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Globalisation and the Future of Trade 

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • -
  • 39 pages

Globalisation and the Future of Trade : Impact of Technologies, Changing Economic and Political Structures, and Regulations on Global Trade

Global trade has grown tremendously due to technological innovations in transportation and the resulting decline in shipping costs. Globalisation of supply chains and the unbundling of production processes have led to a hub-and-spoke model in trade. Simultaneously, there has been a proliferation of free trade agreements across the globe. However, global trade faces several challenges including worsening macroeconomic conditions, declining relevance of WTO, rising geopolitical tensions, and restrictions on migration. This study discusses the future of trade given the new technological, economic, political, and regulatory shifts globally.

Key Findings

Global trade has grown tremendously from ancient times due to technological innovations in transportation and the resulting decline in shipping costs.

- Globalisation of supply chains and the unbundling of production processes have led to a hub-and-spoke model in trade, with different regions/cities specialising in specific processes.

- Simultaneously, there has been a proliferation of free trade agreements (FTAs) across the globe. The World Trade Organization (WTO) also facilitates the lowering of trade tariffs. - Despite this, merchandise trade remains largely regional in nature.

- Trade and globalisation have led to greater access to capital, transfer of consumer surplus, knowledge and technology, and regulations.

- However, trade and globalisation also have negative impact such as environmental degradation, destruction of manufacturing jobs in high-wage countries, economic inequality, and a decline in peace and stability.

- The 2008 financial crisis and the slowing of economies around the world have led to a slow growth in trade.

- Other challenges faced by global trade include the declining relevance of WTO as a platform for trade negotiations, failure of the Doha Development Agenda, changing economic structure, rising geopolitical tensions, non-tariff barriers and restrictions on trade in services, and restrictions on migration.

- The failure of the WTO negotiations has led to countries signing bilateral trade deals, resulting in a phenomenon dubbed the “Spaghetti Bowl” of FTAs. A few political-economic trading blocs are emerging as well.

Table Of Contents

Globalisation and the Future of Trade 
1 GLOBALISATION AND THE FUTURE OF TRADE

Executive Summary
1 Key Findings
2 Key Findings

Current State of Global Trade
1 Top Traded Items across Historical Periods—Commodities
2 Exponential Growth in Global Trade
3 Unbundling in Global Trade
4 Proliferation of FTAs across the Globe
5 Trade is still Largely Regional in Nature
6 Effects of Globalisation of Trade
7 Positive Impact of Trade and Globalisation
8 Negative Impact of Trade and Globalisation

Challenges Faced by Global Trade
1 Challenges Faced by Global Trade
2 Challenges Faced by Global Trade
3 Challenges Faced by Global Trade
4 Challenges Lead to Slowdown in Global Trade Growth
5 Growth of Bilateral Trade Agreements
6 Emergence of Political-Economic Trading Blocs

Future of Global Trade and Investments
1 What does the Future Hold for Trade?
2 New Technologies will Increase Node-to-Node Trade
3 Unbundling of Global Economic Structures through Blockchains and Peer-to-Peer Structure
4 Global Political Conflicts may Change Trade Linkages
5 Homogenisation of Global Regulations to Favour Trade
6 Top Traded Items Across Historical Periods—Commodities
7 Top Traded Goods in 2150—A Hypothesis
8 Data as the New Oil
9 Legal Disclaimer

The Frost and Sullivan Story
1 The Frost and Sullivan Story
2 Value Proposition: Future of Your Company and Career
3 Global Perspective
4 Industry Convergence
5 360º Research Perspective
6 Implementation Excellence
7 Our Blue Ocean Strategy

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