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  5. > Angola, Botswana And Namibia Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

Angola, Botswana And Namibia Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 72 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We believe rising incomes and growing populations in Angola, Botswana and Namibia will seethese countries enjoy long-term production growth in the corn sector. While there will be bumps along theway, we are ultimately predicting these countries to see output growth outpace consumption growth overour forecast period to 2020. Meanwhile, in the sugar sector we see Angolan production accelerating overthe forecast period, defying the increase in cheap imports from Brazil and China that will inevitablycompete with local production.

Key BMI Forecasts

- Angolan corn production from 2015/16 to 2019/20: 41% to 1.97mn tonnes. After two years ofbumper output growth, production is forecast to see a drop in 2016. We expect production to thenaccelerate once more in 2017 before remaining flat through to the end of the forecast period.

- Botswana corn production from 2015/16 to 2019/20: Flat to 4,000 tonnes. Insufficient rains during thecropping season caused widespread crop failure and prevented any increase in output in 2015. This willcause a severe drop in production in 2016, and we believe the market will fail to recover through to 2020.

- Angolan sugar consumption growth from 2015/16 to 2019/20: 52.6% to 512,000 tonnes. After threeconsecutive years of back-to-back growth in demand, we expect consumption to increase marginally by2% in 2016 before remaining flat through to the end of our forecast period.

Table Of Contents

Angola, Botswana And Namibia Agribusiness Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 12
Grains Outlook 12
Table: Angola, Botswana And Namibia - Grains Production and Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Risk To Outlook 13
Table: Angola, Botswana, Namibia, Corn Production and Consumption ('000 tonnes) 15
Sugar Outlook 16
Table: Angola - Sugar Production and Consumption Outlook 16
Table: Risks To Outlook 16
Table: Angola Sugar Production and Consumption, 2014-2020 18
Commodity Price Analysis 19
Global Commodities Strategy 19
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 19
Upstream Analysis 21
Africa Machinery Outlook 21
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions 21
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012) 26
Africa GM Outlook 27
Table: Farm Size By Region 31
Africa Fertiliser Outlook 33
Downstream Analysis 40
Angola - Food 40
Latest Updates 40
Structural Trends 41
Table: Food Sales (Angola 2013-2020) 42
Botswana - Food 44
Latest Updates 44
Structural Trends 45
Table: Food Sales (Botswana 2013-2020) 46
Namibia - Food 47
Latest Updates 47
Structural Trends 48
Table: Food Sales (Namibia 2013-2020) 48
Regional Overview 50
Middle East and Africa Regional Overview 50
Demographic Forecast 56
Angola - Demographic Forecast 56
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Angola 1990-2025) 57
Table: Key Population Ratios (Angola 1990-2025) 57
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Angola 1990-2025) 58
Table: Population By Age Group (Angola 1990-2025) 58
Table: Population By Age Group % (Angola 1990-2025) 59
Botswana - Demographic Forecast 61
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Botswana 1990-2025) 62
Table: Key Population Ratios (Botswana 1990-2025) 62
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Botswana 1990-2025) 63
Table: Population By Age Group (Botswana 1990-2025) 63
Table: Population By Age Group % (Botswana 1990-2025) 64
Namibia - Demographic Forecast 66
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Namibia 1990-2025) 67
Table: Key Population Ratios (Namibia 1990-2025) 67
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Namibia 1990-2025) 68
Table: Population By Age Group (Namibia 1990-2025) 68
Table: Population By Age Group % (Namibia 1990-2025) 69
Methodology 71
Industry Forecast Methodology 71
Sector-Specific Methodology 72

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