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Sierra Leone & Liberia Country Risk Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 49 pages

Core Views Real GDP growth in Liberia will come in at 3.2% in 2016, on the back of the post-Ebola recovery, infrastructure investment and some limited growth in iron ore production. The slump in the iron ore price will significantly weigh on growth, pushing back investment plans and reducing exports. Political stability continues to improve as the country recovers from its civil war, although the drawdown of UN forces will test the authorities' capabilities. Core Views We expect that Sierra Leone will begin its economic recovery in 2016, forecasting that the economy will enjoy real GDP growth of 5.7%, following a massive 20.6% contraction in 2015. This will be driven by base effects, the effective end of the Ebola crisis, and a more positive outlook for the iron ore mining sector. The country is enjoying increasing levels of political and social stability, continuing its recovery from its ruinous civil war, although the Ebola outbreak has increased risk of social and political unrest. Violent crime rose as the disease ravaged the country.

Table Of Contents

Sierra Leone and Liberia Country Risk Report Q2 2016
BMI Index 6
BMI Risk Index - Sierra Leone6
BMI Risk Index - Liberia7
Executive Summary - Liberia 11
Core Views11
Key Risks 11
Chapter 11: Economic Outlook - Liberia 13
SWOT Analysis 13
Economic Growth Outlook 14
Real GDP Growth Will Not Hit Pre-Ebola Highs14
Real GDP growth in Liberia will come in at 32% in 2016, on the back of the post-Ebola recovery, infrastructure investment and some
limited growth in iron ore production
TABLE: TOP FIVE PROJECTS, LIBERIA14
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 15
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS16
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS16
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS16
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS17
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS17
Chapter 12: 10-Year Forecast - Liberia 19
The Liberian Economy To 2025 19
Extractive Industries Will Drive Growth19
Our previously bullish long-term outlook for Liberia has been knocked off course by the Ebola outbreak Although growth will still be
robust, it will be slower than anticipated There also remain significant infrastructure challenges
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS19
Chapter 13: Political Outlook - Liberia 23
SWOT Analysis 23
Domestic Politics 24
UNMIL Drawdown Will Present Challenge As Elections Approach24
The UNMIL drawdown prior to the 2017 presidential elections will be a crucial test for Liberian security We do not expect a return to civil
war, but some limited violence during the campaign is likely Tackling corruption will be a key battleground for the candidates
Long-Term Political Outlook 25
Putting The War Behind It25
Liberia will continue on its road towards becoming a stable democracy over the coming decade, steadily recovering from its horrific civil
war However, poverty, inequality and corruption will remain major challenges to stability, and the Ebola crisis threatens to set back
advances
Executive Summary - Sierra Leone 29
Core Views29
Key Risks29
Chapter 21: Economic Outlook - Sierra Leone 31
SWOT Analysis 31
Economic Growth Outlook 32
Growth To Rebound But Below Potential32
We forecast a recovery in Sierra Leone's economic growth in 2016, but we caution that this is in large part due to base effects following
a double-digit contraction last year A pick-up in iron ore production will offer support, but investor sentiment will remain fairly weak
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 33
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS33
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS34
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS34
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS35
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS35
Chapter 22: 10-Year Forecast - Sierra Leone 37
The Sierra Leonean Economy To 2025 37
Ebola After-effects Will Continue To Weigh On Growth37
Our long-term growth forecasts for Sierra Leone have been revised down as a result of the Ebola crisis Delayed investment into
important growth industries such as iron ore mining will weigh on future economic activity
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS37
Chapter 23: Political Outlook - Sierra Leone 41
SWOT Analysis 41
Domestic Politics 42
Corruption Will Dent President's Ambitions42
Political risk in Sierra Leone will increase over the next 18 months as allegations over the misappropriation and misuse of funds for
combating Ebola reflect badly on President Ernest Bai Koroma as he seemingly looks for an unconstitutional extension to his time in
office
Long-Term Political Outlook 43
Stability Will Continue Despite Ebola Upheaval43
Sierra Leone will enjoy increasing political and social stability over the coming decade as it continues to recover from its civil war
Nevertheless, poverty and economic inequality will remain key challenges, and the Ebola outbreak threatens to set back recent gains
Chapter 3: BMI Global Macro Outlook 45
Global Macro Outlook 45
Tail Risks Mounting Amid Sub-Par Growth45
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS45
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %46
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, 2015 AND 2016 (%) 46
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %47
TABLE: LIBERIA - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS49
TABLE: SIERRA LEONE - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS49

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