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  4. > The Fixed services in developed Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021

"Most countries in developed Asia–Pacific have mature telecoms markets; total telecoms retail revenue will increase steadily between 2015 and 2021 at a 1.5% CAGR, thanks to service improvements."

The number of fixed broadband connections in developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP) is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.2% during the forecast period, mainly driven by FTTP/B. In addition, increasing fixed broadband penetration will provide strong momentum for IPTV revenue growth.

This report provides commentary and trend analysis to support our 5-year forecast for developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP). It includes both worldwide and regional insights.

The report provides forecasts that are informed by on-the-ground market experts from our Research and Consulting divisions, and external interviews.
For the complete data set for the region, please see the accompanying Excel file at www.analysysmason.com/FBB-DVAP-Jan2017.


Who should read this report
- Market intelligence, strategy and project managers at fixed operators in DVAP that wish to gain a better understanding of local market demands and future trends, as well as best practices overseas.
- Regulatory bodies in DVAP that want to deepen their understanding of local markets and trends in overseas markets.
- Financial institutions that directly invest in the telecoms sector in the region, or advise others that do so, in order to gain qualitative and quantitative market information
- Press and media bodies that need a foundation of knowledge about the fixed telecoms market in Asia–Pacific.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE
Regions modelled:
Developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP)

Countries modelled individually:
Australia
Hong Kong
Japan
Singapore
South Korea
Taiwan


KEY METRICS
Fixed connections
Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
Narrowband voice, VoBB
DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed revenue
Service revenue1, retail revenue
Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Voice traffic
Outgoing minutes, MoU

Table Of Contents

The Fixed services in developed Asia-Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016-2021
Contents

Executive summary
Worldwide trends
Revenue worldwide will increase in the mobile and fixed segments, driven by infrastructure investments in network roll-out
Fixed services: FTTP/B predominance in DVAP and EMAP will boost worldwide fibre subscription to over 1 billion in 2021
Fixed broadband: Household penetration will increase in all regions, driven by the availability of NGA and attractive bundles
Regional trends
Revenue and ARPU: DVAP telecoms retail revenue will maintain healthy growth, driven by new services and bundling
Fixed services: FTTP/B migration will drive fixed broadband market growth from 2016 to 2021 and support IPTV growth
Fixed broadband: fixed broadband penetration growth during the forecast period will be driven by bandwidth demand and NBN plans
Geographical coverage: By 2021, 4G/5G will account for 90% of mobile connections; FTTB household penetration will reach 93%
DVAP - fixed: NGA penetration will continue to increase, driving IPTV take-up and slowing down the decline in ASPU
Forecast methodology and assumptions
We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics
We use a vast variety of primary and secondary research for data collection; we use five key drivers and follow strict principles in forecasts
A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our forecasts; this involves three main activities
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors
About Analysys Mason
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason


List of figures
Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, worldwide, 2015-2021
Figure 3: Fixed broadband connections by type, and mobile broadband, fixed voice, VoBB and IPTV connections, worldwide, 2011-2021
Figure 4: Fixed broadband penetration of households by region, 2011-2021
Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, developed Asia-Pacific, 2015-2021
Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, developed Asia-Pacific, 2015-2021
Figure 8: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
Figure 9: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA's share of fixed broadband connections, by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2021
Figure 11: Fixed penetration rates by service type, DVAP, 2011-2021
Figure 12: Fixed ASPU by service type, DVAP, 2011-2021
Figure 13: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, DVAP

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