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France Retail Report Q2 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 60 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The French economy will continue to gradually recover, with a GDP growth forecast for 2016of 1.4%, which is beginning to improve in performance in the context of the broader EU. Retailers willcontinue to be attracted to the countries large, expanding, highly urbanised and developed retail market,that has the added advantage of servicing a large foreign tourist market. The positive attributes, however,will have a modest effect of igniting domestic consumption and business investment, sustaining marginexpansion in employment and household income growth. While the growth forecast is set to improve longerterm,over the short-term this will have a limiting effect on organic growth opportunities. Consequently, themarket will see higher levels of consolidation and optimisation, with a greater focus on discount retailersgoing forward.

Key Views & Developments

- The French e-commerce sector accelerated growth to 10.5% in 2015 to reach EUR31bn. Dutch non-fooddiscount retailer Action has built eight warehouses thought-out France in order to improve service and to distribute to 100 of its local stores. The project is expected to see an additional EUR100mn investmentand create over 1000 jobs.

- Carrefour has announced a strong improvement in net sales by 3.0% to EUR76.9bn on a organic basisand a EUR4.5bn reduction in debt.

- Leading French MGR chains are joining forces to gain leverage in price negotiations through buyingpartnerships. Auchan and Metro Group upgraded their agreement to cover negotiations at a local level.Similarly, Louis Delhaize and Carrefour entered a partnership in September 2015 to cover most ofproduct categories on offer.

- Car sales are growing healthily in France: retail sales expanded by 5.9% y-o-y in the first eight months of2015.

- Total household spending will recover modestly in 2016 in both USD and EUR terms to USD1.327bnand EUR1,240 respectively.

- Housing and utilities will continue to be the largest item on the household budget, in spite of cheapelectricity prices, accounting for 25.8% of spending and USD320bn.

- Net income per household will constitute USD51,846 and per capita income to USD36,743 in 2016.

- Unemployment will remain high, with around 2.98mn jobless people in 2016.

- The population will rise to almost 64.6mn in 2016, of which only 2.2% will fall below the poverty line.

Table Of Contents

France Retail Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Retail SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Headline Retail Forecast 11
Table: Total Household Spending (France 2013-2020) 12
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (France 2013-2020) 13
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (France 2013-2020) 15
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (France 2013-2020) 16
Retail Sector Forecast 18
Food, Drink and Tobacco 19
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (France 2013-2020) 19
Clothing And Footwear 20
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (France 2013-2020) 20
Household Goods 21
Table: Household Goods Spending (France 2013-2020) 21
Table: Consumer Electronics Spending (France 2013-2020) 22
Personal Care 23
Table: Personal Care Spending (France 2013-2020) 24
Household Numbers and Income Forecast 25
Table: Household Income Data (France 2013-2020) 26
Table: Labour Market Data (France 2013-2020) 29
Demographic Forecast 30
Table: Total Population (France 2013-2020) 32
Table: Population: Babies (France 2013-2020) 32
Table: Population: Young Children (France 2013-2020) 32
Table: Population: Children (France 2013-2020) 33
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (France 2013-2020) 33
Table: Population: Young People (France 2013-2020) 33
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (France 2013-2020) 34
Table: Population: 21yrs + (France 2013-2020) 34
Table: Population: Young Adults (France 2013-2020) 34
Table: Population: Middle Aged (France 2013-2020) 35
Table: Population: Urban (France 2013-2020) 35
Industry Risk/Reward Index 36
Developed States Risk/Reward Index 36
Table: Developed States Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q216 36
France - Risk/Reward Index 37
Rewards 37
Risks 38
Market Overview 40
Competitive Landscape 43
Clothing and Footwear 43
Table: Selected Clothing and Footwear Retailers 43
Household Goods 44
Table: Selected Household Goods Retailers 44
Electronics 45
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers 45
Department Stores 45
Table: Selected Department Stores 45
E-commerce 46
Table: Selected E-Commerce Retailers 46
Pharmacies 46
Table: Selected Pharmaceutical Retailers 46
Glossary 47
Methodology 54
Industry Forecast Methodology 54
Sources 57
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 57
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 58
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 60

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