1. Market Research
  2. > Energy & Environment
  3. > Energy
  4. > Oil and Gas Energy Market Trends
  5. > Italy Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Italy Country Risk Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 43 pages

Core Views Real GDP growth will come in at 1.0% in 2016, well below eurozone averages but the strongest outturn since 2010. European Central Bank monetary stimulus, an easing fiscal drag, cheaper oil prices and a weakening euro will be tailwinds for regional and domestic growth in the coming quarters. Domestic demand will drive growth in the coming years. This will ensure a steady narrowing of the current account surplus, which we forecast to have peaked in 2015. We view positively the urgent structural reform agenda of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, and note that promising progress has been made so far. Internal divisions and falling popular support for the ruling party, as well as the potential for additional bank bail-ins to hit depositors and spur a government crisis, are the most prominent risk to the reform agenda at present. A failure to follow through on the structural reform agenda will imperil Italy’s long-term growth trajectory, and raises the risks that the public sector debt burden will become unsustainable. Even if reforms aimed at addressing Italy’s decline in productivity growth and external competitiveness are passed, an ageing demographic profile will make debt consolidation efforts over the long term exceedingly difficult. Major Forecast Changes No major forecast change.

Table Of Contents

Italy Country Risk Report Q2 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Major Forecast Changes5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Reforms Not Yet Having Desired Effect8
Tight credit conditions and a weak labour market will continue to weigh on Italy's growth in 2016, despite the passage of reforms aimed
at addressing each issue We are modestly below consensus in our real GDP growth forecasts of 10% and 12% in 2016 and 2017,
respectively
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 10
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS11
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS11
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS11
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook 11
Low Inflation Biggest Obstacle To Public Deleveraging11
European Central Bank (ECB) action has been responsible for major improvements in Italy's debt sustainability by lowering
borrowing costs and interest repayment burdens That said, additional ECB easing is having diminishing returns and rapid public debt
consolidation will remain out of reach given Italy's weak nominal GDP growth potential
Structural Fiscal Position 13
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES13
External Trade And Investment Outlook 14
Energy Savings Boost Current Account14
Italy's current account surplus will begin narrowing in 2016 as domestic demand improves and the boost from lower oil prices runs
its course Euro depreciation has been only a modest tailwind for the export sector, and weak external competitiveness will weigh on
growth of exports Inward foreign direct investment remains in decline despite structural reforms aimed at improving the business
operating environment
Outlook On External Position 16
TABLE: CAPITAL and FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE16
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 201417
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 201417
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast 19
The Italian Economy To 2025 19
Major Macroeconomic Challenge Ahead19
We believe that the Italian economy will continue to face a very modest rate of growth over the longer term, weighed down by lower
credit availability, a weaker external environment, and waning global competitiveness We also warn that major challenges, such as the
government debt load, a deteriorating demographic profile, structural decline in productivity and potential political instability, pose threats
to longer-term economic prosperity
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS19
Chapter 3: Political Outlook 21
SWOT Analysis 21
BMI Political Risk Index 21
Domestic Politics 22
Economic Headwinds Raise Political Risks22
Prime Minister Matteo Renzi appears safe for now, but mounting economic headwinds could undermine his government There are
several plausible scenarios in which fresh elections are called before end-2016, and polls indicate that the anti-establishment 5-Star
Movement could beat Renzi's centre-left Democratic Party in a head-to-head matchup
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW22
Long-Term Political Outlook 23
Fiscal Rebalancing To Weigh On Social Cohesion23
Regardless of subsequent government's ideological leanings, Italian policymakers will be constrained by Italy's massive public debt load
and will be forced to enact unpopular measures over the next decade This will limit the government's ability to tackle poverty and social
discontent, with the north-south socio-economic divide widening We also expect Italy's regional and global standing to decline, and
finally, we see populist and xenophobic parties gaining momentum over the coming years
Chapter 4: Operational Risk 27
SWOT Analysis 27
Operational Risk Index 27
Operational Risk 28
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - LABOUR MARKET RISK28
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - LOGISTICS RISK32
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - CRIME AND SECURITY RISK34
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK37
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook 39
Global Macro Outlook 39
Tail Risks Mounting Amid Sub-Par Growth39
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS39
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %40
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, 2015 AND 2016 (%) 40
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %41
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS43

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Veronica

+1 718 514 2762

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Crude Oil Flow Improvers Market by Type, Application, Supply Mode - Global Forecast to 2021

Crude Oil Flow Improvers Market by Type, Application, Supply Mode - Global Forecast to 2021

  • $ 12000
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by MarketsandMarkets

“Rise in crude oil production worldwide drives the COFI market” The global market size of COFI is estimated to reach USD 1.73 billion by 2021 from 1.32 billion in 2016, at a CAGR of 5.5%. Excessive ...

Filter Bags Market - Global Industry, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2016 - 2024

Filter Bags Market - Global Industry, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2016 - 2024

  • $ 7000
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by Transparency Market Research

The filter bags market report provides an in-depth analysis of the global filter bag market for the period 2014 – 2024, wherein 2015 is the base year and the years from 2016 to 2024 is the forecast period. ...


ref:plp2016

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.