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OEM Powertrain Strategies for CO2 Compliance in Europe towards 2021 : Early Innovators in Advanced Combustion and EV Technologies to Comply Sustainably

This report analyses the CO2 emission compliance road map of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in Europe. Nine OEMs are analysed to determine whether they will comply with their group target. The role of key powertrain technologies like direct injection, gasoline turbocharging, engine downsizing, and powertrain lightweighting as enablers to meet the 2020 targets is discussed for each OEM. This research gives a very detailed, segment-wise technology adoption roadmap of one of the most challenging standards in the world. Consequently, technologies and strategies discussed here are expected to define the future of powertrains across the world.

Executive Summary—Key Findings

CO2 Reduction Target: The CO2 reduction target for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) will reduce or get % more stringent by 2020. An analysis of the technology adoption roadmaps of major OEMs reveals that manufacturers such as PSA, Renault-Nissan, and Toyota are likely to meet their targets before 2021. The major OEMs like Daimler and BMW will have to expand their low-emission fleet, downsize or electrify their IC engines, and use advanced energy recovery techniques to complement these measures to achieve compliance by 2020.

Lighter Powertrains: Although CO2 targets get tough with reducing weight, a 100 kg-reduction in vehicle weight is expected to give twice as much fuel savings as the reduction in targets. As the materials are currently expensive, their economic combination and early achievement of economies of scale will give manufacturers competitive advantage in terms of fuel efficiency and cost.

Electrification: Every OEM will increase the penetration of electrified vehicles in its fleet, in varying proportions and through different technology paths. Renault-Nissan, for instance, is expected to have high leveraging on almost all levels of electrification by 2020. Diesel hybridisation is also expected to increase to minimise penalisation on diesels. By 2020, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, battery electric vehicles, and range extender vehicles together are expected to sell more than units.

Transmission Technologies: Dual-clutch transmissions (DCTs) are expected to lead the automated transmissions market, and will be coupled with both medium and high torque engines. High-speed automatic transmissions (ATs) will incrementally penetrate into powertrains, led by BMW and Daimler. In high-speed transmissions, % to % of the sales are expected to be DCTs. MT vehicles are expected to be progressively replaced by DCTs towards 2020.

Excess Emission Premium and Cost Impact: Excess emission premium paid by manufacturers will have a direct impact on purchase prices in varying scales. A gram above the target will cost € million for a manufacturer selling million vehicles in 2021. Therefore, larger vehicles will become more expensive. This will be in addition to the cost incurred on technology optimisation and the consequent price increase.

Key Questions This Study Will Answer

- Which OEMs in Europe will be compliant with their individual CO2 targets? Which OEMs will be non-compliant and by how much will they exceed their set CO2 target?
- What are the individual excess emission premium liability of each OEM in case of non-compliance with their 2020 CO2 target?
- What powertrain strategies are adopted by different OEMs in order to comply with their targets? What are the different technologies that will help ICE optimisation?
- What role does powertrain electrification play in helping OEMs achieve their 2020 CO2targets?
- What will be the optimum product portfolio for each OEM to minimise fleet CO2 emissions?

Table Of Contents

OEM Powertrain Strategies for CO2 Compliance in Europe towards 2021
1EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Executive Summary
1. Executive Summary—Key Findings
2. European Emission Regulation Ecosystem—2015-2021
3. CO2 Emission Control—Retrospection and Future Outlook
4. OEMs and CO2 Numbers—Class M1
5. Passenger Cars Technology Adoption Indices—Summary
6. CO2 Emissions and Targets—OEM Flashcards, 2021
7. Cost-Benefit Analysis of CO2 Reduction Technologies
8. Europe—Internal Combustion (IC) Engine Technology Forecasts
9. Production Forecast and Type Split—Electrified Powertrains
10. Diesel Sales Outlook for Europe—Retrospection and Future
11. Key Strategic Recommendations for CO2 Reduction

2RESEARCH SCOPE, OBJECTIVES, BACKGROUND, AND METHODOLOGY

Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology
1. Research Scope
2. Research Aims and Objectives
3. Key Questions This Study Will Answer
4. Research Background
5. Research Methodology
6. Research Methodology—Forecasting Model
7. Key OEMs Compared in this Study

3DEFINITIONS AND SEGMENTATION

Definitions and Segmentation
1. Vehicle Segmentation

4OEM PROFILE—BMW GROUP

OEM Profile—BMW Group
1. BMW Group—CO2 Emissions Fact Sheet
2. BMW Group—Strategic Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights
3. BMW Group—CO2 Compliance Roadmap
4. BMW Group—Segment-wise Technology Adoption/Optimisation Trends
5. BMW Group—Powertrain Technology Forecasts
6. BMW Group—Technology Adoption Indices: Category-wise Summary

5OEM PROFILE—DAIMLER GROUP

OEM Profile—Daimler Group
1. Daimler Group—CO2 Emissions Fact Sheet
2. Daimler Group—Strategic Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights
3. Daimler Group—CO2 Compliance Roadmap
4. Daimler Group—Segment-wise Technology Adoption/Optimisation Trends
5. Daimler Group—Powertrain Technology Forecasts
6. Daimler Group—Technology Adoption Indices: Category-wise Summary

6OEM PROFILE—FIAT GROUP

OEM Profile—FIAT Group
1. FIAT Group—CO2 Emissions Fact Sheet
2. FIAT Group—Strategic Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights
3. FIAT Group—CO2 Compliance Roadmap
4. FIAT Group—Segment-wise Technology Adoption/Optimisation Trends
5. FIAT Group—Powertrain Technology Forecasts
6. FIAT Group—Technology Adoption Indices: Category-wise Summary

7OEM PROFILE—FORD GROUP

OEM Profile—Ford Group
1. Ford Group—CO2 Emissions Fact Sheet
2. Ford Group—Strategic Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights
3. Ford Group—CO2 Compliance Roadmap
4. Ford Group—Segment-wise Technology Adoption/Optimisation Trends
5. Ford Group—Powertrain Technology Forecasts
6. Ford Group—Technology Adoption Indices: Category-wise Summary

8OEM PROFILE—HYUNDAI KIA GROUP

OEM Profile—Hyundai Kia Group
1. Hyundai Kia Group—CO2 Emissions Fact Sheet
2. Hyundai Kia Group—Strategic Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights
3. Hyundai Kia Group—CO2 Compliance Roadmap
4. Hyundai Kia—Segment-wise Technology Adoption/Optimisation Trends
5. Hyundai Kia Group—Powertrain Technology Forecasts
6. Hyundai Kia—Technology Adoption Indices: Category-wise Summary

9OEM PROFILE—PSA GROUP

OEM Profile—PSA Group
1. PSA Group—CO2 Emissions Fact Sheet
2. PSA Group—Strategic Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights
3. PSA Group—CO2 Compliance Roadmap
4. PSA Group—Segment-wise Technology Adoption/Optimisation Trends
5. PSA Group—Powertrain Technology Forecasts
6. PSA Group—Technology Adoption Indices: Category-wise Summary

10OEM PROFILE—RENAULT-NISSAN GROUP

OEM Profile—Renault-Nissan Group
1. Renault-Nissan Group—CO2 Emissions Fact Sheet
2. Renault-Nissan Group—Strategic Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights
3. Renault-Nissan Group—CO2 Compliance Roadmap
4. Renault-Nissan—Technology Adoption/Optimisation Trends
5. Renault-Nissan Group—Powertrain Technology Forecasts
6. Renault-Nissan—Technology Adoption Indices: Category-wise Summary

11OEM PROFILE—TOYOTA GROUP

OEM Profile—Toyota Group
1. Toyota Group—CO2 Emissions Fact Sheet
2. Toyota Group—Strategic Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights
3. Toyota Group—CO2 Compliance Roadmap
4. Toyota Group—Segment-wise Technology Adoption/Optimisation Trends
5. Toyota Group—Powertrain Technology Forecasts
6. Toyota Group—Technology Adoption Indices: Category-wise Summary

12OEM PROFILE—VOLKSWAGEN GROUP

OEM Profile—Volkswagen Group
1. Volkswagen Group—CO2 Emissions Fact Sheet
2. Volkswagen Group—Strategic Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights
3. Volkswagen Group—CO2 Compliance Roadmap
4. Volkswagen Group—Technology Adoption/Optimisation Trends
5. Volkswagen Group—Powertrain Technology Forecasts
6. Volkswagen Group—Technology Adoption Indices: Category-wise Summary

13CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE OUTLOOK

Conclusions and Future Outlook
1. Key Strategic Recommendations for CO2 Reduction
2. The Last Word—3 Big Predictions
3. Legal Disclaimer

14APPENDIX

Appendix
1. Abbreviations and Acronyms Used
2. Abbreviations and Acronyms Used
3. Learn More—Next Steps
4. Additional Sources of Information on Study Topic Area
5. Methodology

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