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Romania Country Risk Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 45 pages

Core Views Romania will be an economic growth outperformer in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in 2016, and the second fastest growing EU economy (behind Ireland). Growth will mainly be driven by household spending, which stands to benefit from public sector wage increases, successive VAT cuts, and improving labour market conditions. Romania’s deflationary trend is supply-side in nature, and we expect the central bank to begin hiking rates in late 2016 or early 2017. Romania’s current account and trade deficits will widen, mainly due to robust domestic demand and imports. Romania’s anti-corruption push will dent trust in politicians in 2016, but will be net positive for the country’s longer-term macroeconomic and political development. Major Forecast Changes While Romania is now one of few EU members still stuck in deflation, we have revised our forecasts for the policy rate to be increased to 2.00% by-end 2016, from a previous 1.75% forecast.

Table Of Contents

Romania Country Risk Report Q2 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Major Forecast Changes5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Growth Will Outperform CEE In 20168
Romania will be the second fastest growing economy in the EU in 2016 Real GDP growth will be driven by robust private consumption,
alongside loose fiscal and monetary policy
GDP By Expenditure Breakdown 10
TABLE: ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECASTS10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS10
TABLE: GOVERMENT EXPENDITURE FORECASTS10
External Trade And Investment Outlook 11
Wages Threaten Export Outlook11
Rapidly rising wages will boost imports and gradually erode Romania's competitive advantage in export-oriented sectors over the next
few years
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS11
TABLE: NET EXPORT FORECASTS11
Outlook On External Position 13
TABLE: TOP 5 EXPORTS13
TABLE: TOP 5 IMPORTS14
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT14
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT15
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook 16
Investors Unconcerned With Budget Plans16
Romania's budget expansion plans are unlikely to unnerve investors given the country's low public debt stock and robust growth
profile Credit risk will decline further relative to Poland, where political risk is undermining the country's position as CEE's investment
outperformer
Structural Fiscal Position 17
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY18
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES19
Monetary Policy 20
Rate Hikes On The Cards20
The Romanian central bank will begin hiking the policy rate by end-2016, despite persistent disinflationary pressures
Monetary Policy Framework 21
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY22
Currency Forecast 23
RON: Short-Term Strength On The Cards23
The Romanian leu will appreciate against the euro over the coming quarters, amid a divergence in the trajectory of Romanian and ECB
monetary policy
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST23
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast 25
The Romanian Economy To 2025 25
Major Untapped Growth Potential25
While Romania will struggle to return to pre-crisis growth rates over the next decade, we believe the country's economy has significant
regional potential We forecast 10-year real average annual growth of 37%, with the country's competitive labour force likely to drive
growth and attract investment over the next few years, despite ongoing political inefficiencies and the modest pace of the eurozone
economic recovery
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS25
Chapter 3: Political Outlook 27
SWOT Analysis 27
BMI Political Risk Index 27
Domestic Politics 28
Further Progress On Corruption In 201628
Romania's anticorruption push could dent trust in politicians and political stability in 2016, but will be net positive for the country's longerterm
macroeconomic and political development
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW28
Long-Term Political Outlook 30
Progress Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty30
The strength and quality of Romani a's political institutions fall short relative to much of Europe, implying significant challenges ahead
despite the progress made since the fall of communism With membership of the euro still looking like a distant prospect, there is a risk
of relative institutional stagnation, which could jeopardise some of the improvements made over the last two decades
Chapter 4: Operational Risk 33
SWOT Analysis 33
Operational Risk Index 33
Operational Risk 34
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK34
Trade Procedures And Governance 35
TABLE: EXPORT AND IMPORT DOCUMENTS35
TABLE: TRADE PROCEDURES BREAKDOWN35
TABLE: EMERGING EUROPE - TRADE PROCEDURES AND GOVERNANCE RISK 36
Vulnerability To Crime 37
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook 41
Global Macro Outlook 41
Tail Risks Mounting Amid Sub-Par Growth41
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS41
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %42
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, 2015 AND 2016 (%) 42
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %43
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS45

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