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Turkmenistan Infrastructure Report Q2 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 32 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The small Turkmen construction market will be driven by continued government spending andincreasing investment in the country's key gas infrastructure, along with major inter-regional gas and railinterconnectivity projects. However, key risks to our forecasts are falling gas demand from China andRussia, increasing macroeconomic pressures and an uncompetitive business and investment environment.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- Construction industry growth will slow slightly in 2016 to 7.6% from 8.3% in 2015 and 9.6% in 2014 dueto economic headwinds related to falling gas revenues. However, our 10-year forecast sees averageannual growth of 7.8% and a value of TMT44.5bn (USD10.0bn) in 2025.

- The key sectors for development will be those related to trade and the transit of goods, so we expecttransport, especially rail, along with energy, particularly gas production and transmission (pipelines), toremain the key investment areas.

- Construction on the long-awaited USD10bn Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipelineproject began in December 2015, with Türkmengaz the construction lead.- While GDP growth will remain solid (6.5% in 2016 and 7.0% in 2017), as to be expected from anemerging economy, we see growth slowing over the next decade, but at a pace unlikely to spur thegovernment into economic diversification, which we view as essential to maintain infrastructurespending.

Table Of Contents

Turkmenistan Infrastructure Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 5
Latest Updates And Structural Trends 5
Table: Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2015-2021) 5
Table: Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (Turkmenistan) 6
SWOT 7
Industry Forecast 9
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 9
Latest Updates 9
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Turkmenistan 2015-2025) 9
Structural Trends 9
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 17
Industry Risk Reward Index 17
Europe - CEE Infrastructure RRI: Heightened Risks Belie Growing Rewards 19
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 24
Methodology 25
Industry Forecast Methodology 25
Sector-Specific Methodology 26
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 30
Sector-Specific Methodology 31
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 31
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 32

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