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Slovenia Country Risk Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 37 pages

Core Views The short-term economic outlook has improved in light of accelerating regional economic activity and a slight rebound in domestic demand. The corporate sector remains overleveraged and will remain a major risk to the banking sector – unless ultimately some form of restructuring takes place, whether on the loans itself to reduce debt servicing costs, or through cost-cutting (shedding jobs/trimming investment). Major Forecast Changes We have revised our 2016 current account surplus forecast from 7.3% to 7.9% as a result of our Oil & Gas team's recent downgrades to the Brent crude price forecast. We forecast Brent crude to average USD40.0/bbl in 2016, from USD53.6/bbl in 2015, which we estimate will result in a net saving of around EUR270mn.

Table Of Contents

Slovenia Country Risk Report Q2 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Major Forecast Changes5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Growth To Remain Dependent On External Demand8
Slovenian real GDP growth should maintain its momentum in 2016 The recovery will remain heavily dependent on external demand as
the primary driver of growth but a gradual recovery in household consumption may develop too
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS9
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS10
External Trade And Investment 11
Oil To Further Boost Trade Surplus11
Falling oil prices will help to increase Slovenia's already large current account surplus Although the surplus in part reflects the weak
state of domestic demand, it will help to reduce the large negative net international position accrued across the last decade
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT11
Outlook On External Position 12
TABLE: TOP 5 IMPORTS and EXPORTS12
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE12
Monetary Policy 14
Energy Prices Will Stoke Deflationary Pressure14
Although deflationary pressure will prevail throughout the first half of 2016 due to low global oil prices, we remain relatively sanguine
towards the medium-term inflation outlook
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY15
Monetary Policy Framework 15
Fiscal And Public Debt Outlook 15
Debt Load Vulnerable To Weak Growth15
A sustained period of fiscal consolidation lies ahead as the Slovenian authorities attempt to place the public debt level on a more
sustainable trajectory
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY16
Structural Fiscal Position 17
TABLE: GOVERNMENT REVENUE/SPENDING SOURCES17
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast 19
The Slovenian Economy To 2025 19
Convergence To Slow Markedly19
We expect Slovenia's real macroeconomic convergence with the Western European developed states to continue through our 10-year
forecast period, though at a far reduced pace to the decade leading up to 2007 While continued capital market and trade integration
with the eurozone following the adoption of the euro in 2007 will remain a core factor underpinning productivity gains, we caution that
reduced foreign capital flows resulting from the 2008-2009 financial crisis and domestic banking sector woes will stem trend growth over
the long term
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS19
Chapter 3: Political Outlook 21
SWOT Analysis 21
BMI Political Risk Index 21
Domestic Politics 22
Migrant Crisis Remains At Forefront Of Political Agenda22
We have downgraded Slovenia's Short-Term Political Risk score as the regional profile has deteriorated slightly The European
migrant crisis will remain at the forefront of the political agenda for the foreseeable future, although the absence of popular support for
eurosceptic or nationalist parties suggests that the country's political environment is at a lower risk of extremism compared to other
countries
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW22
Long-Term Political Outlook 23
Tepid Economic Outlook A Test For Stability23
Although the EU will remain a policy anchor for Slovenia over the long term, massive economic pressures will be a major test for the
country's political institutions A structural shift in policy and/or governing institutions is unlikely, though we caution that failure to develop
a long-term growth model will raise challenges to governance, potentially exacerbating political party divisions
Chapter 4: Operational Risk 25
SWOT Analysis 25
Operational Risk Index 25
Operational Risk 26
Trade Procedures And Governance 27
TABLE: EMERGING EUROPE - TRADE PROCEDURES AND GOVERNANCE RISKS 27
TABLE: IMPORT AND EXPORT DOCUMENT REQUIREMENTS 28
TABLE: TRADE PROCEDURES BREAKDOWN 28
Vulnerability To Crime 28
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook 33
Global Macro Outlook 33
Tail Risks Mounting Amid Sub-Par Growth33
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS33
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %34
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, 2015 AND 2016 (%) 34
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %35
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS37

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