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Tajikistan Power Report Q2 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 43 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Tajikistan will rely overwhelmingly on hydroelectric power generation during our 10-yearforecast period, but will suffer from power generation shortfalls over the next decade, due to headwinds todiversification into other sectors, notably gas. The deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop - with Chinaslowing down, Russia experiencing poor economic performance and commodity prices falling - underscoresour muted view this quarter.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- The devaluation of the Kazakh tenge puts pressure on the currencies of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. In particular, the Kyrgyz and Tajik economies are likely to suffer themost, as they rely heavily on remittances from Kazakhstan and a poorly performing Russia.

- The development of Kyrgyzstani and Tajikistani hydropower will remain a contentious issue in CentralAsia, as Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan strongly oppose developments due to worries that the downstreamof the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers will suffer negative consequences.

- In July 2015, the European Investment Bank granted a EUR70mn (USD79.2mn) loan to build a 500kV,477km-long transmission line that will transfer hydroelectric power between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

• In September 2014, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani attended the inauguration of the second unit at theSangtuda Hydroelectric power plant on the Vakhsh River. The 110MW unit was developed by the Iraniancompany Sangob, and revenues from the project will be transferred to Iran for the first 12 years of powergeneration.

Table Of Contents

Tajikistan Power Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Tajikistan 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 9
Tajikistan Snapshot 9
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data (Tajikistan 2015-2020) 9
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data (Tajikistan 2020-2025) 9
Tajikistan Power Forecast Scenario 9
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 10
Natural Gas Generation And Capacity Forecast 13
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 14
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2014-2019) 14
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2020-2025) 14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2014-2019) 15
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2020-2025) 15
Electricity Consumption 15
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2014-2019) 16
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2020-2025) 16
Transmission And Distribution 16
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2014-2019) 17
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2020-2025) 17
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 18
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index 18
Tajikistan Industry Risk/Reward Index 24
Risk/Reward Index 24
Market Overview 28
Regulation And Competition 28
Pricing 28
Tajikistan - Projects Database 30
Competitive Landscape 32
Barki Tojik 32
Regional Overview 33
Europe - CEE Power: Affordable Coal To Trump Renewables 33
Table: Turkey - Ambitious Renewables Targets 35
Glossary 37
Table: Glossary Of Terms 37
Methodology 38
Methodology And Sources 38
Industry Forecast Methodology 38
Sources 41
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 41
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 42
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 43

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