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Nigeria Retail Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 59 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Nigeria's economy has recorded respectable year-on-year economic growth over the pastdecade and we currently forecast real GDP growth in 2016 to reach 3.6%. With modest growth likely inhousehold incomes, consumer spending patterns are unlikely to change and most households will be able topurchase only consumer staples. This will keep essentials spending at the exceptionally high level of 75.3%,with any increases in non-essentials spending being driven primarily by the 5.3% of Nigerian householdsinhabiting the USD50,000+ income bracket.

Key Views & Developments:

-We expect the dollar value of total household spending to reach USD223bn in 2016, up on last year'sUSD209bn but still hit hard by the weak naira.

-Food & non-alcoholic drinks spending, the largest retail sub-sector, will reach USD130.7bn in 2016, whilehousing & utilities spending will amount to USD25.9bn.

-Almost 5.1mn households will be in the USD10,000-plus income bracket by the end of 2016, representing9.7% of the total.

-South Africa based clothing retailer Truworths International Ltd., closed its remaining Nigerian stores inJanuary 2016, citing rising operating costs and government regulatory red tape as the main reasons for itswithdrawal. However, the company is reported stating that it did not see its exit from Nigeria necessarily asa permanent decision.

-Nigeria's largest lender, Guaranty Trust Bank, announced in February 2016 that it would be lookingtowards investing in the fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector and small to medium-sized (SME)consumer goods companies, in its search for growth in the current low oil price economy.

Table Of Contents

Nigeria Retail Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Headline Retail Forecast 10
Table: Total Household Spending (Nigeria 2013-2020) 11
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Nigeria 2013-2020) 12
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Nigeria 2013-2020) 14
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Nigeria 2013-2020) 15
Retail Sector Forecast 18
Food, Drink and Tobacco 20
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (Nigeria 2013-2020) 20
Clothing and Footwear 21
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (Nigeria 2013-2020) 21
Household Goods 22
Table: Household Goods Spending (Nigeria 2013-2020) 22
Table: Consumer Electronics Spending (Nigeria 2013-2020) 23
Table: Toys, Sports, Gardens and Pets Spending (Nigeria 2013-2020) 23
Personal Care 24
Table: Personal Care Spending (Nigeria 2013-2020) 24
Household Numbers and Income Forecast 25
Table: Household Income Data (Nigeria 2013-2020) 26
Demographic Forecast 29
Table: Total Population (Nigeria 2013-2020) 31
Table: Population: Babies (Nigeria 2013-2020) 31
Table: Population: Young Children (Nigeria 2013-2020) 32
Table: Population: Children (Nigeria 2013-2020) 32
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Nigeria 2013-2020) 32
Table: Population: Young People (Nigeria 2013-2020) 33
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Nigeria 2013-2020) 33
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Nigeria 2013-2020) 34
Table: Population: Young Adults (Nigeria 2013-2020) 34
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Nigeria 2013-2020) 34
Table: Population: Urban (Nigeria 2013-2020) 35
Industry Risk/Reward Index 36
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index 36
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q216 36
Industry Risk Reward Index 37
Rewards 37
Risks 38
Market Overview 39
Competitive Landscape 43
Clothing And Footwear 43
Table: Selected Clothing and Footwear Retailers 43
Household Goods 43
Table: Selected Household Goods/Homeware/Home Improvement Retailers 43
Electronics 44
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers 44
Department Stores 44
Table: Selected Department Stores 44
E-commerce 45
Table: Selected E-commerce/Online Marketplaces 45
Drug Stores/ Pharmacies 45
Table: Drug Store/Pharmacies 45
Glossary 46
Methodology 53
Industry Forecast Methodology 53
Sources 56
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 56
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 57
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 59

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