1. Market Research
  2. > Tourism and Leisure Market Trends
  3. > Mauritius Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Mauritius Country Risk Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 31 pages

Core Views We forecast modest real GDP growth in Mauritius in 2016 and 2017, bolstered by falling oil prices, expansionary fiscal policy, and a recovery in investment. We forecast growth of 4.2% and 4.4% in 2016 and 2017, respectively, compared with 3.4% in 2015. Risks to political stability should be limited in the short-term, as the recently elected government overseas a period of accelerating economic activity. The government is set to put an emphasis on spurring economic growth ahead of fiscal consolidation, meaning an increase in the budget deficit is likely in the short term. This is unlikely to pose a serious threat to broader economic stability in itself, although higher deficits and rising public debt will leave the country more vulnerable to external shocks or shifts in investor sentiment.

Table Of Contents

Mauritius Country Risk Report Q2 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Large-Scale Infrastructure Projects To Boost Growth8
Mauritius' economic growth will accelerate over the coming years, boosted by large-scale public investment and economic
rapprochement with India and China Nevertheless, real GDP growth will remain below the government's forecast of 53% for 2015/2016
and 57% for 2016/2017, as private investment remains relatively subdued
TABLE: INCENTIVES FOR THE SMART CITY PROJECTS8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS 9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook 11
Widening Deficits As Fiscal Policy Moves Expansionary11
Mauritius' fiscal deficit will increase over the coming quarters, as the government pushes forward with its strategy to develop large-scale
infrastructure projects This will be reinforced by the government continuing with its policy to increase tax breaks to support private
investment and domestic consumption As a result, the government will miss its medium-term debt reduction target
Structural Fiscal Position 12
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE and EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES 12
External Trade And Investment Outlook 13
Wide C/A Deficits On The Horizon13
Mauritius' current account deficit will remain wide in 2016, as the
uptick in tourism receipts and exports is matched by a surge in imports, brought about by the implementation of large-scale
infrastructure projects by the government
Outlook On External Position 14
TABLE: CAPITAL and FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS 201415
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS 201515
Monetary Policy 16
Weak Global Outlook To Prompt Rate Cut In June16
The Bank of Mauritius (BM) will remain dovish over 2016 and cut its policy rate by 25bps to 415%, in order to support economic activity
amid further uncertainties surrounding the global economy Weak global commodity prices throughout 2016 will give BM space to
manoeuvre without worrying about inflation spiralling out of control
Monetary Policy Framework 17
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast 19
The Mauritian Economy To 2025 19
Service Sector Drives Long-Term Growth19
Real GDP growth in Mauritius will be driven by the development of service industries over the coming decade This will be powered by
government investment into the key sectors of tourism, medical tourism, education, banking, and shipping services
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS19
Chapter 3: Political Outlook 23
SWOT Analysis 23
BMI Political Risk Index 23
Domestic Politics 24
Increasing Economic Relations With China And India24
Mauritius will increasingly look towards China and India for foreign direct investment over the coming years, as the government embarks
on large-scale infrastructure projects to support economic growth Despite closer historical and cultural ties with India, China will likely
increase its influence faster than the latter, given that Beijing is already ahead in its investment strategy in Mauritius
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook 27
Global Macro Outlook 27
Tail Risks Mounting Amid Sub-Par Growth27
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS27
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %28
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, 2015 AND 2016 (%) 28
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %29
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS31

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Ahmad

+1 718 618 4302

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Global Tourism Spend Analytics to 2020: Accommodation, Entertainment and Sightseeing, Foodservice, Retail, Transportation, Travel Intermediation, Others

Global Tourism Spend Analytics to 2020: Accommodation, Entertainment and Sightseeing, Foodservice, Retail, Transportation, Travel Intermediation, Others

  • $ 14995
  • Industry report
  • October 2016
  • by Canadean Ltd

Summary Tourism Spend (Expenditure under taken on Travel and Tourism related commodities by a tourist within a country. This expenditure is categorized in to accommodation, sightseeing and entertainment, ...

Global Tourism Demand and Flow, 2011 - 2020: Domestic and International Trips Analytics

Global Tourism Demand and Flow, 2011 - 2020: Domestic and International Trips Analytics

  • $ 14995
  • Industry report
  • October 2016
  • by Canadean Ltd

Summary Tourism Demand (Factors that influence time and money spent on tourism. Typical factors include the number of holiday days available to an employee in their country and mean household income) and ...

Global Travel Intermediaries Business, 2011 to 2020

Global Travel Intermediaries Business, 2011 to 2020

  • $ 14995
  • Industry report
  • October 2016
  • by Canadean Ltd

Summary Travel Intermediaries (part of a business that assists in selling travel products and services to customers, which may include airline tickets, car rentals, hotels, railway tickets, and package ...

Enhanced Monthly Statistics

November 2016 $ 9600

ref:plp2016

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.