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Portugal Country Risk Report Q2 016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 25 pages

Core Views Portugal's recovery will remain on track in 2016, with domestic demand being the main driver of growth, mainly boosted by a fiscal stimulus by the government. However, fading tailwinds from the European Central Bank quantitative easing programme, lower oil prices, stagnating external demand and the precarious condition of the banking sector will cap growth at just 1.7% in 2016, and 1.6% in 2017. The victory of centre-right candidate Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in Portugal's presidential election on January 24 will boost the country's political stability outlook. Presenting himself as a moderate consensus-builder, he will serve as a counterweight to the Socialistled minority government in relation to its more radical supporters, the Left Bloc and the Communist Party. Forecast Changes Portuguese real GDP growth came in at 1.3% in Q415, taking the full-year outturn to 1.5%, equal to our estimate. Portugal's rebound from its three-year long recession over 2011-2013 will remain broadly in place in 2016, as reflected in our forecast for a 1.6% full-year expansion of real GDP growth. We retain our subdued growth outlook for the country and have not modified our forecasts for 2016.

Table Of Contents

Portugal Country Risk Report Q2 016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Forecast Changes5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Fragile Recovery On Track8
Portugal's economic recovery will remain on track in 2016, with domestic demand being the main driver of growth However, fading
tailwinds from ECB QE, lower oil prices, stagnating external demand and tight credit market conditions will cap growth at just 17% in
2016, and 16% in 2017
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECAST10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS11
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS11
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast 13
The Portuguese Economy To 2025 13
Crisis An Opportunity To Improve Long-Term Growth13
The near-term outlook for Portugal will be shaped heavily by the measures its government must undertake to corral the fiscal deficit and
bring national debt levels under control However, beyond the immediate term, Portugal will have to grapple with improving its growth
prospects if it is to escape from the debt trap
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS13
Chapter 3: Political Outlook 15
SWOT Analysis 15
BMI Political Risk Index 15
Domestic Politics 16
Centre-Right Presidential Victory Good For Political Stability16
The victory of centre-right candidate Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in Portugal's presidential election on January 24 will boost the country's
political stability outlook Presenting himself as a moderate consensus-builder, he will serve as a counterweight to the Socialist-led
minority government in relation to its more radical supporters, the Left Bloc and the Communist Party
Chapter 4: Operational Risk 19
SWOT Analysis 19
Operational Risk Index 19
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook 21
Global Macro Outlook 21
Tail Risks Mounting Amid Sub-Par Growth21
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS21
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %22
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, 2015 AND 2016 (%) 22
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %23
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS25

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