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Global Powertrain Outlook 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • -
  • 79 pages

Diesel Vehicles to Decline by 1–1.5% Globally, EVs to Grow, and Powertrains to Continue their Innovation Pursuit

The study provides region-wise analysis of powertrain technologies, key highlights from the powertrain industry in 2015, and the key trends to look ahead in 2016. Major markets covered are European Union, North and South America, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, and ASEAN. Technologies such as engine downsizing, direct injection, turbocharging, after-treatment systems, diesel engines, hybrid, and battery electric and fuel cell powertrains have also been discussed in detail. New vehicle, engine, and transmission launches for 2015–2016 have been discussed. The study concludes with strategic recommendations for market participants on new testing procedures, diesel investments, alternative propulsion technologies, and market focus.

2015 Key Highlights
Share of diesel vehicles declined by % in Europe; NA market also turned hostile, following the diesel gate scandal. DI engines grew by %, high-speed transmission by %, and EVs had % growth over 2014.
- Passenger car sales grew significantly in North America ( %), Europe ( %) and China ( %).
Impact of VW scandal was not significant on yearly sales as it fell towards the last quarter. European diesel sales share dropped by over %. France witnessed the most substantial decline; its diesel share went down by more than %.
- Exposure of diesel gate scandals turned the eyes of regulatory authorities towards diesel powertrains and testing procedures. German regulators have approved VW’s fixing procedure for its 1.2L, 1.6L and 2.0L engines, while in North America, the company faces a strong challenge because of stricter NOx regulations. Across regions, this scandal reinforced the need for standardized emission testing, reflecting real driving conditions.
- Adoption of high-speed transmissions: As OEMs strengthen their bet on performance models across segments, the adoption rate of high-speed transmissions grew by % over 2014. Approximately % more SUVs came fitted with 8-plus speed AT and DCTs in 2015. North America witnessed the fastest growth, followed by Western European markets.
- Powertrains continued to make innovative strides. Direct injection (DI) technology grew by more than % among gasoline engines. North America produced % more DI engines in 2015, while EU produced % more. Technology innovations such as dual injection system and Atkinson/Millers cycle signaled the willingness of OEMs to take tangential path for regulatory compliance.
- More than 0.5 million EVs were sold globally in 2015. This is more than % growth over 2014 levels. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) grew by % and PHEVs by more than % in 2015. In China, EV sales more than doubled, clocking close to million in 2015. Europe nearly doubled its EV sales, from in 2014 to units in 2015.

Top Powertrain and Electric Vehicle Predictions for 2016
Diesel will decline by %, giving way to other gasoline and alternative powertrains, but will continue to evolve to address fleet fuel economy requirements. Anticipation of tougher standards will keep development costs high.
- Gasoline Diesel Equation: Exposure of excessive emissions from diesel engines will turn the wave against them, from imposing stronger penalties to banning sales in different markets. This is expected to weaken the sales share of diesel engines by % globally, throwing opportunities to advanced gasoline engines, full hybrids, and electrics.
- OEM Approach towards Diesel: Amidst strong regulatory control, OEMs will continue with their endeavor at developing cleaner diesel technologies as they form an integral part of fuel economy compliance across the fleet. Spearheaded by German OEMs, these technologies will be brought on to powertrains, and will continue to add to energy efficiency, rendering better driving dynamics.
- Atkinson Cycle, Dual Injection, and More: Toyota is expected to launch more engines running on energy-efficient Atkinson cycle for non-hybrid applications and a self-cleaning dual injection system. Japanese automakers are expected to embrace more of DI and boosting, while European makers are expected to embrace more electrification in powertrains, making it a year of large-scale innovations.
- Evolution of Testing Standards: Emission testing procedures are expected to move closer towards reflecting real driving conditions. Although implementation of WLTP will take a while, development of powertrain technologies at OEMs will be tuned to these requirements, creating great pressure on suppliers and consequently increasing product development and overall costs.
- Synchronization of OEM R&D Efforts: As OEMs realize the effect of duplication of engineering and R&D efforts and the value of co-research and development, it is expected that this year will witness the next level of cooperation among some OEMs for the development of energy-efficient powertrains at a lower cost and lesser development and execution time.

Table Of Contents

Global Powertrain Outlook 2016

Executive Summary
2015 Key Highlights
2015-2016 Powertrain Industry—Top-of-Mind Issues
Top Powertrain and Electric Vehicle Predictions for 2016


Research Scope and Segmentation
Research Scope
Vehicle Segmentation


Market Overview
Global Crude Oil Price Trend and Regional Impact
Key Highlights of 2015—Region-wise
Global Powertrain Mix—Unit Shipment by Region Snapshot
Engine Displacement of Top Produced Segments by Country
Key 2016 Powertrain Market Trends
Powertrain Split by Propulsion Type—Unit Shipment
Powertrain Technology Development—OEM Focus
Market Breakdown by Segment and Propulsion Types' Growth
Impact to Regulatory Framework due to Emission Scandal
Regional Strategy for Testing Procedures
VW Crisis—Push towards Electric Vehicles


Europe Powertrain Outlook
Europe—Unit Production Forecast
Europe—Passenger Cars Unit Shipment Trend, Diesel vs. Gasoline


North America Powertrain Outlook
North America—Unit Shipment Forecast by Powertrain Mix and OEM
North America—Unit Shipment Forecast by Powertrain Mix and Segment


China Powertrain Outlook
China—Unit Shipment Forecast by Powertrain Mix and Transmission Type
China—Key Technology Adoption Outlook, 2020
Emission Standards
Emission Standards—Supply Plan of China V Gasoline


Japan Powertrain Outlook
Japan—Unit Sales Forecast by OEM and Propulsion
Japan—Unit Production Forecast by Segment


Brazil Powertrain Outlook
Brazil—Unit Production Forecast by OEM and Powertrain Mix
Brazil—Unit Production Forecast by Fuel Type and Vehicle Segment


India Powertrain Outlook
India—Unit Shipment Forecast by Powertrain Mix and OEM
India—Unit Shipment Forecast by Powertrain Mix and Vehicle Segment


South Korea Powertrain Outlook
South Korea—Unit Shipment Forecast by OEM and Powertrain Mix
South Korea—Unit Shipment Forecast by Vehicle Segment and Powertrain Mix


Turkey and ASEAN Powertrain Outlook
Turkey—Unit Shipment by OEM and Propulsion
Turkey—Unit Shipment by Segment and Propulsion
ASEAN—Unit Shipment Forecast by Powertrain Mix


2016 Select Technology Outlook
Global Powertrain Focus Areas in 2016—Engine Outlook
Global Powertrain Focus Areas in 2016—Transmission Outlook
Closer Look at Engine Lightweighting—Construction and Opportunities
Powertrain Technology Update—Gasoline Boosting
GDI Unit Production Forecast by Region
SCR Unit Production Forecast—Key Regions, OEM Split for 2016
EV Sales by OEM—2015 Vs. 2016
PHEV and EV Sales
Fuel Cell Vehicles
Transmission Unit Production Forecast by Type and Segment
High-speed Transmissions—Unit Shipment Forecast by Region and Technology


2015-2016 Key Powertrain and Vehicle Launches to Watch
Key 2015-2016 Market Introductions—Engines
Key 2015-2016 Market Introductions—Transmissions
Key 2015-2016 Market Introductions—Hybrids and EVs
Key 2015-2016 Market Introductions—Hydrogen-fuelled Vehicle


Conclusions and Future Outlook
Key Conclusions and 2016 Outlook


Comparison of FE/GHG Standards—Passenger Cars
Table of Acronyms Used
Legal Disclaimer
Market Engineering Methodology

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