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Yemen Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 67 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The ongoing civil war has put Yemen's oil and gas industry to a standstill, as the majority of oiland gas companies and facilities suspended their operations due to security concerns. We expect abovegroundrisks to continue to impact near-term production and challenge longer term efforts to boostinvestment.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

- In February 2016, Australia's Petsec Energy acquired 100% participating interest in, and operatorship of,the Damis Production License in the Republic of Yemen's Block S-1. The Damis PL holds five oil andgas discoveries and a further four undeveloped oil and gas fields. Prior to its suspension in 2014, the AnNagyah oil field within the block produced 25mn barrels of oil since 2004 from 25 wells, reaching a peakoil rate of 12,716b/d (Rigzone).

- In January 2016, a blast has hit pipelines connecting oil storage tanks with the refinery in the city ofAden. No damage to the refinery itself was reported.

- During 2015, virtually all international oil and gas companies suspended their oil and gas explorationactivities on account of unstable political and security environment in the country. We believe thatpolitical and security risks will remain the major factors limiting Yemen's underground potential, and weforecast the country's oil and gas reserves will decline by 13% and 1.7% respectively across out forecastperiod to 2025.- Yemen's oil production is forecast to decline from an estimated 122,500b/d in 2015 to 93,160b/d by2025, but we note a significant downside risk to these projections arising from the ongoing civil war.- Yemen's gas production collapsed in 2015 due to the closure of the major production facility - YemenLNG. The estimated gas output of just 0.8bcm in 2015 (down from 7.8bcm in 2014) was exclusivelydirected to satisfy domestic needs. We do not see greater gas production in Yemen until the civil warsubsides.

Table Of Contents

Yemen Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Yemen 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Oil and Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 12
Table: Key Upstream Projects 12
Upstream Production - Oil 14
Latest Updates 14
Structural Trends 14
Table: Oil Production (Yemen 2014-2019) 16
Table: Oil Production (Yemen 2020-2025) 16
Upstream Production - Gas 17
Latest Updates 17
Structural Trends 17
Table: Gas Production (Yemen 2014-2019) 18
Table: Gas Production (Yemen 2020-2025) 19
Refining 20
Latest Updates 20
Structural Trends 20
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Yemen 2014-2019) 21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Yemen 2020-2025) 22
Refined Fuels Consumption 23
Latest Updates 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Yemen 2014-2019) 24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Yemen 2020-2025) 25
Gas Consumption 26
Latest Updates 26
Structural Trends 26
Table: Gas Consumption (Yemen 2014-2019) 27
Table: Gas Consumption (Yemen 2020-2025) 27
Trade - Oil 28
Crude Oil Trade 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Yemen 2014-2020) 29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Yemen 2020-2025) 30
Fuels Trade 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Yemen 2014-2019) 31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Yemen 2020-2025) 32
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Yemen 2014-2019) 35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Yemen 2020-2025) 36
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 37
Middle East - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 37
Table: Middle East Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 37
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment 38
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 38
Downstream: Limited Opportunities 40
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 40
Yemen - Risk/Reward Index 43
Market Overview 44
Yemen Energy Market Overview 44
Regulatory Structure 44
Fiscal Regime 45
Table: Yemen - Upstream Tax Regime 45
Licensing Regime 45
Table: Yemen - Contracts and Licensing Regime 45
Licensing Rounds 45
Table: Yemen's 2013 Acreage Offer 46
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 47
Oil Refineries 47
Table: Oil Refineries In Yemen 47
Oil Pipelines 48
Oil Terminal 48
LNG Terminal 48
Regional Overview 50
Middle East Oil And Gas Regional Overview 50
Oil Production: Weak Prices Have Limited Impact On Growth 50
Oil Consumption: Gradual Subsidy Reform To Temper Demand Growth 52
Refining Capacity: 2mn b/d Of New Capacity By 2020 54
Gas Production: Low Oil Prices Hinder Gas Progress 55
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand 57
Table: Middle East - Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade (2013-2024) 58
Glossary 60
Table: Glossary Of Terms 60
Methodology 62
Industry Forecast Methodology 62
Source 64
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 64
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 66
Table: Weighting 67

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