1. Market Research
  2. > Food Market Trends
  3. > Greece Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Greece Country Risk Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 45 pages

Core Views A return to marginal positive real GDP growth rates in 2016 will be followed by years of sluggish growth. A slight improvement in 2016 will mainly be driven by the removal of capital controls and a slight uptick in consumer confidence. These growth rates will be insufficient to help Greek households and firms recover from the huge destruction of wealth the country has endured during its depression. One of the few bright spots for Greece is its current account, which is likely to remain in surplus over the coming years, having been at a deficit of over 10% of GDP only a few years ago. Consumer price index (CPI) growth will remain in positive territory, due to a slight recovery in domestic demand, the ongoing impact of VAT hikes, and supply-side issues for the food sector.

The ruling Syriza administration will struggle to maintain popular support while implementing strict bailout fiscal consolidation plans and the number of migrants likely to arrive again in Greece in 2016. Major Forecast Changes We have revised up our estimate for 2015 real GDP growth to -0.3% in 2015, from -1.6% previously. This is due to the fact that coincident and lagging indicators showed the impact of political uncertainty and the imposition of capital controls were not as severe as we had previously expected.

Table Of Contents

Greece Country Risk Report Q2 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Major Forecast Changes5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Economy Healthcheck: Hard To See Any Sustainable Growth Drivers8
Economic activity will remain well below the level needed for Greece to return to anywhere close to its potential output A lack of
sustainable growth drivers, fiscal deficit reduction and rising political risk will keep Greece anchored to a painfully sluggish economic
growth trajectory over the coming years
TABLE: BMI ECONOMIC DASHBOARD9
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 11
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS 11
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS11
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS11
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS12
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS 12
External Trade And Investment Outlook 13
Surpluses Good For Stability13
Greece will run current account surpluses in the coming years This is net positive from a macroeconomic and financial market stability
perspective, by reducing the risk posed by any potential capital flight
Outlook On External Position 15
TABLE: CAPITAL and FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE15
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS AND DESTINATIONS IN 201416
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS AND SOURCES 201416
Monetary Policy 17
Inflation Here To Stay, Just17
Inflationary pressures will build gradually in the coming months, but cheap oil and subdued domestic demand will ensure price growth
remains well below the ECB's loose 20% target
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast 19
The Greek Economy To 2025 19
Another Lost Decade Ahead19
Greece's economy will remain along a painfully sluggish growth trajectory over the next decade An unsustainable debt load, harsh
fiscal austerity conditions, and dire demographics will conspire to prevent the country returning to anywhere close to pre-financial crisis
levels in real GDP terms
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS19
Chapter 3: Political Outlook 21
SWOT Analysis 21
BMI Political Risk Index 21
Domestic Politics 22
Syriza Facing Growing Challenges22
Support for the ruling Syriza-led coalition will decline in 2016, as the government implements painful bailout conditions and struggles to
cope with migrant arrivals, and as disaffected voters return to New Democracy
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW22
Regional Politics 25
EU-Greece Tensions Another Blow To Schengen Zone25
There are no signs that the migrant crisis is nearing an end, and the pressure this is placing on the passportless Schengen zone
continues to rise The chances of the Schengen agreement remaining in place in its current guise are shrinking by the day, and the
extension of border checks within the zone for two years would require significant reforms if the zone is to remain in existence beyond
that timeframe
Long-Term Political Outlook 26
A Decade Of Austerity And Instability26
Greece's political landscape is likely to remain tumultuous over the coming years The legacy of fiscal profligacy and economic
distortions will leave an indelible mark on the Greek economy and society, with political voices becoming even more fragmented We
therefore expect a prolonged bout of austerity and instability in the decade ahead
Chapter 4: Operational Risk 29
SWOT Analysis 29
Operational Risk Index 29
Operational Risk 30
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - LABOUR MARKET RISK30
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - LOGISTICS RISK34
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - CRIME AND SECURITY RISK36
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK39
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook 41
Global Macro Outlook 41
Tail Risks Mounting Amid Sub-Par Growth41
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS41
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %42
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, 2015 AND 2016 (%) 42
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %43
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS45

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Veronica

+1 718 514 2762

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Food Preparation 2016; Market, Retailers and Consumers

Food Preparation 2016; Market, Retailers and Consumers

  • $ 8600
  • Industry report
  • August 2016
  • by Verdict Retail

Summary Food preparation expenditure is expected to rise 1.8% in 2016. Growth in 2015 and 2016 has been predominantly volume driven, with the category benefitting from the cooking at home, healthy eating ...

The Global Market for Food Additives

The Global Market for Food Additives

  • $ 6650
  • Industry report
  • August 2016
  • by BCC Research

This BCC Research report analyzes the changing global food industry and its business climate, including data relating to and discussion of the diet and food distribution systems and major factors that ...


Download Unlimited Documents from Trusted Public Sources

Poultry Statistics in the UK

  • December 2016
    7 pages
  • Poultry  

  • United Kingdom  

View report >

Food Markets in the US

  • December 2016
    10 pages
  • Food  

  • United States  

View report >

Fruit And Vegetable Industry in Canada and the US

  • December 2016
    41 pages
  • Fruit  

    Apple  

    Grape  

  • Canada  

    United States  

View report >

Food Statistics

3 days ago

ref:plp2016

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.