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  5. > East Timor Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

East Timor Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 64 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Timor-Leste is set to experience declining crude oil and natural gas production over the nextdecade as its two producing fields remain in decline. Additionally, the small domestic market size makes ituneconomical to build a refinery in the country, which will result in rising refined fuels imports over thecoming years.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

- We maintain our exploration outlook this quarter, with limited upside risk to exploration given limitedactivities in the Timor-Leste Exclusive Area (TLEA) and the current stand-off between Australia andTimor-Leste regarding the territorial arrangements in the area.

- Timor-Leste's crude oil production will remain on a gradual decline through our forecast period to 2025.A slowdown in exploration in the Joint Petroleum Development Area (JPDA) and territorial dispute overthe highly prospective Greater Sunrise fields weighs on the country's long-term oil production potential.

- Timor-Leste's natural gas production is set to fall by 31.5% over the next 10 years, as natural declinesoutpace efforts to sustain production at the existing field. Commercialisation of resources at the GreaterSunrise fields poses a limited upside risk to our forecasts, though development remains in a stalemateowing to major disputes with Australia and several international firms.

- We forecast refined products consumption to grow over the next decade on the back of a fast-growingeconomy - rising from 1,610b/d in 2015 to 2,930b/d in 2025.

- Crude oil net exports will decline throughout our forecast period, in line with production declines. Weforecast Timor-Leste's refined fuels imports to remain on an uptrend over the next decade to meetgrowing domestic demand for gasoline and diesel from the power and the autos sectors.

Table Of Contents

East Timor Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Timor-Leste 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 12
Table: Timor-Leste Major Upstream Projects 12
Upstream Production - Oil 14
Latest Updates 14
Structural Trends 14
Table: Exploration Activities In The JPDA 16
Table: Oil Production (Timor-Leste 2014-2019) 17
Table: Oil Production (Timor-Leste 2020-2025) 17
Upstream Production - Gas 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Gas Production (Timor-Leste 2014-2019) 21
Table: Gas Production (Timor-Leste 2020-2025) 21
Refined Fuels Consumption 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends 22
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Timor-Leste 2014-2019) 23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Timor-Leste 2020-2025) 23
Trade - Oil 24
Crude Oil Trade Forecast 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Timor-Leste 2014-2020) 26
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Timor-Leste 2020-2025) 26
Refined Fuels Trade Forecasts 26
Latest Updates 26
Structural Trends 26
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Timor-Leste 2014-2019) 29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Timor-Leste 2020-2025) 29
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Gas Net Exports (Timor-Leste 2014-2019) 30
Table: Gas Net Exports (Timor-Leste 2020-2025) 31
Industry Risk/Reward Index 32
Asia - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 32
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Persistent Oil Price Weakness Underpins Bearish Outlook 33
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index 33
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Projection For Weaker Economic Growth Undermines India's Scores 36
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index 36
Timor-Leste - Risk/Reward Index 38
Upstream Index 38
Downstream Index 38
Market Overview 40
Timor-Leste Energy Market Overview 40
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 41
Competitive Landscape 43
Company Profile 44
ConocoPhillips 44
Eni 46
Other Summaries 48
Regional Overview 49
Industry Trend Analysis 49
Glossary 57
Table: Glossary Of Terms 57
Methodology 59
Industry Forecast Methodology 59
Source 61
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 61
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 63
Table: Weighting 64

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