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Copper Metals Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 65 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We have revised down our average copper price forecast for 2016 to USD4,900/tonne. Weexpect prices to find a floor over the first half of 2016, and begin to stabilise thereafter, supported byproduction cuts and modest consumption growth.

Latest Developments And Structural TrendsPrice Forecast

- We have lowered our average copper price forecast to USD4,900/tonne from USD5,400/tonne in 2016due to a global surplus hangover and cooling consumption. Following our downward revisions, our 2016forecast is in line with Bloomberg consensus, around USD4,863/tonne, while we are below consensusfor 2017-2020. This position reflects our broader view of commodities to stabilise rather than reboundafter bottoming out over 2016.Production

- Global copper production will contract in 2016 due to the weak price environment. We forecast globaloutput to decline by 0.4% in 2016 and return to muted growth over 2017-2020.

- China will drive the contraction in global supply in 2016, as key refiners cut production. Major stateownedfirms will target high-cost assets and those below environmental standards for closure.

- Chile will remain the second largest global producer of refined copper, with output growth acceleratingover our forecast period to 2020, supported by major miners' plans to ramp up ore output. We forecastChile's refined copper output to average 2.5% annual growth over 2016-2020.

- India and Zambia will emerge as bright spots in global copper production growth, supported bygovernment initiatives to increase metal output and low production costs.

Table Of Contents

Copper Metals Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 5
BMI View 5
Table: Global - Copper Supply, Demand and Price Forecasts 5
Price Forecast 7
Table: BMI Copper Forecasts 7
Table: Global Copper Supply, Demand and Price Forecasts 13
Global Trends In Supply, Demand And Trade 14
Table: Global - Copper Supply, Demand and Price Forecasts 15
Table: Refined Copper Production Forecasts 17
Table: Refined Copper Consumption Forecasts 21
Mine Supply: Copper Ore 23
Mine Supply 23
Table: Global - Key Copper Projects 29
Table: Global Copper Production Forecasts ('ooo tonnes) 30
Competitive Landscape 32
Table: Largest Listed Copper Producers By Market Capitalisation, 2015 36
Company Profile 38
Antofagasta - Q2 2016 38
Table: Enter table header 41
Codelco - Q2 2016 43
Table: Codelco - Key Financial Data 46
Freeport-McMoRan 47
Table: Freeport McMoRan - Key Financial Data 51
Glencore 53
Table: Glencore - Key Financial Data 57
Global Company Strategy - Grupo Mexico - Q2 2016 59
Table: Grupo Mexico - Key Financial Data 62
Data Appendix 64
Appendix 64
Table: Global - Copper Supply, Demand and Price Forecasts 64
Table: Refined Copper Production Forecasts 65
Table: Refined Copper Consumption Forecasts 65

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