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  5. > Small & Medium Renewable Energy Generation Market Report - UK 2016-2020

The report 'Small & Medium Renewable Energy Market Report – UK 2016-2020' builds on AMA Research's previous reports on the microgeneration market, and the scope of the report has been expanded to cover renewable electricity generation up to 5MW and renewable heat generation up to 200 kWth. Drawing together information and data from a wide range of sources, and with over 50 charts and tables, this report provides an integrated overview of recent trends and market prospects for renewable electricity and heat generation technologies including; solar PV and thermal, windpower, hydropower, anaerobic digestion & biomass boilers and heat pumps.

Key sections covered:
- Review of small and medium renewable energy technologies - solar photovoltaics, windpower, hydropower, anaerobic digestion with biogas, solar thermal and biomass boilers & wood fuelled stoves, ground & air source heat pumps.
- Overview of the renewable energy sector - key market factors - Feed In Tariff (FIT), Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI), Renewables Obligation etc.
- Recent developments - impact of FIT, RHI and RO on annual number of installations & capacity installed for each, changes made by the new Conservative government affecting climate change and renewable energy policy.
- Future prospects - market forecasts by installed values for 2018 and 2020.

Key areas of insight include:
- Market overview by capacity, installation numbers and estimated installed values.
- Technology sector sizes by installed capacities & numbers of installations, end user mixes and by tariff capacity bands.
- Assessment of impacts of Feed -In Tariff, Renewable Heat Incentive etc. 2010 -2015 and on forecasts by value for 2018 and 2020.

Key areas covered in the report include:

MARKET OVERVIEW
- Overview of trends in total fossil fuel and renewable energy generation 2010 -2014 by technology type.
- Overview of market size and trends for small –medium renewable energy 2010 -2015 by capacity and by value.
- Identification of key market drivers for the 2010 -2015 period – Feed in Tariff, Renewable Heat Incentive, Renewables Obligation.
- Market forecasts by installed values for 2018 and 2020.

SOLAR PV to 5MW
- Total solar PV market by capacity; split by FIT, RO, unaccredited & cumulative trends 2010-2015.
- Sub 5 MW solar PV market 2010 -2015 by annual capacity installed; split by FIT, RO etc; identification of key drivers e.g. FIT, RO and falling costs.
- Market mixes and trends 2010-2015 by capacity bands; sub 50 kW and >50kW -5 MW.
- End user mix by capacity installed & trends; domestic, commercial & industrial.
- Market forecasts by installed values for 2018 and 2020, and key factors impacting e.g. reduced subsidies.

ONSHORE WINDPOWER TO 5MW
- Overall sub 5 MW windpower market 2010 -2015 by annual capacity installed; identification of key drivers e.g. FIT etc.
- Market mixes and trends 2010-2015 for each of the FIT capacity bands from <= 15kW up to >1,500 kW.
- Overview of total end use mix by capacity installed; domestic, commercial & industrial; End use mixes within each of the FIT capacity bands and trends.
- Market forecasts by installed values for 2018 and 2020, and key factors e.g. reduced subsidies.

HYDROPOWER TO 5MW
- Overall market by capacity; split by FIT, RO. Trends for total and FIT capacity to 2015.
- End user mixes by number installations & by capacity size bands and market trends.
- Market forecasts by installed values for 2018 and 2020, and key factors.

SOLAR THERMAL
- Recent trends by area installed 2010 - 2015 and key factors e.g. RHI.
- End use market mix, domestic vs commercial.
- Market forecasts by installed values for 2018 and 2020, and key factors.

BIOMASS - WOOD FUELLED BOILERS & STOVES AND ANAEROBIC DIGESTION
- Anaerobic digestion with biogas - market trends by plant numbers & capacity 2010 -2015. Key trends in on-farm and commercial; Trends in number of plants by sector; water, on-farms & commercial; Trends in FIT sector by capacity bands 2009 -2014. Market forecasts by installed values for 2018 and 2020, and key factors.
- Biomass boilers – non domestic installations under RHI: trends by capacity 2012-2015, mix by size, market mix by end user by capacity. Market size & trends in domestic installations for 2018 and 2020.

GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMPS
- Overview of market size & trends by numbers supplied, 2010-2015; market factors.
- Installations under the non-domestic RHI; market mix air vs ground source.
- Installations under the domestic RHI; market mix air vs ground source and by applications.
- Market forecasts by installed values for 2018 and 2020, and key factors.

Table Of Contents

Small and Medium Renewable Energy Generation Market Report - UK 2016-2020
1. INTRODUCTION 8
1.1 BACKGROUND 8
1.2 SOURCES OF INFORMATION 8
2. SUMMARY 10
3. ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT 12
3.1 GDP 12
3.2 INFLATION and INTEREST RATES 13
3.3 UNEMPLOYMENT 14
3.4 HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION 14
3.5 HOUSING and CONSTRUCTION 15
3.6 STERLING 16
3.7 POPULATION PROFILE 16
3.8 CONCLUSIONS 17
4. MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS 18
4.1 DEFINITION 18
4.2 RENEWABLE ENERGY OVERVIEW 19
4.3 SUB 5 MW RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS 21
4.4 MARKET PROSPECTS 24
4.4.1 Overview 24
4.4.2 Reduction in Feed In Tariffs 26
4.4.3 Proposed Exemption to 5% VAT Rate 27
4.4.4 Removal of Climate Change Levy Exemption Certificates 27
4.4.5 Abandonment of the Zero Carbon Homes Policy 27
4.4.6 Community Energy And Withdrawal Of Tax Breaks 28
4.4.7 Closure of the RO to New Sub 5 MW Solar PV and Onshore Windpower 28
5. SOLAR PV 30
5.1 INTRODUCTION 30
5.2 RECENT TRENDS 30
5.2.1 Overview of Total Solar PV Market 30
5.2.2 Solar PV up to 5 MW 32
5.2.3 End User Mix 37
5.3 MARKET PROSPECTS 38
5.4 SUPPLY 40
6. ONSHORE SMALL TO MEDIUM WINDPOWER 41
6.1 DEFINITION 41
6.2 RECENT TRENDS 41
6.3 MARKET PROSPECTS 46
6.4 SUPPLY 47
7. SMALL SCALE HYDROPOWER 48
7.1 INTRODUCTION 48
7.2 MARKET TRENDS 48
7.3 MARKET PROSPECTS 51
7.4 SUPPLY 52
7.4.1 Developers and Operators 52
8. SOLAR THERMAL 53
8.1 INTRODUCTION 53
8.2 RECENT TRENDS 54
8.3 END USE MARKETS FOR SOLAR THERMAL SYSTEMS 55
8.4 MARKET PROSPECTS 55
9. BIOMASS 57
9.1 INTRODUCTION 57
9.2 ANAEROBIC DIGESTION 57
9.2.1 Recent Trends 57
9.2.2 Market Prospects 60
9.3 BIOMASS BOILERS 61
9.3.1 Market Size and Trends 61
9.3.2 Suppliers 63
10. HEAT PUMPS 65
10.1 INTRODUCTION 65
10.2 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS 66
10.3 MARKET PROSPECTS 68
10.4 SUPPLY 68

List of Tables and Charts

CHART 1 UK MARKET FOR SMALL -MEDIUM RENEWABLE ENERGY SCHEMES BY INSTALLED VALUES (£M) 2010 -2015 AND FORECASTS 2018 AND 2020 10
TABLE 2 GDP DATA - 2012-2015 - KEY CONSTITUENT ELEMENTS 12
CHART 3 INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION (CPI) FROM 2000-2020 14
CHART 4 PDI and SAVINGS RATIO AT CURRENT PRICES 2000-2020 15
TABLE 5 EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS 2011-2017 - STERLING TO THE DOLLAR, AND THE EURO, SPOT RATES 16
CHART 6 UK ELECTRICITY GENERATION SHARE BY FUEL TYPE (COAL, GAS, NUCLEAR, RENEWABLES AND OTHERS*) GWH 2009-2014 19
CHART 7 SMALL-MEDIUM (UP TO 5 MW) RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET BY % SHARE BY TECHNOLOGY BY ESTIMATED INSTALLED VALUES 2015 21
CHART 8 UK MARKET FOR SMALL -MEDIUM RENEWABLE ENERGY SCHEMES BY INSTALLED VALUES (£M) 2010 -2015. 22
CHART 9 TOTAL QUARTERLY INSTALLED SUB 5 MW CAPACITY (MW) UNDER FIT APRIL-JUNE 2010 TO SEP 2015. 23
CHART 10 TOTAL INSTALLED RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY CAPACITY UNDER FIT (MW) BY TECHNOLOGY 1 APRIL 2010 - 31 SEPTEMBER 2015 23
CHART 11 RENEWABLE HEAT INCENTIVE - TRENDS IN THE NUMBER OF QUARTERLY ACCREDITED INSTALLATIONS 2012 -2015 24
CHART 12 FORECASTS FOR SMALL-MEDIUM RENEWABLE ENERGY SCHEMES BY INSTALLED VALUES (£M) 2015, 2018 AND 2020 25
TABLE 13 NEW GENERATION FEED IN TARIFFS FEBRUARY 2016 26
CHART 14 TOTAL SOLAR PV INSTALLATIONS BY SUBSIDY SCHEME (FIT, RO, ETC) BY INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW) AS OF DECEMBER 2015 31
CHART 15 UK SOLAR PV BY CUMULATIVE INSTALLED CAPACITY BY SUBSIDY SCHEME (FIT, RO, OTHER, TOTAL) 2009-2015 32
CHART 16 ANNUAL TRENDS IN SUB 5 MW SOLAR PV SECTOR (FIT and RO COMBINED) BY CAPACITY (MW) 2009 - 2015 33
CHART 17 TOTAL SUB 5 MW SOLAR PV INSTALLATIONS BY SUBSIDY SCHEME (FIT, RO, ETC BY INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW) 2015 34
CHART 18 AVERAGE INSTALLATION COSTS PER KW FOR 4 KW ROOF MOUNTED SOLAR PV SYSTEMS APRIL 2010 -FEBRUARY 2015 35
CHART 19 SOLAR PV INSTALLED CAPACITY BY SIZE BAND SINCE THE FIRST ROUND OF DEGRESSION IN 2012 35
CHART 20 SUB 50 KW SOLAR PV SYSTEMS - QUARTERLY INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW) BY SUBSIDY SCHEME (FIT, RO) JANUARY -MARCH 2010 TO APRIL -JULY 2015. 36
CHART 21 50 KW - CHART 22 SUB 5 MW SOLAR PV SUPPORTED BY FIT AND RO (MW) BY END USE SECTOR BY CAPACITY 1 APRIL 2010 - Q3 2015 38
CHART 23 FORECASTS FOR SUB 5 MW SOLAR PV BY INSTALLED VALUES (£M) 2015, 2018 AND 2020 39
TABLE 24 FEED IN TARIFFS FOR SOLAR PV INSTALLATIONS FEBRUARY 2016 VS OCTOBER -DECEMBER 2015 39
TABLE 25 FIT BANDING FOR WINDPOWER SCHEMES BY INSTALLED CAPACITY 41
CHART 26 SMALL -MEDIUM ONSHORE WINDPOWER SUPPORTED BY FIT BY INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW) 2009 - 2015 42
CHART 27 SMALL-MEDIUM WINDPOWER SUPPORTED BY FIT BY END USE SECTOR BY INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW) 1 APRIL 2010 - 31 SEPTEMBER 2015 42
CHART 28 SMALL-MEDIUM WINDPOWER SUPPORTED BY FIT BY CAPACITY BANDS (MW) 2009 -2015 43
CHART 29 SMALL-MEDIUM WINDPOWER BY END USERS BY FIT INSTALLED CAPACITY UP TO 15 KW 1 APRIL 2010 -31 SEPTEMBER 2015 44
CHART 30 SMALL-MEDIUM WINDPOWER BY END USERS BY FIT INSTALLED CAPACITY >15-100 KW 1 APRIL 2010 -31 SEPTEMBER 2015 44
CHART 31 SMALL-MEDIUM WINDPOWER BY END USERS BY FIT INSTALLED CAPACITY UP TO >100 - 500 KW 1 APRIL 2010 -31 SEPTEMBER 2015 45
CHART 32 SMALL-MEDIUM WINDPOWER BY END USERS BY FIT INSTALLED CAPACITY OVER 500 KW 1 APRIL 2010 -31 SEPTEMBER 2015 45
CHART 33 FORECASTS FOR SMALL -MEDIUM WINDPOWER (UP TO 5 MW) BY INSTALLED VALUES (£M) 2015, 2018 AND 2020 46
TABLE 34 WINDPOWER TARIFF RATES FEBRUARY 2016 VS APRIL -SEPTEMBER 2015 46
CHART 35 SMALL - MEDIUM HYDROPOWER BY % OF INSTALLATIONS BY CAPACITY SIZE BANDS (KW) 48
CHART 36 SMALL- MEDIUM SCALE HYDROPOWER - TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW) BY SUBSIDY PROGRAMME IN 2015 49
CHART 37 SMALL-MEDIUM SCALE HYDROPOWER BY TOTAL NUMBER OF INSTALLATIONS SUPPORTED BY FIT BY END USERS 49
CHART 38 SMALL-MEDIUM SCALE HYDROPOWER BY TOTAL CAPACITY (MW) SUPPORTED BY FIT BY END USERS 2015 50
CHART 39 TOTAL INSTALLED SMALL - MEDIUM SCALE HYDROPOWER CAPACITY (CHART 40 FORECASTS FOR SMALL -MEDIUM HYDROPOWER (UP TO 5 MW) BY INSTALLED VALUES (£M) 2016, 2018 AND 2020 51
CHART 41 FIT RATES FOR SMALL-MEDIUM SCALE HYDROPOWER 52
CHART 42 UK DEMAND FOR SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTORS BY INSTALLED AREA BY TYPE (FLAT PLATE and VACUUM) 2015 53
CHART 43 UK MARKET FOR SOLAR THERMAL SYSTEMS BY AREA INSTALLED 2009-2015 54
CHART 44 UK MARKET FOR SOLAR THERMAL SYSTEMS BY END USER SECTOR (DOMESTIC, NON-DOMESTIC) BY HEAT PAID FOR (MWH) UNDER THE RHI AS AT DECEMBER 2015 55
CHART 45 FORECASTS FOR SOLAR THERMAL BY INSTALLED VALUES (£M) 2016, 2018 AND 2020 56
CHART 46 UK MARKET FOR NON-WATER ANAEROBIC DIGESTION SCHEMES - NUMBER OF PLANTS AND INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW) 2010 -2015 57
CHART 47 NUMBERS OF ANAEROBIC DIGESTION PLANTS BY USER SECTOR (WATER INDUSTRY, FARMS, AND COMMERCIAL) - COMPLETED 2009-2015 58
CHART 48 ANAEROBIC DIGESTION SCHEMES SUPPORTED BY FIT BY CAPACITY BANDS 2009 - 2015 59
CHART 49 FORECASTS FOR ANAEROBIC DIGESTION PLANTS BY INSTALLED VALUES (£M) 2016, 2018 AND 2020 60
CHART 50 NON-DOMESTIC RHI INSTALLATIONS - TOTAL HEAT CAPACITY (MWTH) UNDER THE SCHEME AS AT 30 NOVEMBER 2015 61
CHART 51 WOOD FUELLED BOILERS BY CAPACITY INSTALLED (MWTH) AND HEAT GENERATED UNDER THE NON-DOMESTIC RHI 2012-2015 62
CHART 52 DEMAND FOR WOOD FUEL BOILERS UNDER THE NON-DOMESTIC RHI BY MAIN USER SECTOR BY INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW) 62
CHART 53 BOILER SALES MIX BY TYPE OF FUEL (GAS-FIRED, OIL-FIRED, ELECTRIC, ETC.) - BY VOLUME 2014 63
CHART 54 UK MARKET ESTIMATES FOR HEAT PUMPS BY NUMBER OF UNITS INSTALLED 2005 - 2015 66
CHART 55 INSTALLATIONS OF HEAT PUMPS UNDER THE RHI 2011 -2015 (DOMESTIC, COMMERCIAL) 67
CHART 56 INSTALLATIONS OF HEAT PUMPS UNDER THE RHI BY PUMP TYPE AND APPLICATION 2011 -2015 67

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