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  5. > Albania Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

Albania Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 61 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Weak oil prices have essentially stalled exploration and development work in Albania'supstream, and will negatively impact production in 2016. Two key companies are also looking to exit theirposition in the country as investment is pulled back.

We highlight the following trends and developments in Albania's oil and gas sector:

- We have revised down full-year oil production for 2015 and our forecast for 2016 due to reducedinvestment in the upstream.

- Bankers Petroleum, the top producer has suspended its drilling programme over H116 due to low oilprices.

- Bankers will focus on its polymer flood programme and is targeting 16 well conversions in H216, thoughonly if oil prices improve.

- As of January 2016, only one rig was operating in Albania, according to Baker Hughes.

- Petromanas sold its entire Albanian asset base to Shell in February 2016 for USD45mn.

- TransAtlantic is still in the process of marketing its entire Albanian portfolio, putting around 700b/d ofoil production and the country's best gas prospect at risk.

- We now see no domestic gas production over our forecast, with the TransAtlantic's Delvina prospectdelayed for years at best.

- The construction schedule of the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) - traversing Albania on its route fromGreece to Italy - remains on track for gas deliveries in 2020.

- The refining sector has seen little benefit from stronger global fuels demand. The country produces nogasoline which supported strong margins over the last 18 months.

Table Of Contents

Albania Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Albania 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Table: Albania Exploration Blocks and Status 10
Upstream Production - Oil 13
Latest Updates 13
Structural Trends 13
Table: Oil Production (Albania 2014-2019) 15
Table: Oil Production (Albania 2020-2025) 15
Upstream Production - Gas 16
Latest Updates 16
Structural Trends 16
Refining 17
Latest Updates 17
Structural Trends 17
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Albania 2014-2019) 19
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Albania 2020-2025) 19
Refined Fuels Consumption 20
Latest Updates 20
Structural Trends 20
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Albania 2014-2019) 21
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Albania 2020-2025) 21
Gas Consumption 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends 22
Table: Gas Consumption (Albania 2014-2019) 22
Table: Gas Consumption (Albania 2020-2025) 23
Trade - Oil 24
Latest Updates 24
Crude Oil 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Albania 2014-2019) 25
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Albania 2020-2025) 26
Refined Fuels 26
Structural Trends 26
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Albania 2014-2019) 26
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Albania 2020-2025) 26
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Gas Net Exports (Albania 2014-2019) 29
Table: Gas Net Exports (Albania 2020-2025) 29
Industry Risk Reward Index 30
Central And Eastern Europe - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 30
Table: Regional Risk/Reward Index Averages - High Risk, Low Reward In Central And Eastern Europe 30
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index 31
Upstream: China Still The Target Market 32
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Upstream Risk/Reward Index 34
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 35
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Downstream Risk/Reward Index 37
Albania - Risk/Reward Index 39
Market Overview 40
Albania Energy Market Overview 40
Political Regime 40
Table: BMI Albania Political Overview Table 40
Fiscal Regime 41
Table: State Take Of Oil And Gas Revenues - Adriatic and East Mediterranean 41
Table: Fiscal Structure 42
Oil and Gas Licensing 42
Table: Exploration and Production Rights 42
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 43
Table: Albania Refineries 43
Table: Ballsh and Fier Refinery Setup 43
Oil Infrastructure 44
Table: Existing Oil Pipelines 44
Gas Infrastructure 44
Table: Existing Gas Pipelines 45
Regional Overview 46
Central And Eastern Europe Oil And Gas Regional Overview 46
Oil Production: Output Growth Stalling 46
Oil Consumption: Weak EM Growth Softens Demand 47
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Over Capacity Growth 48
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Depends On China's Hunger 49
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 50
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 51
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Oil And Gas Production And Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 52
Glossary 54
Table: Glossary Of Terms 54
Methodology 56
Industry Forecast Methodology 56
Source 58
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 58
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 60
Table: Weighting 61

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