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Netherlands Country Risk Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 23 pages

Core Views Real GDP growth in the Netherlands in 2016 will be driven mainly by domestic demand, bolstered by a fiscal stimulus package, and a sustained recovery in the housing market. Net exports will make only a modest contribution to growth due to stagnating external demand from the eurozone and lower gas export volumes. The Netherlands is likely hold an early parliamentary election in 2016, as the ruling centre-right VVD seeks to gain new coalition partners, which would help it regain its lost majority in the upper house. The rising popularity of ultra-nationalist PVV will serve to draw other centrist parties together, and boost their willingness to cooperate in forming a coalition government, while isolating the PVV from power.

Table Of Contents

Netherlands Country Risk Report Q2 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Key Risks 5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Growth Supported By Fiscal Stimulus, Rising House Prices8
Real GDP growth in the Netherlands in 2016 will be driven mainly by domestic demand, bolstered by a fiscal stimulus package, and
a sustained recovery in the housing market Net exports will make only a modest contribution to growth due to stagnating external
demand from the eurozone and lower gas export volumes
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 9
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS10
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS10
Chapter 2: Political Outlook 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Political Risk Index 13
Domestic Politics 14
Popularity Of Ultra-Nationalist PVV To Draw Centrist Parties Closer14
The Netherlands is likely hold an early parliamentary election in 2016, as the ruling centre-right VVD seeks to gain new coali tion
partners, which would help it regain its lost majority in the u pper house The rising popularity of ultra-nationalist PVV will serve to
draw other centrist parties together, and boost their willingness to cooperate in forming a coalition government, while isolating the
PVV from power
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW 14
Chapter 3: Operational Risk 17
SWOT Analysis 17
Operational Risk Index 17
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook 19
Global Macro Outlook 19
Tail Risks Mounting Amid Sub-Par Growth19
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS19
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %20
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, 2015 AND 2016 (%) 20
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %21
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS23

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