Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts

  • April 2013
  • -
  • Navigant Research
  • -
  • 32 pages

Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Forecasts for North America and Select European and Asia Pacific Cities by State/Province, Metropolitan Area, City, and Selected Utility Service Territories

To date, North America is the strongest market for light duty (LD) plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), with nearly 100,000 sold in 2013. Japan is a distant second, with just under 30,000 sales, followed by the Netherlands (over 23,000) and China (over 17,000). Navigant Research expects that the United States will be the largest market for PEVs during the next 10 years, with LD PEV sales exceeding 514,000 in 2023.
The top cities for LD PEV sales among all of the regions examined in this report are expected to be Los Angeles, Paris, and Tokyo. Cities with higher densities will likely see greater interest in incentivizing PEV purchases, optimizing PEV charging, and developing publicly available EV supply equipment (EVSE) infrastructure. The overall growth of LD PEV sales will be considerable throughout the world over the next decade. Navigant Research forecasts that the global LD PEV market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.6% while the global market for LD vehicles will grow at a CAGR of only 2.6%. How and where PEVs are bought will affect grid distribution systems and utility business models since Navigant Research estimates PEVs increase residential customer load by 33% to 37%.

This Navigant Research report provides data and forecasts for LD PEV sales in U.S. states, metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), and utility service territories; Canadian provinces and cities; and 10 major metropolitan areas in Europe and Asia Pacific. The study estimates the number of vehicles that will be in use in specific geographic locations and assesses the potential impacts of anticipated PEV penetration in the most active PEV markets. Market forecasts for LD PEV sales and parcs for each geographic region covered extend through 2023. The study also provides penetration data and forecasts on the number of vehicles in use by technology, as well as analyses of major trends in the forecasts.

Key Questions Addressed:

Which states, provinces, and cities in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific have the greatest affinity toward electric vehicle (EV) ownership?
What are the typical PEV owner demographics in the United States and Canada?
Which metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and cities have demographic profiles that match the typical PEV owner demographics in the United States and Canada?
What is the projected size of the global PEV market over the next 10 years and where will sales grow the fastest?
How many vehicles will electric utilities have to prepare for in the future?
What are the largest metropolitan markets for PEVs outside of the United States?
How do fuel costs affect the regional markets for PEVs?

Who needs this report?

Automobile OEM marketing managers
Vehicle aftermarket and service management
Tier One supplier marketing managers
EV charging equipment marketing managers
Electric utility management
State, province, and city urban planners
EV advocacy groups
Investor community

Table Of Contents

1. Executive Summary
1.1 Background Data
1.2 Market Forecasts
2. Background Data
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Population and Demographics
2.2.1 U.S. Demographics
2.2.2 Canadian Demographics
2.3 PEV Attitudes in the United States
2.4 Vehicle and Infrastructure Availability
2.5 PEV ROI
3. Market Forecasts
3.1 Methodology
3.2 Regional PEV Markets
3.3 North America
3.3.1 PEV Sales by State
3.3.2 PEV Sales by MSA
3.3.3 PEV Parc by Selected Utility Service Area
3.3.4 PEV Sales by Province
3.3.5 PEV Sales by City
3.4 Europe
3.5 Asia Pacific
3.6 Conclusions
4. Company Directory
5. Acronym and Abbreviation List
6. Table of Contents
7. Table of Charts and Figures
8. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

Annual LD PEV Sales by Top Metropolitan Area per Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Parc by Top Metropolitan Area per Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
Index of Positive Opinion toward PEVs by State, United States: 2013
Fuel Costs per Mile by Fuel, Select Regions: 2014
Annual LD PEV Sales by Major Global Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Sales as a Percentage of Total LD Vehicle Sales, United States: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Sales as a Percentage of Total LD Vehicle Sales, Canada: 2014-2023
LD PEV Sales by Top 10 States, United States: 2014, 2023
LD PEV Sales as a Percentage of LD Vehicle Sales by Top 25 States, United States: 2023
Annual LD PEV Parc by Top Five Utility Service Areas, United States: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Sales by Top Seven Provinces, Canada: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Sales by Top Nine Cities, Canada: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Parc by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Parc by Select Metropolitan Area, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Sales by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Sales Market Share by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Parc Market Share by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Sales by Select Metropolitan Area, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Sales Market Share by Select Metropolitan Area, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Parc Market Share by Select Metropolitan Area, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023

List of Tables

Cumulative Demand Charge Avoidance Return on Investment for V2B Infrastructure
Geographic Areas for Forecasts
PEV Demographic Profile
Index of Demographic Similarities between Metropolitan Statistical Areas and National PEV Profile by Top 10 MSAs, United States: 2010
Index of Demographic Similarities between Cities and National PEV Profile by Top Seven Cities, Canada: 2010
Total Population and Number of Households by State, United States: 2013
Total Population by 100 Largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas, United States: 2012
Total Population and Households by Selected Utility Service Area, United States: 2011
Total Population by Province, Canada: 2013
Total Population by Select City, Canada: 2012
Total Population by Select City, Europe: 2012
Total Population by Select City, Asia Pacific: 2012
Annual Gasoline Pump Prices by State, United States: 2014-2023
Annual Residential Electricity Prices for EV Charging Services by State, United States: 2014-2023
Annual Gasoline Pump Prices by Province, Canada: 2014-2023
Annual Residential Electricity Prices by Province, Canada: 2014-2023
Annual Diesel Pump Prices by Country, Europe: 2014-2023
Annual Residential Electricity Prices by Country, Europe: 2014-2023
Annual Gasoline Pump Prices by Country, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
Annual Residential Electricity Prices by Country, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Sales by Major Global Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
Annual LD Vehicle Sales by State, United States: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Sales by State, United States: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Sales as a Percentage of Total LD Vehicle Sales by State, United States: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Parc by State, United States: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Sales by Top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, United States: 2014-2023
Annual Ratio of LD PEV Sales to Population by Top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, United States: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Parc by Top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, United States: 2014-2023
Annual Percentage of Total LD PEVs by Top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, United States: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Sales by Selected Utility Service Area, United States: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Parc by Selected Utility Service Area, United States: 2014-2023
Annual LD Vehicle Sales by Province, Canada: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Sales by Province, Canada: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Sales as a Percentage of Total LD Vehicle Sales by Province, Canada: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Parc by Province, Canada: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Sales by Top Nine Cities, Canada: 2014-2023
Annual City LD PEV Sales as Percentage of Province PEV Sales, Canada: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Parc by Top Nine Cities, Canada: 2014-2023
Annual LD Vehicle Sales by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Sales by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Sales as Percentage of LD Vehicle Sales by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
Annual LD Vehicle Parc by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Parc by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Parc Percentage of Fleet by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
Annual LD Vehicle Sales by Select City, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Sales by Select City, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Sales as Percentage of LDV Sales by Select City, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
Annual LD Vehicle Parc by Select City, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Parc by Select City, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
Annual LD PEV Parc Percentage of Select City Fleet, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023

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