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Rapidly Evolving Defence Markets—Poland

  • March 2016
  • 35 pages
  • Frost & Sullivan
Report ID: 3717461

Summary

Table of Contents

Charting the Progress of Polish Defence Modernisation

The Polish defence forces are undergoing the most ambitious modernisation programme in the country's history. The country's Technical Modernisation Programme, along with military activities in neighbouring Ukraine, relaxed offset regulations, and the newly introduced mandatory 2% spending of GDP on defense, all continue to drive consistent government spending in the defence sector. This study seeks to chart the progress of Polish defence modernisation efforts against the most recent market restraints and examine the current status of procurement programmes, the impact of recent elections, and long-term defence spending projections.

Key Findings
- The Polish market is expected to grow at a stable % between 2015 and 2025. The government’s recent % rise in the mandatory allocation of annual GDP to defence spending builds on top of a % consolidated growth rate (since 1988) and reinforces the view that Poland’s defence market remains one of the most competitive across the world.
- The country’s Technical Modernisation Programme remains a driving force behind the rise in defence spending, the augmented imports, and the increased tender offers. However, the recent change in government is affecting the timeline and the progress of the programme as the new executives look to review key pre-election procurement decisions.
- Military activities in Crimea/Ukraine are perceived as a significant threat, thereby bolstering domestic export opportunities. The country’s recent introduction of a Regional Security
Assistance Programme has generated export interests in neighbouring countries, notably Slovakia.
- The new offset laws adopted in June 2014 have significantly relaxed offset regulations in line with European Union (EU) obligations. Under the new Offset Act, there is no automatic application of offset requirements, and the € million offset applicability threshold has been dropped.
- In the long term, domestic OEMs that now face intense competition from European and foreign OEMs to meet Polish procurement needs will capture the primary share of the Polish market as modernisation efforts are completed and as defence spending declines.

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