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Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts

  • May 2015
  • -
  • Navigant Research
  • -
  • 35 pages

Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Forecasts for North America by State/Province, Metropolitan Area, City, and Selected Utility Service Territory

To date, North America is the strongest market for light duty (LD) plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), with more than 133,000 sold in 2014. Overall, the United States is expected to be the largest market throughout the forecast period, with annual PEV sales in 2024 exceeding 860,000 in the conservative scenario and 1.2 million in the aggressive. Annual sales in Canada, which is about 1 year behind the United States in terms of vehicle availability, are expected to reach over 74,000 PEVs in the conservative scenario and over 91,000 in the aggressive by 2024.
Currently, PEV sales are concentrated in California, where the vehicles already account for over 3% of the state’s total LD vehicle market. State incentives, alongside the mandates of the California Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Program, will likely continue to push PEV penetrations in the state to between 15% and 22% by 2024. Other ZEV Program participating states are expected to see similar growth. Outside of the ZEV states, PEV sales will grow most quickly in states with large vehicle markets, high PEV incentives, well-developed infrastructure, and a high PEV index.
This Navigant Research report provides data and forecasts for LD PEV sales in North America, including U.S. states, metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), and utility service territories and Canadian provinces and cities. The study estimates the number of vehicles that will be in use in specific geographic locations and assesses the potential impacts of anticipated PEV penetration in the most active PEV markets. Market forecasts for LD PEV sales and vehicles in use, segmented by scenario and geographic area, extend through 2024. The study also provides analysis of Navigant Research’s EV Consumer Survey, which was used to develop the PEV demographic profile.

Key Questions Addressed:
-Which states, provinces, and cities in North America are most likely to have the largest penetration of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs)?
-Which metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and cities have demographic profiles that match the typical PEV owner demographics in the United States and Canada?
-What is the projected size of the North American PEV market over the next 10 years and where will sales grow the fastest?
-How many vehicles will electric utilities have to prepare for in the future?
-What are the vehicle style preferences of PEV prospects?
-What are the anticipated vehicle purchase costs of PEV prospects?

Who needs this report?

-Automobile OEM marketing managers
-Vehicle aftermarket and service management
-Tier One supplier marketing managers
-Electric vehicle (EV) charging equipment marketing managers
-Electric utility management
-State, province, and city urban planners
-EV advocacy groups
-Investor community

Table Of Contents

Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts
Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
1.1  Background Data
1.2  Market Forecasts

2. Background Data    
2.1  Introduction
2.2  Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey
2.2.1  Positive PEV Responses
   2.2.1.1  PEV Profile
   2.2.1.2  PEV Preferences
2.2.2  PEV Challenges
2.3  PEV Index
2.4  Vehicle Availability
2.4.1  National Incentives
2.4.2  State Incentives
2.4.3  Local Incentives
2.5  PEV Return on Investment

3. Market Forecasts    
3.1  Methodology
3.2  North America
3.2.1  United States
3.2.2  Canada
3.2.3  PEV Sales by State
3.2.4  PEV Sales by MSA
3.2.5  PEVs in Use by Selected Utility Service Area
3.2.6  PEV Sales by Province
3.2.7  PEV Sales by City
3.3  Conclusions

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List

5. Table of Contents

6. Table of Charts and Figures

7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

PEV Sales by Major Market, North America: 2015
Geographic Distribution of Respondents, Top 15 MSAs, United States: 2015
Preferred Engine Choice in Next Vehicle Purchase, Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey, United States: 2015
PEV Demographic Profile against Uninterested PEV Demographic Profile by Factor, Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey: 2015
Preferred Engine Choice in Next Vehicle Purchase, Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey, United States: 2015
Anticipated Next Vehicle Purchase Cost by Engine Choice Preference, Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey, United States: 2015
Preferred PEV Brands of PEV Engine Choice Respondents vs. Other Respondents, Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey, United States: 2015
Primary Drawback to PEV Ownership, Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey, United States: 2015
Primary Drawback to PEV Purchase by PEV Respondents vs. Other Respondents, Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey, United States: 2015
PEV Sales by ZEV States and Non-ZEV States, Base Scenario, United States: 2015-2024
Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey Respondent Geographic Distribution by State, United States: 2015
LD PEV Sales by Scenario, United States: 2015-2024
LD PEV Sales by Scenario, Canada: 2015-2024
PEV Sales by Top 10 States, United States: 2015 and 2024
PEV Market Share by Top 10 States, United States: 2015 and 2024
PEVs in Use by Utility Service Area and Scenario, United States: 2024
PEV Sales by Top Four Provinces, Base Scenario, Canada: 2015-2024
LD PEVs in Use by Scenario, United States: 2015-2024
LD PEVs in Use by Scenario, Canada: 2015-2024

List of Tables

Connected Vehicle Regulations by Region, World Markets: 2015
Geographic Areas for Forecasts
Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey Respondent Demographics, United States: 2015
Index of Demographic Similarities between Metropolitan Statistical Areas and National PEV Profile by Top 10 MSAs, United States: 2015
Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey Respondent Geographic Distribution by State, United States: 2015
Geographic Distribution of Respondents by Top 15 MSAs, United States: 2015
PEV Demographic Profile
Uninterested PEV Demographic Profile
Index of Demographic Similarities between Cities and National PEV Profile by Top Seven Cities, Canada: 2015
Primary Drawback to PEV Ownership, Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey, United States: 2015
Gasoline Pump Prices by Province, Canada: 2015-2024
Preferred Engine Choice in Next Vehicle Purchase, Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey, United States: 2015
Preferred Body Style of PEV Engine Choice Respondents vs. Other Respondents, Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey, United States: 2015
Anticipated Total Price After Incentives for Next Vehicle Purchase of PEV Engine Choice Respondents vs. Other Respondents, Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey, United States: 2015
Preferred PEV Brands of PEV Engine Choice Respondents vs. Other Respondents, Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey, United States: 2015
Primary Drawback to PEV Purchase by PEV Respondents vs. Other Respondents, Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey, United States: 2015
Li-Ion Battery Cell Prices by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
Li-Ion Battery Energy Density by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
Oil Prices by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
Gasoline Pump Prices by State, Base Scenario, United States: 2015-2024
Residential Electricity Prices for EV Charging Services by State, United States: 2015-2024
Residential Electricity Prices by Province, Canada: 2015-2024
LD PEV Sales by Scenario, United States: 2015-2024
LD PEVs in Use by Scenario, United States: 2015-2024
LD PEV Sales by Scenario, Canada: 2015-2024
LD PEVs in Use by Scenario, Canada: 2015-2024
LD Vehicle Sales by State, United States: 2015-2024
LD PEV Sales by State and Scenario, United States: 2015-2024
LD PEVs in Use by State and Scenario, United States: 2015-2024
LD PEV Sales by Top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas and Scenario, United States: 2015-2024
LD PEVs in Use by Top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas and Scenario, United States: 2015-2024
LD PEV Sales by Selected Utility Service Area and Scenario, United States: 2015-2024
LD PEVs in Use by Selected Utility Service Area and Scenario, United States: 2015-2024
LD Vehicle Sales by Province, Canada: 2015-2024
LD PEV Sales by Province and Scenario, Canada: 2015-2024
LD PEVs in Use by Province and Scenario, Canada: 2015-2024
LD PEV Sales by Top Nine Cities and Scenario, Canada: 2015-2024
LD PEVs in Use by Top Nine Cities and Scenario, Canada: 2015-2024
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