erongo will reportedly start as soon as thepower purchase agreement (PPA) is finalised with NamPower

- We have revised our total thermal generation forecasts since last quarter, with a reduction from 1TWh tojust under 0.4TWh, as we currently only factor in some oil-fired generation and the 120MW Van Eckcoal power plant.

- The Namibian Mines and Energy minister has stated that Namibia will not experience any load sheddingin 2016, stating that the country has secured 300MW off-peak supply from Eskom in South Africa, withother small-scale solar and wind power projects reportedly planned to cover the rest of the deficit ingeneration.

Table Of Contents

Namibia Power Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Namibia 2015 - 2021) 7
Latest Updates And Structural Trends 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Namibia Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Namibia 2015-2020) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Namibia 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Namibia Power Forecast Scenario 12
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 13
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 15
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Namibia 2014 - 2019) 16
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Namibia 2020 - 2025) 17
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Namibia 2014 - 2019) 18
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Namibia 2020 - 2025) 19
Electricity Consumption 19
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Namibia 2014 - 2019) 20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Namibia 2020 - 2025) 20
Transmission and Distribution 20
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Namibia 2014-2019) 21
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Namibia 2020-2025) 21
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Namibia 2014-2019) 22
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Namibia 2020-2025) 22
Industry Risk Reward Index 23
SSA Power Risk/Reward Index 23
Table: SSA Power RRI (Scores Out Of 100) 29
Namibia Power Risk/Reward Index 30
Market Overview 32
Key Policies And Market Structure 32
Regulation And Competition 32
Pricing 32
SSA Key Policies/Market Structure 33
Competitive Landscape 36
Competitive Landscape 37
Regional Overview 40
Glossary 46
Table: Glossary Of Terms 46
Methodology 47
Methodology And Sources 47
Industry Forecast Methodology 47
Sources 50
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 50
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 51
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 52

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