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Germany Power Report Q1 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 80 pages

BMI View: Germany will not diverge from its renewable-focused energy policy trajectory - meaning thermal capacity will continue to be squeezed out of the market due to low wholesale electricity prices and unattractive margins. We expect more financial pain for utilities like E.ON and RWE, while uncertainty over who will shoulder the vast cost of decommissioning existing nuclear capacity will ensure the energy transition remains highly politicised.

-Germany will continue to register rapid growth in renewable-based electricity generation and we reiterate that the current coalition government will not diverge from Energiewende (energy transition). This means that Germany will retain its position as a global renewables powerhouse but will continue to grapple with the cost of the Energiewende to the German economy - with the cost of the renewable energy surcharge that is levied on consumer bills for 2016 estimated to rise 3% y-o-y and hit a record level of 6.354 euro cent/KWh.

-The government will also have to address structural problems in the utilities sector that pose an existential threat to RWE and E.ON, which have seen their traditional thermal assets marginalised as a result of the huge influx of intermittent renewable and a subsequent collapse in wholesale electricity prices. RWE is the latest utility to respond to problems in the thermal sector, announcing that it will hive off its renewables, grids and retail units into a separate entity and sell a 10% stake in an IPO in 2016.

Table Of Contents

Germany Power Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Germany 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 9
Germany Snapshot 9
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Germany 2014-2019) 9
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Germany 2019-2024) 9
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 9
Germany Power Forecast Scenario 10
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 10
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Germany 2013-2018) 27
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Germany 2019-2024) 27
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Germany 2013-2018) 28
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Germany 2019-2024) 29
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Germany 2013-2018) 31
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Germany 2019-2024) 32
Transmission and Distribution, Imports and Exports 32
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Germany 2013-2018) 34
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Germany 2019-2024) 34
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Germany 2013-2018) 34
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Germany 2019-2024) 34
Industry Risk/Reward Index 35
Europe - NAWE Power RRI: US Outperforms Tepid European Power Markets 35
Germany Power Risk/Reward Index 41
Rewards 41
Risks 42
Market Overview 43
Key Policies And Market Structure 43
Regulation And Competition 43
Sustainable Energy Policies 44
Germany Power Projects Database 47
Table: Germany Major Projects - Power 47
Competitive Landscape 50
EON 50
RWE 50
EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG (EnBW) 51
Vattenfall 51
Verbund 52
Company Profile 53
RWE 53
EON 58
Regional Overview 68
NAWE Power Regional Overview 68
Glossary 74
Table: Glossary Of Terms 74
Methodology 75
Methodology And Sources 75
Industry Forecast Methodology 75
Sources 78
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 78
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 79
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 80

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