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Burundi Country Risk Report 20 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 33 pages

Core Views Continued political instability in the country will weigh on Burundi's economic growth prospects over the year ahead. We expect modest real GDP growth of 1.1% in 2016 as a result of subdued private consumption and contraction in fixed investment in the country. Inflationary pressure in Burundi will remain below its long-term trend over the next two years as food price inflation stabilises and as oil prices remain low. This will allow the Banque de la République du Burundi to strengthen its ability to control the non-food component of inflation in the years ahead. The government of Burundi will face a significant decline in revenue in 2016, driving the budget deficit deeper.

We expect donor support, which constitutes around 50% of the budget, to dry up as donors suspend aid amid continued political turmoil. Burundi's current account balance will fall further into deficit over 2016 and 2017 as aid flows fall drastically. Suspension of aid by foreign donors and a weak export base will exert significant pressure on the country's external position. We believe that the African Union's decision to send human rights and military monitors to Burundi will not prevent unrest in the country over the year ahead. While there are a number of plausible outcomes, our core view remains that the current status quo will continue for the next six months, with economic growth hindered by the substantial level of political risk.

Table Of Contents

Burundi Country Risk Report 20 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Economic Growth To Stagnate Amid Domestic Turmoil8
Continued political instability in the country will weigh on Burundi's economic growth prospects over the year ahead We expect
modest real GDP growth of 11% in 2016 as a result of subdued private consumption and a contraction in fixed investment in the
country
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS 9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS9
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS9
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS 9
Monetary Policy 10
Supply Side To Stabilise Inflation10
Inflationary pressure in Burundi will remain below its long-term trend over the next two years as food price inflation stabilises and as oil
prices remain low Moderating inflation will allow the Banque de la Republique du Burundi to strengthen its ability to control the non-food
component of inflation in the years ahead
Monetary Policy Framework 11
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook 12
Aid Suspension To Fuel Deficit12
The government of Burundi will face a significant decline in revenue in 2016, driving the budget deficit deeper We expect donor support,
which constitutes around 50% of the budget, to dry up as donors suspend aid amid continued political turmoil
Structural Fiscal Position 13
External Trade And Investment Outlook 14
Current Account Deficit To Widen Sharply14
Burundi's current account balance will fall further into deficit over 2016 and 2017 as aid flows fall drastically Suspension of aid by
foreign donors and a weak export base will exert significant pressure on the country's external position
Outlook On External Position 15
TABLE: TOP FIVE EXPORTS IN 201416
TABLE: TOP FIVE IMPORTS 201416
Long-Term Economic Outlook 17
Domestic Unrest Will Hinder Economic Growth Prospects17
Burundi's economy is set for a decade of restrained growth as unrest within the country continues to thwart growth opportunities
Domestic protests and the government's heavy-handed approach to political opposition will result in a protracted conflict over the years
ahead Land scarcity and high poverty levels will weigh further on domestic stability and economic growth
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS 17
Chapter 2: Political Outlook 19
SWOT Analysis 19
BMI Political Risk Index 19
Domestic Politics 20
Five Potential Outcomes From Conflict20
We believe that the African Union's decision to send human rights and military monitors to Burundi will not be sufficient to prevent
further unrest over the year ahead While there are a number of plausible outcomes, our core view remains that the current status quo
will continue for the next six months, with economic growth hindered by the substantial level of political risk
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW20
Long-Term Political Outlook 22
No End In Sight To Domestic Unrest22
The government of Burundi will face significant pressure over the years ahead as domestic unrest continues in the wake of President
Pierre Nkurunziza's third-term election in July 2015 We expect domestic and international pressure to exacerbate tensions within the
country as Nkurunziza holds onto power in the years ahead
Chapter 3: Demographic Outlook 25
Demographic Outlook 2016 25
TABLE: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP 26
TABLE: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP % 26
TABLE: POPULATION HEADLINE INDICATORS 27
TABLE: KEY POPULATION RATIOS 27
TABLE: URBAN/RURAL POPULATION and LIFE EXPECTANCY 27
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook 29
Global Macro Outlook 29
Tail Risks Mounting Amid Sub-Par Growth29
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS29
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %30
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, 2015 AND 2016 (%) 30
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %31
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS33

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