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  5. > The Smartphones in Sub-Saharan Africa: trends and forecasts 2015–2020

Smartphone sales in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will grow at a CAGR of 10.8% between 2015 and 2020, from 63 million units to 105 million units. This report provides forecasts and analysis of the trends that affect smartphone sales in the region.

Table Of Contents

The Smartphones in Sub-Saharan Africa: trends and forecasts 2015-2020

Table of contents


5.Executive summary


6.Executive summary: Low-income users will drive smartphone unit sales in Sub-Saharan Africa


7.Worldwide trends


8.Worldwide: Smartphone markets are saturating - operators and vendors must reassess their priorities


9.Worldwide: Growth in unit sales will depend on emerging markets and will come mostly from emerging Asia-Pacific


10.Worldwide: Operators are key sources of smartphones in most regions, but they lost some ground to other channels in 2015


11.Worldwide: Vendor financing is the end-point of gradual shifts in operator device strategies rather than an abrupt change


12.Worldwide: Vendor financing plans are most likely to succeed in countries where users are ready for SIM-only contracts


13.Worldwide: Operator bundles are in demand and play a role in
prepaid-to-postpaid migration


14.Worldwide: Apple leads the high-end market and Chinese vendors are capturing demand at the low end


15.Worldwide: iOS's market share of unit sales will remain stable at around 15% until 2020


16.Regional trends


17.Sub-Saharan Africa: Low-cost models are still critical to smartphone adoption, but structural challenges remain


18.Sub-Saharan Africa : Key regional trends


19.Sub-Saharan Africa: The increasing level of social media engagement and demand for data connectivity will spur smartphone adoption


20.Country-level trends


21.Ghana: Strong demand for affordable handsets is bolstering
the informal supply chain


22.Kenya: Price competition and operators expanding their distribution channels are driving smartphone adoption


23.Nigeria: The smartphone adoption rate will continue to rise
despite a difficult economic outlook


24.South Africa: Handset subsidies will drive smartphone
adoption in the high-end segment


25.Forecast methodology and assumptions


26.Forecast methodology and assumptions


27.About the authors and Analysys Mason


28.About the authors


29.About Analysys Mason


List of figures


Figure 1: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2020


Figure 2: Mobile handset unit sales by type, and smartphones' share of unit sales, worldwide, 2012-2020


Figure 3: Smartphone unit sales by region, 2014 and 2020


Figure 4: Percentage of respondents who bought their most recent handset from an operator, 16 countries, and averages for 2014 and 2015


Figure 5: Device bundling and financing plans by type


Figure 6: Seven areas of consideration for operators when assessing the potential impact of SIM-only and vendor financing take-up


Figure 7: Choice of next mobile tariffandnbsp; by type among those who plan to change their tariffs, by current tariff type, 6 European countries, US and South Korea


Figure 8: Choice of next mobile tariffandnbsp; by type among those who plan to change their tariffs, by current tariff type, 8 countries in MEA and emerging APAC


Figure 9: Smartphone unit sales by manufacturer, worldwide, 2012-2020


Figure 10: Smartphone unit sales by operating system, worldwide, 2012-2020


Figure 11: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones' share of connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2020


Figure 12: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2020


Figure 13: Key regional trends in handset markets, Middle East and North Africa


Figure 14: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Ghana, 2012-2020


Figure 15: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Kenya, 2012-2020


Figure 16: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Nigeria, 2012-2020


Figure 17: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, South Africa, 2012-2020


Figure 18: Main enablers and constraints for our smartphone forecasts

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