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OEM Powertrain Strategies for CO2 Compliance in Europe towards 2021

  • March 2016
  • 97 pages
  • Frost & Sullivan
Report ID: 3700104

Summary

Table of Contents

OEM Powertrain Strategies for CO2 Compliance in Europe towards 2021 : Early Innovators in Advanced Combustion and EV Technologies to Comply Sustainably

This report analyses the CO2 emission compliance road map of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in Europe. Nine OEMs are analysed to determine whether they will comply with their group target. The role of key powertrain technologies like direct injection, gasoline turbocharging, engine downsizing, and powertrain lightweighting as enablers to meet the 2020 targets is discussed for each OEM. This research gives a very detailed, segment-wise technology adoption roadmap of one of the most challenging standards in the world. Consequently, technologies and strategies discussed here are expected to define the future of powertrains across the world.

Executive Summary—Key Findings

CO2 Reduction Target: The CO2 reduction target for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) will reduce or get % more stringent by 2020. An analysis of the technology adoption roadmaps of major OEMs reveals that manufacturers such as PSA, Renault-Nissan, and Toyota are likely to meet their targets before 2021. The major OEMs like Daimler and BMW will have to expand their low-emission fleet, downsize or electrify their IC engines, and use advanced energy recovery techniques to complement these measures to achieve compliance by 2020.

Lighter Powertrains: Although CO2 targets get tough with reducing weight, a 100 kg-reduction in vehicle weight is expected to give twice as much fuel savings as the reduction in targets. As the materials are currently expensive, their economic combination and early achievement of economies of scale will give manufacturers competitive advantage in terms of fuel efficiency and cost.

Electrification: Every OEM will increase the penetration of electrified vehicles in its fleet, in varying proportions and through different technology paths. Renault-Nissan, for instance, is expected to have high leveraging on almost all levels of electrification by 2020. Diesel hybridisation is also expected to increase to minimise penalisation on diesels. By 2020, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, battery electric vehicles, and range extender vehicles together are expected to sell more than units.

Transmission Technologies: Dual-clutch transmissions (DCTs) are expected to lead the automated transmissions market, and will be coupled with both medium and high torque engines. High-speed automatic transmissions (ATs) will incrementally penetrate into powertrains, led by BMW and Daimler. In high-speed transmissions, % to % of the sales are expected to be DCTs. MT vehicles are expected to be progressively replaced by DCTs towards 2020.

Excess Emission Premium and Cost Impact: Excess emission premium paid by manufacturers will have a direct impact on purchase prices in varying scales. A gram above the target will cost € million for a manufacturer selling million vehicles in 2021. Therefore, larger vehicles will become more expensive. This will be in addition to the cost incurred on technology optimisation and the consequent price increase.

Key Questions This Study Will Answer

- Which OEMs in Europe will be compliant with their individual CO2 targets? Which OEMs will be non-compliant and by how much will they exceed their set CO2 target?
- What are the individual excess emission premium liability of each OEM in case of non-compliance with their 2020 CO2 target?
- What powertrain strategies are adopted by different OEMs in order to comply with their targets? What are the different technologies that will help ICE optimisation?
- What role does powertrain electrification play in helping OEMs achieve their 2020 CO2targets?
- What will be the optimum product portfolio for each OEM to minimise fleet CO2 emissions?

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