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Executive Analysis of the Global Rail Market 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • -
  • 136 pages

Participants Push towards Consolidation in Highly Competitive Environment for High-value Greenfield Infrastructure Projects

This deliverable provides an outlook of growth opportunities in the global rail market. The study discusses key trends, market drivers, opportunities, regional influences, and market dynamics and provides market sizes for infrastructure and rolling stock on a global scale. Market forecasts by region (Africa, Asia-Pacific, Eastern Europe, Western Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and North America) are provided for ridership, freight traffic, network length, rail electrification, and installed bases for locomotives, passenger coaches, multiple units, and wagons. The study period is from 2015 to 2022, and strategic conclusions have been provided.

2015 Key Highlights
The global economy slowed to % in 2015, effects of which were not felt in the rail industry.

1 With growth expected to reach % in 2016, strong growth is forecast in rail freight and passenger traffic. North America (NA) invested heavily in rail Infrastructure in 2015
- Investments to reach the positive train control (PTC) mandate have crossed the halfway mark at $ billion. Over % of required locomotives are equipped with PTC equipment.
- More than $ billion will be invested by federal grants over a 4-year period, starting in 2015.
- Class 1 railroads are expected to spend a total of $ billion to build and grow the network.

2 Major enhancements to rail infrastructure are a key focus in Europe
- Projects of € billion in cost are underway across Europe. Of these, over € billion worth of projects are still estimated to be addressable by market participants.

3 Further consolidation occurs in the rail market
- Alstom acquired GE Signalling and sold its energy business to GE.
- Hitachi acquired Ansaldo STS and AnsalsoBreda from Finmeccanica at a deal that is expected to total over € billion.

4 Rail freight patterns are changing worldwide
- Intermodal rail traffic in the United States saw growth of carloads, as compared to 2013 levels.
- Reducing coal consumption is freeing up rail freight capacities for other commodities, sparking a major shortage of wagons worldwide.

5 South Africa and India placed the biggest orders in rail in 2015
- GE Transportation won orders for over locomotives in India and over locomotives in South Africa.

Table Of Contents

Executive Analysis of the Global Rail Market 2016
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Executive Summary
2015 Key Highlights
2015-2016 Rail Industry Senior Management Top-of-mind Issues
Top 5 Predictions—2016

2. GLOBAL RAIL MARKET OVERVIEW

Global Rail Market Overview
Overview of Forecasts
Overview of Global Rail Traffic
Rail Traffic Growth Tied Strongly to Urbanization
Overview of Global Rail Electrification

3. GLOBAL ROLLING STOCK SUPPLIER MARKET OVERVIEW

Global Rolling Stock Supplier Market Overview
Merger of CSR and CNR to CRCC Dwarfs the Entire Market
CRRC and Freight Rail Rolling Stock Suppliers to See Highest Growth
Rail OEMs Trying to Operate across the Entire Rail Value Chain
Consolidation among Rolling Stock Manufacturers in 2015

4. EMISSION STANDARDS FOR RAIL APPLICATIONS IN EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA

Emission Standards for Rail Applications in Europe and North America
Passenger Vehicles and Heavy Trucks as Largest Sources of Emissions
EPA Emission Standards for Locomotives in the United States
PM and NOx Reduction
Tier 4 Engine Trends in NA
Market Positioning of Low Emission Locomotives
Rail Contribution to Emissions—Europe
Impact of Stage IIIA Rail Norms Clearly Visible in 2011 Figures
Proposed Stage V Targets Particulate Emissions for Diesel Engines
PM versus NOx Level Analysis for Railcars and Locomotives—Stage V

5. REGIONAL FOCUS—NORTH AMERICA

Regional Focus—North America
Passenger Operators Take Increasing Technology Presence
New Generation of Locomotives from Several OEMs
Rail Passenger Traffic Projections
Investments in US Rail—Federal and Class 1
Freight Railroad in the United States
Coal—Most Carried Freight in Class I Railroads
Increasingly Diverse Commodities Transported by Rail Freight
Intermodal—Largest Growth in Demand in 2014
Intermodal Rail Freight Traffic Flow—United States
Intermodal Rail Freight Traffic Forecast
About 60% of all Intermodal Rail Traffic Converges at Chicago
Poor Service Levels—Congestion Pricing and Contracts
Wagon Leasing Agencies to Continue Expanding Fleet in 2016
GE Dominates Locomotive Market in the United States
US Locomotive Market
Shale Gas and Future Implications
LNG Engine RandD in NA

6. REGIONAL FOCUS—EUROPE

Regional Focus—Europe
Major Enhancement of Rail Infrastructure Key Focus till 2020
HSR Expected to be Major Area of Spending by 2020
Freight Rail Traffic in Europe
Russia and Germany—Highest Rail Freight Traffic in Europe
European Rail Freight Caters to Extremely Diverse Industries
Number of Wagons Estimated to Operate in Europe—565,390
EMU Preferred for Passenger Service
Total of 2,763 Locomotives and 9,082 MUs to be Delivered by 2022
GE Might Further Expand European Presence through Vossloh
Alstom, Bombardier, and Stadler Dominate the MU Market

7. REGIONAL FOCUS—INDIA

Regional Focus—India
Network Capacity Expansion the Primary Target of Indian Rail
Indian Railways Proposed Investment Plan (2015 to 2019)
Over 39 Cities in India Looking at Urban Rail Systems
India Looking at Connecting Key Regional Cities with HSR
Investments Planned to Separate Rail Freight Traffic

8. REGIONAL FOCUS—SOUTH AFRICA

Regional Focus—South Africa
Overview of the Rail Industry in South Africa
Overview of the Rail Freight Market in South Africa
Investment in the South African Freight Rail Industry
New Generation of Locomotives from Several OEMs
Transnet—Strategy to Position Itself as a Leading Manufacturer in Africa

9. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY IN THE GLOBAL RAIL INDUSTRY

Information Technology in the Global Rail Industry
Fleet Telematics Expected to See Sharp Increase in Adoption in 2016
Scale of Big Data in Petabytes
Advanced Lead Ranking and Conversion for Rail Environment
Performance Improvement Possibilities with Predictive Analytics

10. CONCLUSIONS

Conclusions
Key Conclusions and 2016 Outlook
Rail Research Titles—2012 to 2025
Legal Disclaimer

11. APPENDIX

Appendix
Table of Acronyms Used
Market Engineering Methodology

12. MEGA TRENDS AND SMART CITIES

Mega Trends and Smart Cities
Mega Trends Shaping Future of Logistics
Mega Trend—Urbanization and Smart Cities
Mega Trends Driving Logistics Industry
Mega Trend—Urbanization
Smart Cities Creating a Smart World
Mobility Landscape—Many Participants, New Partnerships, New Models
Six Key Pillars to the Smart Train Definition of Every OEM

13. FORECAST TABLES—GLOBAL MAINLINE PASSENGER RAIL VOLUMES

Forecast Tables—Global Mainline Passenger Rail Volumes
Passenger Ridership Forecasts—Africa
Passenger Ridership Forecasts—APAC
Passenger Ridership Forecasts—Eastern Europe
Passenger Ridership Forecasts—Western Europe
Passenger Ridership Forecasts—LATAM, Middle East, and NA

14. FORECAST TABLES—GLOBAL MAINLINE FREIGHT TRAFFIC

Forecast Tables—Global Mainline Freight Traffic
Freight Traffic Forecasts—Africa
Freight Traffic Forecasts—APAC
Freight Traffic Forecasts—Eastern Europe
Freight Traffic Forecasts—Western Europe
Freight Traffic Forecasts—LATAM, Middle East, and NA

15. FORECAST TABLES—GLOBAL MAINLINE RAIL TRACK LENGTH

Forecast Tables—Global Mainline Rail Track Length
Length of Rail Network Forecasts—Africa
Length of Rail Network Forecasts—APAC
Length of Rail Network Forecasts—Eastern Europe
Length of Rail Network Forecasts—Western Europe
Length of Rail Network Forecasts—LATAM, Middle East, and NA

16. FORECAST TABLES—GLOBAL ELECTRIFIED MAINLINE RAIL TRACK LENGTH

Forecast Tables—Global Electrified Mainline Rail Track Length
Length of Electrification Forecasts—Africa and APAC
Length of Electrification Forecasts—Eastern Europe
Length of Electrification Forecasts—Western Europe
Length of Electrification Forecasts—LATAM, Middle East, and NA

17. FORECAST TABLES—LOCOMOTIVES IN MAINLINE SERVICE

Forecast Tables—Locomotives in Mainline Service
Locomotives in Installed Base Forecasts—Africa
Locomotives in Installed Base Forecasts—APAC
Locomotives in Installed Base Forecasts—Eastern Europe
Locomotives in Installed Base Forecasts—Western Europe
Locomotives in Installed Base Forecasts—LATAM, Middle East, and NA

18. FORECAST TABLES—PASSENGER COACHES IN MAINLINE SERVICE

Forecast Tables—Passenger Coaches in Mainline Service
Passenger Coaches in Installed Base Forecasts—Africa
Passenger Coaches in Installed Base Forecasts—APAC
Passenger Coaches in Installed Base Forecasts—Eastern Europe
Passenger Coaches in Installed Base Forecasts—Western Europe
Passenger Coaches in Installed Base Forecasts—LATAM, Middle East, and NA

19. FORECAST TABLES—MULTIPLE UNITS IN MAINLINE SERVICE

Forecast Tables—Multiple Units in Mainline Service
MUs in Installed Base Forecasts—Africa and APAC
MUs in Installed Base Forecasts—Eastern Europe
MUs in Installed Base Forecasts—Western Europe
MUs in Installed Base Forecasts—LATAM, Middle East, and NA

20. FORECAST TABLES—FREIGHT WAGONS IN MAINLINE SERVICE

Forecast Tables—Freight Wagons in Mainline Service
Wagons in Installed Base Forecasts—Africa
Wagons in Installed Base Forecasts—APAC
Wagons in Installed Base Forecasts—Eastern Europe
Wagons in Installed Base Forecasts—Western Europe
Wagons in Installed Base Forecasts—LATAM, Middle East, and NA

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