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Tanzania Country Risk Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 39 pages

Core Views A broad improvement in macroeconomic conditions will see real GDP growth in Tanzania accelerate in 2016. Following an estimated 6.0% expansion in 2015, we forecast growth of 6.5% this year as the economy benefits from improved currency stability, a post-election bounce in investment and low oil prices. The Tanzanian shilling will experience a much less rapid pace of depreciation in 2016 than in 2015 as it benefits from a weaker US dollar, positive balance of payments dynamics and improved local sentiment. Having depreciated by an average of 22.4% against the dollar last year, we forecast average depreciation in 2016 of just below 8.0%. Since being sworn in almost three months ago, new Tanzanian President John Magufuli has made impressive and publicly-visible efforts aimed at tackling corruption and government waste, reinforcing his reputation as a hard-working technocrat. While the Magufuli presidency is still in its infancy, the early signs are encouraging and, if sustained, bode well for the country’s relationship with its donor partners following a fractious 18-month period.

Table Of Contents

Tanzania Country Risk Report Q2 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Growth Accelerating In 20168
Economic growth in Tanzania will accelerate in 2016 due to improved currency stability, post-election investment, and low oil prices
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS9
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS10
Monetary Policy 10
External Risks Will Keep Monetary Conditions Tight Through H11610
Despite the improved outlook for the currency, monetary conditions are set to remain tight through the first half of the year given external
risks and above target inflation
Monetary Policy Framework 11
Currency Forecast 12
TZS: Conditions More Supportive In 201612
The Tanzanian shilling will experience a much less rapid pace of depreciation in 2016 than in 2015 as it benefits from a weaker US
dollar, positive balance of payments dynamics and improved local sentiment
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST12
Regional Fiscal 14
The Future Of African Bond Issuance14
Sub-Saharan African Eurobond issuance is becoming increasingly expensive We identify two implications therefrom One is that local
currency debt issuance is likely to rise and the local debt markets will develop, as in Nigeria and Kenya Meanwhile, eurobond markets
will become more selective and reward those countries whose macroeconomic frameworks are stable, especially in West Africa
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast 17
The Tanzanian Economy To 2025 17
High Growth Hinges On Gas Investment17
We are forecasting a period of robust growth in the Tanzanian economy in the years ahead, as the country looks set to benefit from
its nascent offshore gas sector, and the investment being pumped in to the country to develop this Increasing regional integration and
significant investment in infrastructure projects will also boost growth The county remains beholden to the weather, however, through
the importance of its agricultural sector and dependence on hydroelectricity, and this presents the greatest risk to our forecasts
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS17
Chapter 3: Political Outlook 21
SWOT Analysis 21
BMI Political Risk Index 21
Domestic Politics 22
Zanzibar Poll Re-Run Could Shorten Magufuli Honeymoon22
John Magufuli has made a bright start to his presidency, making impressive early strides to address the country's endemic corruption
problems That said, a politically charged re-run of Zanzibar's October election is a significant cloud on the near term horizon
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW 22
Long-Term Political Outlook 23
Corruption And Reliance On Foreign Money High On The Agenda23
Tanzania will continue to enjoy broad political stability over the coming decade, with little to suggest that the ruling Chama Cha
Mapinduzi party's authority will be threatened That is not to say the 2015-2023 period will be without challenges Chief among these will
be dealing with high levels of corruption and addressing the country's dependence on foreign aid
Chapter 4: Operational Risk 27
SWOT Analysis 27
Operational Risk Index 27
Operational Risk 28
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK28
Trade Procedures And Governance 29
TABLE: IMPORT AND EXPORT DOCUMENTS29
TABLE: TRADE PROCEDURES BREAKDOWN29
TABLE: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA - TRADE PROCEDURES AND GOVERNANCE RISK 30
Vulnerability To Crime 31
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook 35
Global Macro Outlook 35
Tail Risks Mounting Amid Sub-Par Growth35
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS 35
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %36
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, 2015 AND 2016 (%) 36
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %37
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS39

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