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Black Swan Events—9 Outrageous Predictions for 2016 and their Impact on Top Pump Companies : Can Oil Hit Big and the US Economy Flounder? If So, How will it Impact Pump Companies?
In 2015, the price of crude oil, which was expected to stay above $100 per barrel for the next 5 years, nose-dived and is currently trading around $30 a barrel. This year, Donald Trump, who was dismissed as a complete outsider and someone who would not even stay in the race for US President, is a leading candidate. Although there are ample examples of volatility and unknown risks like the above, companies are still trying to apply existing forecasting analyses to develop short-term strategies. Caught in herd mentality, pump manufacturers often fail to see major events and get caught in reactionary mode. This research analyses 9 such extreme events and their possible impact on pump manufacturers.
Crude oil, which was expected to stay above $ per barrel for the next 5 years, is currently trading around $ a barrel. Meanwhile, Donald Trump, who was dismissed as a complete outsider and someone who would not stay in the race for the US Presidential election, is now a leading candidate.
- Although there are ample examples of volatility and unknown risks like the above, companies are still trying to apply existing forecasting analyses to develop short-term strategies.
- Nassim Taleb, author of “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable,” has pointed out the failure in current forecasting analyses. He terms events like these as “Black Swan Events” that follow 3 major attributes: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective predictability.
- While most pump manufacturers forecast based on the assumption of expecting “more of the same,” anything but “the same” has occurred. This study looks at such extreme events and their possible impact on pump manufacturers.
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